What does Jake Arrieta have left in the tank?

 Last night it was reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network that the Cubs and former Cy Young Winner Jake Arrieta were close to a reunion. According to Patrick Mooney of the Athletic the deal is for one year and will pay the righty $6 million. Arrieta, 34, is coming off a injury shortened 2020 season.

The Cubs first acquired Arrieta from the Orioles in early July 2013 in the infamous Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger for Pedro Strop and Arrieta deal. He almost immediately became a key part of the Cubs rotation and was a key starting pitcher for the 2016 Cubs team that ended a 108-year drought. 

In a three season stretch from 2014-16 Arrieta was one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. He started 89 games posting a 2.42 ERA throughout 583 innings he struck out 593 while walking 165. He threw two no-hitters and won a Cy Young Award in that span while starting seven postseason games.

His second half of 2015 may be one of the most dominant pitching performances of all time, in 100.1 innings pitched after the All-Star break he allowed only nine earned runs while striking out 103 and walking only 20. He held opposing hitters to a .150/.203/.205 line and it seemed like every time he took the bump he had a legitimate chance to throw a no-hitter (which he did do against the Dodgers).

Arrieta departed the Cubs after a slightly down, but still fairly good 2017 and signed a three year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. He saw his numbers decline significantly for the Phillies as he started just 64 games while battling various hamstring and elbow issues.

In those 64 starts he posted a 4.36 ERA in 352.2 innings while striking out just 280 while walking 124. That includes a very rough 2020 that saw him post a 5.08 ERA in 44.1 innings pitched while striking out only 32 batters and walking 16. He no longer has the overpowering stuff that allowed him to dominate with the Cubs and it shows.

The big culprit in Arrietas decline has been the huge loss of velocity. His sinker averaged just 92 MPH which is a far cry from the 95.3 MPH during his Cy Young season. Hitters were not fooled by the pitch as they hit .402 with 11 extra base hits against it while swinging and missing just 7.9 percent of the time.

He just doesn't fool batters as much as he used to, his 16.8 strikeout percentage was his worst since he was a 24-year old rookie and he ranked in the lower half among pitchers for both whiff percentage and limiting hard contact. 

The trends have not been good and Cubs fans should definitely not expect Arrieta to return back to his dominant form, but if he can reinvent himself to become more of a contact management guy like Kyle Hendricks he can still be a decent starter. The velocity decline is a problem, but Cubs pitchers have shown in recent years that you don't need velocity to be a good starting pitcher.

Cubs bring back Andrew Chafin

 According to Zach Buchanan of The Athletic the Cubs are bringing back 30-year old LHP Andrew Chafin on a big league contract that will pay him $2.25 million in 2021 and include a $5.25 million mutual option according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

The Cubs acquired Chafin at the trade deadline for a PTBNL that eventually turned into being infielder Ronny Simon. Chafin only made four appearances with the Cubs as he was recovering from a finger sprain when they acquired him. He pitched fairly well allowing just one run in three innings while striking out three and walking one. Of course the only run he allowed was a walk off home run, but he does have a history of success in the big leagues especially against lefties. In his career lefties have posted a .230/.306/.311 line in 546 career plate appearances.

Overall his body of work for 2020 was a mixed bag, he was solid in his limited Cubs sample size, but he struggled for the Diamondbacks with the tune of a 8.10 ERA in a very small sample size of 6.2 innings pitched. One thing to pay attention to for next season is his strikeout rate as he posted the best strikeout rate of his career striking out 13 of the 45 hitters he faced.

Chafin throws fairly hard for a leftty with a four seam fastball that averages 93.6 MPH, but it wasn't a really effective pitch for him in 2020 as batters hit .375 with a 10.7 whiff percentage with the pitch. His most effective pitch has been a slider which batters have batted under .200 against his entire career and induces a whiff nearly half the time.

The money is a big larger than what you would expect, but it seems like the baseball budget has suddenly opened after what seems like a couples years of squeezing. Still though, it's nice to see the Cubs making moves that seems like they are going to attempt to win a division that they feel is winnable and before they lose some key players.

Chafin isn't a world-beater and isn't going to win any awards, but he has a track record of being an above average reliever and helps a Cubs bullpen that will definitely need a ton of depth going into the season.

Cubs sign interesting bounceback candidate with Trevor Williams

 In a move to shake up their shaky starting pitching the Cubs have signed former Pirates RHP Trevor Williams according to Evan Altman of the Cubs Insider. The deal is pending a physical, but once completed will pay Williams $2.5 million according to Jon Heyman.

Williams, 28, opted for free agency after being designated for assignment by the Pirates after an incredibly disappointing 2020 season. In 11 starts Williams allowed a 6.18 ERA in 55.1 innings pitched allowing an alarming 15 home runs along with 49 strikeouts and 21 walks. Blaming the shortened season would be fair, but he also had a disappointing 2019 campaign as well posting a 5.38 ERA while showing the same issue with home runs and being very hittable in general.

However, Williams has had a success as recently as 2018 where he threw 170.2 innings with a 3.11 ERA, and while he only struck out 126 batters with a below average whiff rate, he did do a good job of limiting hard contact ranking as among the best pitchers in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage. 

Like the rest of his potential rotation mates Williams is not exactly a hard-thrower with a four-seam fastball that averages 91.5 MPH that he throws 51 percent of the time. He works off the fastball with a slider in the lower 80s and a mid-80s change-up. He also throws a sinker and curveball sparingly. 

What's interesting is that in his breakout 2018 season he actually used the sinker as his secondary pitch and the slider was used just 15 percent of the time, but his sinker was probably his worst pitch, while his slider was the most used put-away pitch and induced a whiff nearly 30 percent of the time. Starting in 2019 he begun using the slider much more and the sinker significantly less to mixed results.

 In 2020 the slider was hit around to a .348 batting average against, but it's worth noting that Baseball Savant says the expected batting average against the pitch was .232. When batters made contact they only hit it at a 85.6 MPH rate with a launch angle of only 5. Despite the struggles with the pitch he also induced a whiff 39.8 percent of the time. If he can get his slider right it has the potential to be an excellent put-away pitch for Williams.

This is a really shrewd move going for an upside guy like Williams. The rotation still has question marks, but if Williams can bounceback he will be a key member of the rotation. What's even better is that he has one more season of arbitration eligibility left so if the Cubs like what they see he will be around for another season, but if they don't they will be able to cut ties.

Cubs add OF Joc Pederson

In a bit of a surprise due to the Cubs alleged money issues the team has signed outfielder Joc Pederson to one year deal worth $7 million. The deal was initially reported by Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Joel Sherman provided the financial details along with the inclusion of a 2022 mutual option.

Pederson struggled through a rough 2020 season with a .190/.285/.397 line along with seven home runs in 138 plate appearances, but he was not nearly the only player that struggled in the weird 2020 season so it's fair to give him a pass especially given his previous track record. He is coming off a two year stretch between 2018-19 where he hit .249/.331/.530 along with an impressive 61 home runs in 957 plate appearances. 

He is a very similar hitter to Kyle Schwarber, but one thing that he is significantly better at is making contact. Although 2020 saw Pedersons zone contact rate drop his career rate of 79 percent is still better than Schwarbers 76 percent mark. You can see the difference in strikeout rate as well, with Pederson striking out 24.2 percent of the time in his career with 132 per 162 games, while Schwarber has struck out 28 percent of the time with 174 per 162 games.

If there is one thing Pederson cannot do it is hit lefties. He has accumulated just 385 plate appearances against southpaws in his career and has managed to hit just .191/.266/.310 with only nine home runs and 111 strikeouts compared to 36 walks. Plain and simple, he sucks against lefties, and it's possible he finds himself in a platoon with Phil Ervin (who has an .811 OPS against lefties). It is interesting that Jeff Passan mentions Pedersons opportunity to play everyday which suggests that he could at least get a chance with lefties, but based on his track record any experiment like that will not last long.

Defensively, Pederson will most likely spend most of his time in left field, but he has also played most of his big league innings in center field so it's definitely a possibility to see him there as well. He won't wow you on defense with decent range, but he lacks the arm that Schwarber had. A Pederson-Happ-Heyward outfield has a lot of promise, but there is still some work the Cubs can do to add some depth.

The Cubs roster still has a lot of holes, especially in pitching, but it's worth noting that David Kaplan tweeted that Tom Ricketts recently increased the player payroll. He mentions how the Cubs view the division as "winnable", which makes sense when you consider that no one in the NL Central has made any significant improvements and teams like the Pirates and Reds have both lost key contributors. The Cubs still have some very good players, especially on offense, and adding Pederson gives them a very legit power bat to replace Kyle Schwarber.

Cubs sign RHP Kohl Stewart

 The Chicago Cubs announced today that they have signed RHP Kohl Stewart to a major league contract for the 2021 season.

The former fourth overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, Stewart chose to opt out of the 2020 season and was granted free agency by the Baltimore Orioles at the conclusion of the season.

Stewart, 26, has made 17 appearances (six starts) between 2018-19 for the Minnesota Twins. In those appearances he has posted a 4.79 ERA in 62 innings, he was very hittable as hitters collected 63 hits (including 6 home runs) while he struck out just 34 batters.

The sample size is limited, but he has shown much more success as a reliever with a 3.48 ERA across 33.2 innings pitched along with striking out 20, although that does come with a concerning 1.67 K-BB ratio.

He's not going to blow away batters, but his 92 MPH fastball would actually make him one of the harder throwers in the Cubs rotation especially compared to Kyle Hendricks (87 MPH), Zach Davies (88 MPH), and Alec Mills (90 MPH).

He throws the fastball about 55 percent of the time along with a slider that he uses about 35 percent of the time, he also throws a curveball and change-up, but they are both thrown less than ten percent of the time to not exactly inspiring results.

It seems like his future is destined for the bullpen with his lack of an effective third pitch, but the Cubs are incredibly starved for pitching and he is young enough that there is still the possibility that there is some untapped potential that can be unlocked.

Cubs to sign Austin Romine

 The Cubs added to their catching depth today as they have inked veteran catcher Austin Romine to a one-year deal according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the deal is pending a physical. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports the deal is worth $1.5 million.

With the trade of Victor Caratini, a backup catcher was a pressing concern for the Cubs and after missing out on Jason Castro they make a solid signing with Romine.

Romine, 31, struggled with the bat for the Tigers in 2020 hitting just .238/.259/.323 in 37 games and 135 plate appearances. It's worth noting that he was hitting .291/.308/.418 going into September, but after a knee injury that required him to miss a few games he came back and went just 8-51 with only one extra base hit and two talks to 24 strikeouts,

Although he doesn't have much of a reputation as a hitter, he has a track record as a pretty solid defender as he saved a projected 8 runs from his pitch framing between 2017-19 and getting around 50 percent of the pitches he received called for a strike.

The veteran catcher will never be known as much of a hitter with a lifetime .639 OPS and wRC+ of 54, but he is a pretty solid defensive catcher which will be important especially given all the question marks surrounding the Cubs pitching as of now.

Despite all the question marks surrounding the Cubs future, they are actually in a really good position when it comes to the catching position. Willson Contreras is a top-5 catcher in all of baseball and Romine is a solid back up, but they also got Miguel Amaya who has been ranked as a top 100 prospect in all of baseball, and interesting names such as Ethan Hearn in the lower minors.

Yu Darvish has been traded

 In a move that will no doubt upset many Cubs fans the Cubs have traded 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish and his personal catcher Victor Caratini to the San Diego Padres in exchange for 27-year old RHP Zach Davies and four other young prospects according to Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic.

Darvish was nothing short of amazing in 2020 finishing as the runner-up to Trevor Bauer for the NL Cy Young award. In 76 innings Darvish posted a 2.01 ERA striking out an impressive 93 while walking just 17. Darvish signed a six-year contract prior to the 2018 season and had become a fan favorite thanks in part to his excellent pitching after a rocky start, but also due to his interactions with fans on social media. As good as he was, he clearly didn't fit the Cubs long-term plans and they felt they could "maximize" value, although clearly the front office and the fans have a different perception of his value.

Headed to the Padres is Victor Caratini as well, he struggled significantly with the bat hitting just .241/.333/.328 in 132 plate appearances showing very little power along with ranking in the 34th percentile for exit velocity and the seventh percentile for expected slugging. He had developed quite a rapport behind the dish with Darvish and with the Cubs depth at catching it's no surprised to see him moved. Caratini did post a 108 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 2019, so it's not like he's been unable to hit at the big league level.

For the Cubs they are getting a nice pitcher back in Zach Davies who posted a 2.73 ERA in 69.1 innings for the Friars in 2020. He's a similarly-molded pitcher to Kyle Hendricks with a fastball that averages only 88 MPH along with good control numbers. He has had consistent success limiting hard contact, but the Cubs only have control over him through this upcoming season and he is projected to earn anywhere between $6.3-$10.6 million according to MLBTR.

The four prospects the Cubs are getting: 17-year old SS Reginald Preciado, 20-year old SS Yeison Santana, 18-year old OF Owen Caissie, and 18-year old OF Ismael Mena are all considered lottery tickers as none of them have a single at-bat above rookie ball and two of them (Caissie and Mena) don't have any sort of professional statistics recorded.

On the surface this looks like an incredibly underwhelming haul for the Cubs as Preciado ranks as the highest prospect traded and he ranked just 11th on MLB.coms Top 30 Padres prospects, but it is worth noting that the Padres system is considered incredibly deep and they have a lot of riches to deal from.

Despite that it is incredibly disappointing that the Cubs are getting just their 11th, 13th, 15th, and 16th prospects. It was assumed from the outset that their top two prospects MacKanzie Gore and CJ Abrams were not part of the deal, but #4 prospect catcher Luis Campusano was rumored to be a part of the deal so it is very disappointing to not see him be a part of the final deal.

It seems like the Cubs are prioritizing quantity over quality in this one, which is only great if it pays off. They are sacrificing their chance to get a much more proven prospect to take a chance on hitting a home run on a lower level guy This also all but confirms the Cubs will likely be going into another long rebuilding stretch as all of these prospects they acquired are years off the big league level and will require a lot of development.

Cubs sign Jonathan Holder

The Cubs have announced they have signed RHP Jonathan Holder to a non-guaranteed contract that will pay him $750,000 if he makes the big league roster according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. . Holder, 27, has struggled the past two seasons, but has had success in the past.

Holder was non-tendered by the Yankees after posting a 4.98 ERA in 18 appearances while striking out just 14 batters in 21.2 innings pitched compared to 11 walks. He just plain and simply didn't fool anyone as batters hit .281/.356/.449 against him. 

It's worth noting that his numbers are inflated thanks to a dreadful final three appearances of the season. In his first 16 appearances he posted a 2.08 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 17.1 innings pitched compared to eight walks, but in his final three appearances he allowed eight runs in four and a third innings striking out none and walking three while giving up a pair of home runs.

Hitters just plain and simple made more contact against him and stopped chasing pitches out of the zone. Even before his end of season collapse his strikeout numbers were down and walks were up. His zone contact rate jumped from 80 percent to 85.4 percent and his chase percentage dropped from 31.1 percent to 26.1 percent. His velocity was basically the same and he even saw a sharp increase in his groundball rate, so what gives?

Holder struggled in 2019 as well with a 6.31 ERA in 34 appearances and 41.1 innings pitched, but he also posted by far the best strikeout numbers of his career along with keeping his walk numbers in line with his career norms. His struggles can be partly explained by a huge spike in his home run rate and a horrifically unlucky 53.6 left on base percentage.

He does have a history of success in the past as he posted a 3.42 ERA in 97 appearances split between the 2017-18 season for the Yankees with his best trait being his control as he walked just 27 batters in 105.1 innings pitched. 

Overall its a great no-risk move for the Cubs, they're getting a young, first-year arbitration eligible reliever that has had success in the past on a very cheap contract. Now the Cubs will get a chance to look under the hood and see if they can reunlock the potential he's shown in the past.

Where does Jackie Bradley Jr. fit in the Cubs plans?

 A report from Jon Morosi of Fox Sports connected the Chicago Cubs to free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. It feels like the first time in a while the Cubs have been connected to a upper tier free agent, but how much of a fit is he for the Cubs right now?

Bradley, 30, is coming off his best offensive season since 2016 posting a .814 OPS in 55 games and 217 plate appearances he also hit 7 home runs and overall that translated to a 119 wRC+. Bradleys success comes from a notable improvement in his contact rate that saw him make contact in the zone 77.6 of the time compared to 73.8 percent of the time in 2019. His line drive rate of 23.6 percent was still below league average, and he saw a sharp increase in his ground ball rate to the highest of his career. His offensive success seems to be fueled by a career high .343 BABIP that is bound to come down in 2021.

His average exit velocity is on a three year downward trend and he is coming off a three year stretch of a .726, .717,. and .738 OPS. The improvements in his contact rate shouldn't be ignored, but it's not like he was barreling the ball consistently, his hard hit percentage was actually the lowest of his career and his .299 xwOBA suggested that a lot of his success was smoke and mirrors.

Despite the questions on offense, there is zero doubt on his defensive abilities as he is an absolutely elite center fielder with seven outs above average in the shortened season and he peaked at 15 during the 2017 season. He has a ton of range thanks to his speed, and would be am upgrade over Ian Happ, who would most likely move to left field if the Cubs do sign Bradley

He also turns 31 in April of 2021 and has seen a small but slightly noticeable drop in his sprint speed, which is bound to get even worse as he gets older. Considering he plays a position that requires a ton of range and athleticism it's hard to see the Cubs wanting to commit to him on more than a two or three year deal. A short team deal would make sense for the Cubs considering they are in a bit of a transitional period with several core players becoming free agents after both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

Overall it's hard to see the Cubs making a strong push to sign Bradley Jr., unless they can get him on a modestly cheap and short contract. The Cubs do have a need in the outfield, but it's also fair to question whether he can repeat his offensive success. The defense would most likely be as good as ever, but he is also at an age where you start to wonder how long that is going to last.

Cubs take Gray Fenter in Rule V draft

 Today was the Rule V draft which gives MLB organizations the opportunity to select an unprotected player from a different organization.

The Cubs drafted 24-year old RHP Gray Fenter from the Baltimore Orioles organization, and he is certainly an interesting pick. He has not thrown a pitch above A-ball despite being a seventh round pick in the 2015 draft.

He's pitched quite well at the A-ball level with a 2.90 ERA among 36 appearances (19 starts) and 121 innings. He has shown good stuff striking out 123 and allowing just four home runs, he did walk 56 batters, but he made up for it by allowing just 92 hits. 

If there had been a minor league season in 2020 he likely would've been able to get up to the Double-A level, but no one really knows what sort of progress he has made since the 2019 season. It's a good "why not?" move for the Cubs as they get to take a flier on a young arm who hasn't really gotten a chance to prove himself at the upper levels

In a scouting report for Birdwatcher, Nick Stevens described him as: "That curveball is something else. His big 12-6 curve that works well with a low-90s fastball coupled to produce an effective outing to kick off his 2019 campaign. He needed 63 pitches to get through his first outing, throwing 35 strikes. Of those 35 strikes, 12 were swings and misses (34%). Left-handed hitters went just 2-12 against the right-handed Fenter,"

Cubs lose Eugene Emeralds

 After six seasons with the Chicago Cubs organization the Eugene Emeralds are longer affiliated with the Chicago Cubs and will become an affiliate of the San Francisco Giants organization according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.

The Emeralds had been affiliated with the Cubs since the 2015 season and had won the Northwest League title twice in both 2016 and 2018. 

The full statement from the Emeralds:

"The Eugene Emeralds would like to give our sincere gratitude to the Chicago Cubs organization for being an outstanding partner for the past 6 years. The immediate impact the Cubs had on this organization is undeniable. In 2016, in only our second season of affiliation with Chicago, the Emeralds ended a 41-year Northwest League Championship drought posting a final record of 54-22. The success continued in 2017 with another trip to the championship round and again in 2018 where the Emeralds won the Northwest League title. During those past 6 seasons, our fans have witnessed future and current Major League Baseball stars like Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Adbert Alzolay, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Adbert Alzolay and Chase Strumpf start their careers right here in Eugene. We can’t imagine there being a better era to have partnered with the Cubs as they not only ended our championship drought but also experienced their historic World Series Championship in 2016.

From past baseball legends like Bob Boone, Greg Lizinski, Tom Gordon, Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt to the hundreds of recent Emerald alumi, Eugene, Oregon has been a proving ground for baseball. To say we are excited for the next chapter of Ems Baseball is putting it mildly. We are absolutely thrilled to have baseball back in 2021 and cannot wait to showcase our award-winning gameday experience for our fans at PK Park next year."

In other Cubs affiliate news they have extended an invitation to the Iowa Cubs, Tennessee Smokies, Myrtle Beach Pelicans, and South Bend Cubs to remain with the organization, all of these offers are expected to be accepted. Notably, the Pelicans and Cubs will switch levels with the Pelicans becoming a Low-A team and the Cubs becoming a High-A team.

Cubs hire Willie Harris as third base coach

 With Will Venable departing for the Boston Red Sox the Cubs had a vacancy for their third base coach position, and according to Buster Olney of ESPN they are hiring former MLB utilityman Willie Harris to fill that role.

Harris, 42, spent 12 seasons split between seven teams hitting .238/.327/.346 in 2816 career plate appearances. He was quite useful in the fact that he was a very versatile defensively getting significant playing time in both the infield and outfield. He was respectable on the basepaths as well going 107-147 on steal attempts (a 73 percent success rate).

After his playing career he started his minor league coaching career for the Chicago White Sox organization in 2017 as the manager of the Winston-Salem Dash. After the season concluded he moved to the San Francisco Giants organization and spent two years as the manager for the Double-A Richmond Flying Squirrels. 

After 2019 he moved to the Cincinnati Reds as their new base running and outfield coordinator, and now will take over a position that has been a bit of a revolving door being the third different coach since the conclusion of the 2017 season when Gary Jones departed.

Report: Len Kasper leaving Cubs

 This will come as a shock to many, but Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that the long time TV voice of the Cubs Len Kasper will depart the Cubs organization to become the new radio play-by-play announcer for the Chicago White Sox.

Kasper joined the Cubs from the Florida Marlins organization after the 2004 season as the successor to Chip Caray and he has been in that role ever since. He saw the peak of the Ramirez-Soriano-Lee era where they won back-to-back division crowns, he saw the Theo Epstein era play out from start to finish, and was the TV voice of the 2016 team that won the World Series.

Losing Kasper is a momental blow to the organization, he is by far one of the best play-by-play broadcasters in baseball and has basically become synonymous with the Cubs organization. His use of analytics was great for the hardcore fans and helped increase the understanding of more casual fans.

Here are some of his highlights throughout the years:

Aramis Ramirez walk-off

Fukudome Opening Day Home Run

Carlos Zambrano completes his no-hitter

Kris Bryant walks off the Rockies

Three non-tendered players the Cubs should pursue

 Yesterday was the deadline to tender a contract to arbitration eligible players which means we saw 56 new players become free agents. Among those is several players that could be of value to the Cubs in 2021.

1. Archie Bradley, RHP

The veteran reliever was non-tendered despite posting a 2.95 ERA (3.67 xFIP) in 16 appearances and 18.1 innings pitched, he did make $4 million in 2020 and was due for a raise so it's possible the Reds just felt like he wouldn't have been worth the salary. It's worth nothing he posted his lowest strikeout rate since 2016 striking out 24.7 percent of hitters, but he also posted the best walk rate of his career walking just 4.1 percent of hitters. One concern is that he allowed an obscenely high line drive rate in 2020, with 35.3 percent of batted balls being considered line drives, and combined with a sharp drop in his groundball rate  could suggest bad results in the future if the trend continues.

He did see a drop in his velocity as his fastball went from averaging 95.5 MPH in 2019 to 94.2 in 2020, but despite that is was actually a more effective with hitters slugging .325 with a .275 wOBA average compared to .459 and .349 respectively. The concern would lie in his curveball which went from 82.1 MPH to 80 MPH on the dot and saw some concerning results. The swing-and-miss rate in the pitch was almost halved which means hitters were making contact which the pitch at a much higher rate, it was still an effective pitch as hitters posted a .238 wOBA average, but that is something to pay attention to.

Just 28 he is likely to command a lot of interest in the free agent market, he has been one of the more effective relievers over the past few years with a 2.95 ERA in 152 ERA+ in 221 games since the start of the 2017 season. I'm not sure if the Cubs are going to be willing to pay the salary he will likely command, but he would go a long way towards providing some stability towards the back of the pen.

2. Eddie Rosario, OF

The non-tender of Kyle Schwarber created a hole in the Cubs outfield, and it's one that could potentially be filled by the Twins cast-off. The 29-year old outfielder hit .257/.316/.476 in 231 plate appearances for the Twins. He didn't show much in the hit tool or plate discipline department, but he did show very good power that would somewhat make up for the absence of Schwarber.

Rosario, however, is a butcher in the field so he would likely be reduced to a designated hitter if that rule sticks in the National League in 2021 (which seems unlikely). In 2019 he was worth -18 outs above average in left field, which could be an anomaly considering he posted -2 in 2018 and was a positive +2 in 2017, in the small sample size of 2020 he was worth -1, so obviously he isn't going to win any Gold Gloves, but it's also possible that 2019 was just a fluke and he realistically isn't that bad.

He's would not fully be able to replace the production of Schwarber, especially since his career walk rate is a Javy Baez-esque 4.7 percent, but his ability to drive the ball makes him potentially a very solid addition to a Cubs lineup that ranked just 9th in home runs and just lost one of their best sluggers.

3. Carlos Rodon, LHP

The former 3rd overall pick in 2014 has struggled to establish himself for the White Sox, and it's possible a change of scenery or even a move to the bullpen could work wonders for the southpaw.

Rodon has struggled with arm injuries having had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and he missed over a month in 2020 with a shoulder issue. When he was on the mound he wasn't very effective, in 11 appearances (9 starts) combined from 2019-20 he posted an uninspiring 5.74 ERA allowing 27 earned runs in 42.1 innings pitched, he did show good strikeout numbers with 52 punchouts and his 3.85 FIP suggests that maybe he was a little unfortunate in his results.

His fastball velocity has dipped significantly from it's peak of 94.2 MPH in 2016 to just 92.8 MPH in 2020, it's possible that it's just because he's working his way back from injury, or whether the injuries have impacted his velocity that much. He's just a three pitcher pitcher with a four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup combo, he has thrown a sinker in the past but threw in just three times in 2019 and not once in 2020. If the velocity drop is permanent he could be effective in the bullpen as he might be able to get a slight bump in velocity since he won't be expected to throw 90+ pitches an appearance.

He has had past success as a big league starter, and we all know the Cubs need pitching depth. He isn't likely to be very expensive due to his struggled the past two seasons combined with questions about his health and whether his arm will be able to stand the rigors of a full big league season

Cubs non-tender Kyle Schwarber among others

 Although it had been speculated, it became a reality tonight as the Cubs announced  their tender decisions, and included in the non-tenders is veteran outfielder Kyle Schwarber.

Schwarber struggled in 2020 hitting .188/.308/.393 in 224 plate appearances playing in 59 of the Cubs 60 games while smacking 11 home runs. While it wasn't an ideal stat line, Schwarber was coming off of a big 2019 season that saw him post a 120 wRC+ and smack a career-high 38 home runs. The former first round pick has smashed 121 home runs over 2108 plate appearances in the big leagues.

Although he has certainly had his issues at the big league level Schwarber is a very capable big league bat and has developed into a serviceable defender in left field so it's frustrating to see him non-tendered when he was projected to earn somewhere between $7-$9 million in his final year of arbitration and paints an even dimmer look at their financial situation.

A reunion is certainly possible, but Schwarber is likely to attract a lot of attention due to his skillset and him being just 27-years old. It's hard to tell how much to read into his 2020 struggles due to the uniqueness of the season, but it's worth noting that his average exit velocity was the second highest of his career and ranked in the top five percent of all of baseball. 

His struggles seemed to be tied into a sharp increase in his ground ball rate which spiked from 38.8 percent to 51.2 percent in 2020. If Schwarber wants to succeed he's got to be able to hit the ball in the air at a much higher clip as his power is his most valuable asset.

Schwarber also leaves a legacy of being one of the best hitters in Cubs postseason history. In 24 games and 79 plate appearances he hit .288/.405/.576 with six home runs which is tied with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo for first all time. He had some notable moments including his two-run shot in the Wild Card game and his memorable scoreboard home run against the Cardinals in 2015. But nothing will be as impressive as what he did in 2016.

On April 7th in an early season matchup against the Diamondbacks Schwarber collided with Dexter Fowler tearing his ACL and LCL and was declared out for the remainder of the season. But after a long rehab process he was cleared to take at-bats for the Cubs Arizona Fall League team. So on October 22nd Schwarber was taking at bats in preparation for a potential World Series comeback as the Cubs clinched their first pennant in 71 years in Chicago.

When the World Series roster was named Schwarber was listed and one of the more unbelievable sports injury comebacks was complete. Schwarber was the designated hitter for the road games that series appearing in five games and going an impressive 7-17 driving in two runs and scoring two. His single to open up the tenth inning of Game Seven set up the go ahead run for the Cubs as they ended a 108-year title drought.

Elsewhere former 2012 first round pick Albert Almora Jr. was also non-tendered. He was the first draft pick of the Theo Epstein era and at one point ranked as the #18 prospect by Baseball Prospectus, but he has never been able to fully put it together at the big league level. In 489 games he has slashed .271/.308/.398 while not being the most impressive center fields with below average speed for a center fielder. His numbers especially cratered the past two seasons where he has hit .230/.270/.366 in 397 plate appearances. He just didn't have the plate discipline to last at the big league level, and when he did hit he wasn't hitting the ball hard enough to do a lot of damage. He will also have a special place in Cubs fans hearts as he pinch-ran for Schwarber in Game Seven and scored the go-ahead run after tagging from first on a fly ball out. He certainly has potential to contribute as a reserve big league outfielder, but it has become increasingly clear it wasn't going to happen with the Cubs.

Mid-season acquisition Jose Martinez was also non-tendered. The Cubs had hoped he would be a potential lefty masher off the bench, but instead he went 0-21 with the Cubs and that combined with his very poor defense made his non-tender a non-surprise.

It was a slight surprise to see Cubs MVP-vote getter Ryan Tepera non-tendered as he was fairly solid for the Cubs posting a 3.92 ERA in 21 appearances for the club. He struck out an impressive 31 in 20.2 innings pitched and while he walked 12 he was able to cancel that out by being hard to square up allowing just 17 hits and two home runs. He seemed to be one of the more reliable members of the Cubs bullpen at times so it's possible a reunion is certainly in the cards.

The Cubs also announced they avoided arbitration with Colin Rea, Dan Winkler, and Kyle Ryan while they tendered a contract to Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Victor Caratini, and Ian Happ.

Cubs claim Robert Stock off waivers

 The Cubs made a waiver claim today acquiring 31-year old RHP Robert Stock off waivers from the Boston Red Sox according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN.

Stock made 10 appearances for the Red Sox in the abbreviated season allowing seven earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched. He struggled at preventing baserunners allowing 16 hits while walking 10. Stock seemed to be a victim of some bad luck as hitters had a .421 BABIP against him last year which combined with a 52.6 groundball rate could suggest he is due for some positive regression.

One big positive is that he is a hard thrower with a fastball that averaged 96.8 MPH and ranked in the 94th percentile of all big league pitchers. He works off the fastball with a slider that he threw 22.9 percent of the time and a changeup that he threw 82.2 percent of the time. He seemed to have a problem confusing hitters as they chased his pitches just 18 percent of the time and the both swung and made contact at pitches in the zone above the big league average, which combined with his below average walk rate is a recipe for disaster.

Stock has made 52 appearances as part of three big league seasons posting a 4.24 ERA in 63.2 innings pitched while striking out 67 and walking 31.The former 2009 2nd round pick by the Cardinals bounced around several organizations before finally making the big leagues with the Padres in 2018, he bounced on waivers to the Phillies and then finally landed with the Red Sox in July of this year.

It's unlikely the Cubs will be major players in free agency so moves like this are going to be common. The Cubs have had some success with reclamation projects over the year and Stock is a solid depth addition to the bullpen and he might be able to find more success with a better defense behind him.

Cubs continue to indicate a "heavy restart"

 As the 2020 offseason continues the rumors continue to linger about the Cubs trying to blow things up, and with the resignation of Theo Epstein on Tuesday, it only seems to lend credence to those rumors. 

Buster Olney of ESPN reported on Sunday that "Cubs are signaling there will be significant turnover on the roster, with a willingness to move almost any veteran" and last night Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested that "a hard restart could be in order" according to an unnamed National League executive.

The question is who do the Cubs trade, and can they get good value out of them?

Kris Bryant is the first name that'll immediately come to mind, the soon-to-be 29-year old was awful to say the least in 2020. The former NL MVP hit just .209/.293/.351 with five home runs in 34 games and 147 plate appearances while battling finger, oblique, and wrist injuries. Most concerning, he saw his strikeout rate climb to the highest rate since his rookie year, while his walk rate plummeted to a career low 8.2 percent.

Bryant is clearly a very good player when he is healthy, as he hit 30+ home runs and had a 130+ wRC+ as recently as 2019, but he has also missed time in each of the past three seasons due to various injuries, and his numbers dip when he is battling any sort of ailment.

It's hard to see the Cubs trading Bryant this offseason unless they are seriously overwhelmed by an offer, his trade value is likely at an all-time low and other teams will want to see if he can bounce back in 2021. He is a free agent after the 2021 season so his value is even further deflated by the fact that he is potentially just a rental.

Javier Baez is another possibility, but he is in a similar situation to Bryant when you consider he's also a free agent after next season. He had an absolutely atrocious 2020, but he doesn't have the injury excuse to fall back on. Baez looked legitimately lost at the plate at times in 2020 as his .238 on-base percentage was the worst of all qualified players. The Cubs are likely in a similar position with Baez where they could hold on to him and see if he bounces back and builds some trade value.

Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish are also possibilities, but it would likely come with the Cubs having to eat a portion of their salaries in order of unload their contracts. It's hard to see either of these guys going as the Cubs are unlikely to receive equal value for either of them, although Darvish would certainly fetch much more than Heyward thanks to finishing 2nd in Cy Young voting.

One player it is hard to see the Cubs trading is Anthony Rizzo, as he is considered the heart and soul of this team, and has been a consistent force for the team for almost 10 years. He has some question marks long-term thanks to his back issues the past few seasons, but it would be hard to see him in any uniform other than the Cubs.

It is a high possibility that Kyle Schwarber is traded, he's consistently been one of the Cubs best power threats over the past few years, but he's also struggled to hit for a consistent average and has a skill set that is fairly replaceable. 

Although I feel it is unlikely, trading Willson Contreras is also a possibility. Top catching prospect Miguel Amaya is getting closer to being big league ready and the Cubs have some intriguing prospects at the lower level as well. Contreras posted a 109 wRC+ in 2020 along with completely turning around his framing metrics, it's highly possible he has the highest trade value of anyone on the club, but Contreras provides a ton of value to the Cubs now that might be hard to let go off.

I do not envy the position Jed Hoyer is in, he will have to make some very tough decisions for the organization that may hurt now, but will benefit the long-term future of the organization.

Theo Epstein has resigned

 You could see the writing on the wall for a while, but today the Chicago Cubs announced that Theo Epstein will step down as President of Baseball Operations on November 20th, and General Manager Jed Hoyer will take his position.

You could argue that the Cubs could've won more during his tenure, but ultimately they ended the longest championship drought in the history of professional sports and built an impressive core.

Obviously this will have major ramifications for the Cubs both on and off the field, but it is way too early to speculate what this will lead to for the team. Epstein and Cubs owner Tom Ricketts are scheduled to meet with the media later today.

Here is the full statement from the Cubs: 

"The Chicago Cubs today announced that Theo Epstein will step down from his role as President of Baseball Operations effective November 20 and depart the organization after nine seasons. Jed Hoyer, who joined the club in November 2011 as Executive Vice President/General Manager, will be named President of Baseball Operations.

“Theo and I have been communicating about this possible move for a couple of years, and we have been working together toward a transition that makes sense for the Cubs and for him,” said Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts. “The timing is right for a number of reasons, and most importantly we are both thrilled that Jed is the person succeeding Theo. We have had our most successful period in over a century under Theo’s leadership, and we are grateful for everything he has given to this organization and this city. Jed has been a big part of that success, too, and offers a combination of continuity and a fresh perspective that will serve us well as we look forward to another period of sustained success.”

“For the rest of my life, I will cherish having been part of the great Chicago Cubs organization during this historic period,” said Epstein. “All of the things that have made this experience so special — the fans, the players, the managers and coaches, ownership, my front office colleagues, the uniqueness of the Wrigley experience, the history — make it so tough to leave the Cubs. But I believe this is the right decision for me even if it’s a difficult one. And now is the right time rather than a year from now. The organization faces a number of decisions this winter that carry long-term consequences; those types of decisions are best made by someone who will be here for a long period rather than just one more year. Jed has earned this opportunity and is absolutely the right person to take over this baseball operation at such an important time.

“I am grateful to everyone with the Cubs: to the Ricketts family for this opportunity as well as for their loyalty; to the fans for their support and the depth of their emotional connection with the team; and to the players, coaches, staff and my front office colleagues for their friendship, excellence and dedication to helping us accomplish our initial goals of regular October baseball and a World Championship.”

“I have been so fortunate to work alongside Theo for 17 of the last 19 years,” said Hoyer. “I could not have had a better mentor or a more loyal and trusted friend. He has already changed two storied franchises with his passion, creativity, intellect and leadership. I have no question that the next chapters in his career will be equally impressive and impactful.

“I am thankful to the Ricketts family for bestowing me with the opportunity to lead the Cubs baseball operation.  For the last nine years, I have worked alongside so many dedicated colleagues with one goal in mind — to build a team and an organization that makes Cubs fans proud and provides them with memories of a lifetime. I am thrilled that this leadership transition will provide continuity to a department that has had tremendous successes over the past six seasons. Ultimately, this transition is about the future, and I look forward to constantly pushing the Cubs to evolve and grow to ensure that there is sustained success at Wrigley Field.”

After rebuilding seasons in 2012-14, Epstein’s Cubs have amassed 505 regular season victories since 2015, second-most in the N.L. and third-most in the majors behind only the Dodgers (528) and Astros (510). The Cubs are one of just four clubs to make at least five postseason appearances in the last six seasons, joining the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros.

Epstein, 46, joined the Cubs on October 25, 2011, and led the effort to restructure the Cubs’ Baseball Operations department. He acquired talent through trades (Anthony Rizzo, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Dexter Fowler), drafts (Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber) and free agency (Jon Lester, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward) that led to the 2016 World Series victory, ending the organization’s 108-year title drought. All but two of the 25 players on the Cubs 2016 World Series-winning roster were acquired under Epstein’s watch, including 13 via trade.

Epstein, who prior to joining Chicago led Boston to World Series titles in 2004 and 2007, departs the organization as one of just five executives all-time to lead multiple organizations to World Series titles. He is just the fourth to do so in both leagues, joining Hall of Famers Pat Gillick and John Schuerholz as well as Dave Dombrowski. Epstein, who was 30 during the 2004 World Series, remains the youngest general manager in baseball history to win a championship.

Hoyer, 46, enters his 20th season in baseball operations and his 10th with the Cubs. He has been involved in a leadership role in every aspect of the Cubs’ Baseball Operations department under Epstein, helping the organization revamp its amateur and professional scouting departments while creating and expanding the research and development analytics group. Starting in 2015 following the team’s rebuild, Cubs pitching has ranked second in the majors with a .235 opponent batting average and .690 opponent OPS while the team’s 3.66 ERA ranks third in that span. Cubs hitters in the last six seasons lead the N.L. and rank second in the majors with a .332 on-base percentage while their .755 OPS ranks fourth in the N.L.

Prior to joining the Cubs, Hoyer served as general manager of the Padres for the 2010-11 seasons, and in 2010 guided the club to its fourth 90-win campaign in the franchise’s 42-year history despite featuring the lowest payroll in baseball. At the 2010 All-Star break, he acquired six-time All-Star and 2002 A.L. MVP Miguel Tejada along with outfielder Ryan Ludwick. The 2010 squad had a 15-win improvement over the 2009 Padres club (75-87), the largest win improvement among any team in the majors that season.

Hoyer began his major league career with the Red Sox from 2002-09 and was actively involved in player development, major league scouting, quantitative analysis and advance scouting. He was a member of Epstein’s baseball operations department that won a pair of World Championships (2004 and 2007), advanced to four League Championship Series (2003, 2004, 2007 and 2008) and won 95 or more games six different seasons.

A native of Plymouth, N.H., Hoyer is a graduate of Wesleyan University, where he helped lead the Cardinals to the championship game of the NCAA Division III World Series in 1994 as a pitcher and shortstop.

The Javy Baez long-term concern

 Despite winning the division the 2020 Cubs season was an overall disappointment. Several key players had down seasons and the organization finds itself in a difficult position on where to go for the 2021 season. 

One of the more concerning slumps of the 2020 season was Javier Baez who had by far his worst season in the big leagues since his 52 game debut in 2014. In 59 games and 235 plate appearances Baez hit just .203/.238/.360 with just eight home runs and walking only seven times while striking out 75. He looked completely lost at the plate at times and pitchers took full advantage of that.

His batted ball data suggests he just wasn't making as loud contact as he usually does as his 89.4 MPH average exit velocity was the lowest since 2017, and his career high pop up rate of 8.7 percent came with a sacrifice to his line drive and fly ball rate. Most concerning, he struggled to drive the ball at the top of the zone with a 84.1 MPH average exit velocity in the top-third of the zone compared to 98.2 in 2019 and 95.8 in his MVP runner-up campaign in 2018.

Another big concern with Baez is his swing-and-miss problems. He actually posted the lowest chase rate since his rookie year, but when he did chase he made contact just 50 percent of the time which is well below the league average of 59 percent. Despite chasing less he posted the worst whiff rate of his career swinging and missing 38 percent of the time, well above the league average of 24 percent and continues a three year trend of that rate going up for him. It can suggest two things, both are not good. 1. He could be starting to lose some bat speed which would be a serious long term concern or 2. He was basically just guessing at the plate this year which already adds to the concern about his plate discipline.

In September, Baez claimed that the lack of in-game video affected his ability to make adjustments saying "It sucks. I make my adjustments during the game. I watch my swing, I watch where the ball was, where contact was. I'm really mad we don't have it," In-game video was taken away thanks to the Houston Astros cheating to win a World Series, and it's fair to wonder how much of an effect it had on hitters. The ability to look at the video immediately after an at bat had to have been incredibly helpful to hitters in making adjustments on the fly.

Defensively Baez was excellent as usual, he finally captured his first Gold Glove posting four outs above average and making 62 plays considered out of his zone. One thing that is worth paying attention to is his sprint speed, he went from sprinting to 28.6 feet per second in 2019 to 27.9 in 2020. It's a small drop, but as Baez is entering his age 28 season he is slowly getting to the point where his athleticism will start to decline and he will have to rely a lot more on baseball IQ and instinct to make plays.

The problem for the Cubs is that Baez has one more year left of arbitration eligibility before he is a free agent and the team will be forced to make a decision on what to do with him. Baez is beloved by fans thanks to his flashy plays and when he is actually hitting he is one of the more explosive players in the leagues, but it is fair to question whether his lack of plate discipline will be exploited more than it already is especially once his bat speed begins to decline.

2021 will be a crucial year for Baez. He will have to bounce back in a big way in order to earn a big contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects Baez to earn anywhere between $10-$11.9 million in 2021. Baez is not a non-tender candidate due to his previous success and the fact that 2020 was in general just a funky year for everyone, but beyond 2021 remains a question mark due to his struggles and the uncertainties surrounding the Cubs financial situation.

Breaking down the Marlins

 Tomorrow the Cubs will play their first playoff game since the 2018 National League Wild Card game. Their opponent in the three-game Wild Card series will be the Miami Marlins who are making their first playoff appearances since 2003 as the Florida Marlins (and we all know how that turned out for the Cubs). But who are these Marlins?

The Marlins finished 31-29 making the playoffs thanks to the fact that they finished second in the NL East. They were very lucky to reach that record as they scored 263 runs while allowing 304 to finish with a Pythagorean record of 26-34, but this is baseball and the playoffs are a crapshoot so don't take anything for granted.

By far the strength of the Marlins is their starting pitching. They've got an extremely formidable 1-2-3 led by 24-year old Pablo Lopez, 24-year old Sandy Alcantara, and 21-year old Sixto Sanchez. All three of them throw fastballs in the mid-90s, while not walking a ton of hitters, and that combination has the potential to give the Cubs hitters fits due to their contact deficiency.

On the flip side the bullpen for the Marlins is a glaring weakness, they finished with the third worst bullpen ERA in the National League at 5.50 and the 5.39 overall FIP doesn't paint a better picture either. They finished with the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball as they struck out just 18.1 percent of hitters while walking 11.4 percent which was the ninth highest rate in baseball.

They did have some nice individual seasons though as James Hoyt posted a 1.23 ERA (3.19 FIP) in 24 appearances along with 20 strikeouts to eight walks. Former Cub Brandon Kintzler had a 2.22 ERA in 24 appearances, but his 5.00 FIP along with a slightly high home run rate along with very little strikeouts suggest that he is due for some regression. Their other reliable guy is Brad Boxberger who had an ERA of exactly 3 in 23 appearances, but is slightly home run prone as he allowed three in 18 innings pitched along with eight walks.

On offense they are primarily carried by Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar, and Brian Anderson. They did pick up Starling Marte at the trade deadline, but he has struggled in Miami with a .286 OBP and 22-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112 plate appearances.

Rojas, 31, had a breakout year in 2020 posting a .304/.392/.496 line in 143 plate appearances along with four home runs and an impressive 18-16 strikeout to walk rate. He posted by far the highest ISO of his career beating out his previous career high by nearly 100 points. It doesn't even seem to be that much luck either as his .330 BABIP is higher than his .294 average, but isn't an absurd number. It just seems like he increased his launch angle and the results show it.

Although Aguilar is no longer the All-Star player he once was in 2018, he is still someone to be careful with. He hit eight home runs along with a .809 OPS and a .180 ISO so he's definitely no slouch at the dish. He's a very disciplined hitter and doesn't strike out much so the Cubs will have to try and keep the ball down and hope they don't leave something up in the zone that can be elevated.

At the hot corner Anderson has been one of the very few consistently reliable hitters for the Marlins over the past few years and that continued in 2020 as he posted a .255/.345/.465 line in 229 plate appearances along with a team leading 11 home runs. Anderson, however, can be exploited as he does strike out at a near 30 percent clip and his expected batting average of .228 along with a deflated exit velocity suggest he may not have been as good as his raw stats.

Elsewhere the Marlins have Matt Joyce, who is a very disciplined hitter, but doesn't hit for much power. It's the same story with Jon Berti who posted an impressive .388 OBP, but is dragged down by his .350 slugging. Garrett Cooper had a very nice season with a .283/.353/.500 line as the DH, but it came in just 133 plate appearances.

The biggest weak link in their starting lineup is likely catcher Jorge Alfaro, who posted a .226/.280/.344 line and isn't even a highly regarded defensive catcher. Their other option behind the dish is Chad Wallach who posted better pitch framing numbers, but might be an even worse hitter than Alfaro.

The Marlins are definitely a team not to be taken lightly, but they do have some weaknesses that can be exploited. Their biggest threat to the Cubs is their starting pitching, but if the Cubs can work at bats early and drive up the pitch count than they can get to the bullpen quickly where they have a much better chance to feast.