Yu Darvish has been traded

 In a move that will no doubt upset many Cubs fans the Cubs have traded 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish and his personal catcher Victor Caratini to the San Diego Padres in exchange for 27-year old RHP Zach Davies and four other young prospects according to Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic.

Darvish was nothing short of amazing in 2020 finishing as the runner-up to Trevor Bauer for the NL Cy Young award. In 76 innings Darvish posted a 2.01 ERA striking out an impressive 93 while walking just 17. Darvish signed a six-year contract prior to the 2018 season and had become a fan favorite thanks in part to his excellent pitching after a rocky start, but also due to his interactions with fans on social media. As good as he was, he clearly didn't fit the Cubs long-term plans and they felt they could "maximize" value, although clearly the front office and the fans have a different perception of his value.

Headed to the Padres is Victor Caratini as well, he struggled significantly with the bat hitting just .241/.333/.328 in 132 plate appearances showing very little power along with ranking in the 34th percentile for exit velocity and the seventh percentile for expected slugging. He had developed quite a rapport behind the dish with Darvish and with the Cubs depth at catching it's no surprised to see him moved. Caratini did post a 108 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 2019, so it's not like he's been unable to hit at the big league level.

For the Cubs they are getting a nice pitcher back in Zach Davies who posted a 2.73 ERA in 69.1 innings for the Friars in 2020. He's a similarly-molded pitcher to Kyle Hendricks with a fastball that averages only 88 MPH along with good control numbers. He has had consistent success limiting hard contact, but the Cubs only have control over him through this upcoming season and he is projected to earn anywhere between $6.3-$10.6 million according to MLBTR.

The four prospects the Cubs are getting: 17-year old SS Reginald Preciado, 20-year old SS Yeison Santana, 18-year old OF Owen Caissie, and 18-year old OF Ismael Mena are all considered lottery tickers as none of them have a single at-bat above rookie ball and two of them (Caissie and Mena) don't have any sort of professional statistics recorded.

On the surface this looks like an incredibly underwhelming haul for the Cubs as Preciado ranks as the highest prospect traded and he ranked just 11th on MLB.coms Top 30 Padres prospects, but it is worth noting that the Padres system is considered incredibly deep and they have a lot of riches to deal from.

Despite that it is incredibly disappointing that the Cubs are getting just their 11th, 13th, 15th, and 16th prospects. It was assumed from the outset that their top two prospects MacKanzie Gore and CJ Abrams were not part of the deal, but #4 prospect catcher Luis Campusano was rumored to be a part of the deal so it is very disappointing to not see him be a part of the final deal.

It seems like the Cubs are prioritizing quantity over quality in this one, which is only great if it pays off. They are sacrificing their chance to get a much more proven prospect to take a chance on hitting a home run on a lower level guy This also all but confirms the Cubs will likely be going into another long rebuilding stretch as all of these prospects they acquired are years off the big league level and will require a lot of development.

Cubs sign Jonathan Holder

The Cubs have announced they have signed RHP Jonathan Holder to a non-guaranteed contract that will pay him $750,000 if he makes the big league roster according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. . Holder, 27, has struggled the past two seasons, but has had success in the past.

Holder was non-tendered by the Yankees after posting a 4.98 ERA in 18 appearances while striking out just 14 batters in 21.2 innings pitched compared to 11 walks. He just plain and simply didn't fool anyone as batters hit .281/.356/.449 against him. 

It's worth noting that his numbers are inflated thanks to a dreadful final three appearances of the season. In his first 16 appearances he posted a 2.08 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 17.1 innings pitched compared to eight walks, but in his final three appearances he allowed eight runs in four and a third innings striking out none and walking three while giving up a pair of home runs.

Hitters just plain and simple made more contact against him and stopped chasing pitches out of the zone. Even before his end of season collapse his strikeout numbers were down and walks were up. His zone contact rate jumped from 80 percent to 85.4 percent and his chase percentage dropped from 31.1 percent to 26.1 percent. His velocity was basically the same and he even saw a sharp increase in his groundball rate, so what gives?

Holder struggled in 2019 as well with a 6.31 ERA in 34 appearances and 41.1 innings pitched, but he also posted by far the best strikeout numbers of his career along with keeping his walk numbers in line with his career norms. His struggles can be partly explained by a huge spike in his home run rate and a horrifically unlucky 53.6 left on base percentage.

He does have a history of success in the past as he posted a 3.42 ERA in 97 appearances split between the 2017-18 season for the Yankees with his best trait being his control as he walked just 27 batters in 105.1 innings pitched. 

Overall its a great no-risk move for the Cubs, they're getting a young, first-year arbitration eligible reliever that has had success in the past on a very cheap contract. Now the Cubs will get a chance to look under the hood and see if they can reunlock the potential he's shown in the past.

Where does Jackie Bradley Jr. fit in the Cubs plans?

 A report from Jon Morosi of Fox Sports connected the Chicago Cubs to free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. It feels like the first time in a while the Cubs have been connected to a upper tier free agent, but how much of a fit is he for the Cubs right now?

Bradley, 30, is coming off his best offensive season since 2016 posting a .814 OPS in 55 games and 217 plate appearances he also hit 7 home runs and overall that translated to a 119 wRC+. Bradleys success comes from a notable improvement in his contact rate that saw him make contact in the zone 77.6 of the time compared to 73.8 percent of the time in 2019. His line drive rate of 23.6 percent was still below league average, and he saw a sharp increase in his ground ball rate to the highest of his career. His offensive success seems to be fueled by a career high .343 BABIP that is bound to come down in 2021.

His average exit velocity is on a three year downward trend and he is coming off a three year stretch of a .726, .717,. and .738 OPS. The improvements in his contact rate shouldn't be ignored, but it's not like he was barreling the ball consistently, his hard hit percentage was actually the lowest of his career and his .299 xwOBA suggested that a lot of his success was smoke and mirrors.

Despite the questions on offense, there is zero doubt on his defensive abilities as he is an absolutely elite center fielder with seven outs above average in the shortened season and he peaked at 15 during the 2017 season. He has a ton of range thanks to his speed, and would be am upgrade over Ian Happ, who would most likely move to left field if the Cubs do sign Bradley

He also turns 31 in April of 2021 and has seen a small but slightly noticeable drop in his sprint speed, which is bound to get even worse as he gets older. Considering he plays a position that requires a ton of range and athleticism it's hard to see the Cubs wanting to commit to him on more than a two or three year deal. A short team deal would make sense for the Cubs considering they are in a bit of a transitional period with several core players becoming free agents after both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

Overall it's hard to see the Cubs making a strong push to sign Bradley Jr., unless they can get him on a modestly cheap and short contract. The Cubs do have a need in the outfield, but it's also fair to question whether he can repeat his offensive success. The defense would most likely be as good as ever, but he is also at an age where you start to wonder how long that is going to last.

Cubs take Gray Fenter in Rule V draft

 Today was the Rule V draft which gives MLB organizations the opportunity to select an unprotected player from a different organization.

The Cubs drafted 24-year old RHP Gray Fenter from the Baltimore Orioles organization, and he is certainly an interesting pick. He has not thrown a pitch above A-ball despite being a seventh round pick in the 2015 draft.

He's pitched quite well at the A-ball level with a 2.90 ERA among 36 appearances (19 starts) and 121 innings. He has shown good stuff striking out 123 and allowing just four home runs, he did walk 56 batters, but he made up for it by allowing just 92 hits. 

If there had been a minor league season in 2020 he likely would've been able to get up to the Double-A level, but no one really knows what sort of progress he has made since the 2019 season. It's a good "why not?" move for the Cubs as they get to take a flier on a young arm who hasn't really gotten a chance to prove himself at the upper levels

In a scouting report for Birdwatcher, Nick Stevens described him as: "That curveball is something else. His big 12-6 curve that works well with a low-90s fastball coupled to produce an effective outing to kick off his 2019 campaign. He needed 63 pitches to get through his first outing, throwing 35 strikes. Of those 35 strikes, 12 were swings and misses (34%). Left-handed hitters went just 2-12 against the right-handed Fenter,"

Cubs lose Eugene Emeralds

 After six seasons with the Chicago Cubs organization the Eugene Emeralds are longer affiliated with the Chicago Cubs and will become an affiliate of the San Francisco Giants organization according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.

The Emeralds had been affiliated with the Cubs since the 2015 season and had won the Northwest League title twice in both 2016 and 2018. 

The full statement from the Emeralds:

"The Eugene Emeralds would like to give our sincere gratitude to the Chicago Cubs organization for being an outstanding partner for the past 6 years. The immediate impact the Cubs had on this organization is undeniable. In 2016, in only our second season of affiliation with Chicago, the Emeralds ended a 41-year Northwest League Championship drought posting a final record of 54-22. The success continued in 2017 with another trip to the championship round and again in 2018 where the Emeralds won the Northwest League title. During those past 6 seasons, our fans have witnessed future and current Major League Baseball stars like Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Adbert Alzolay, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Adbert Alzolay and Chase Strumpf start their careers right here in Eugene. We can’t imagine there being a better era to have partnered with the Cubs as they not only ended our championship drought but also experienced their historic World Series Championship in 2016.

From past baseball legends like Bob Boone, Greg Lizinski, Tom Gordon, Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt to the hundreds of recent Emerald alumi, Eugene, Oregon has been a proving ground for baseball. To say we are excited for the next chapter of Ems Baseball is putting it mildly. We are absolutely thrilled to have baseball back in 2021 and cannot wait to showcase our award-winning gameday experience for our fans at PK Park next year."

In other Cubs affiliate news they have extended an invitation to the Iowa Cubs, Tennessee Smokies, Myrtle Beach Pelicans, and South Bend Cubs to remain with the organization, all of these offers are expected to be accepted. Notably, the Pelicans and Cubs will switch levels with the Pelicans becoming a Low-A team and the Cubs becoming a High-A team.

Cubs hire Willie Harris as third base coach

 With Will Venable departing for the Boston Red Sox the Cubs had a vacancy for their third base coach position, and according to Buster Olney of ESPN they are hiring former MLB utilityman Willie Harris to fill that role.

Harris, 42, spent 12 seasons split between seven teams hitting .238/.327/.346 in 2816 career plate appearances. He was quite useful in the fact that he was a very versatile defensively getting significant playing time in both the infield and outfield. He was respectable on the basepaths as well going 107-147 on steal attempts (a 73 percent success rate).

After his playing career he started his minor league coaching career for the Chicago White Sox organization in 2017 as the manager of the Winston-Salem Dash. After the season concluded he moved to the San Francisco Giants organization and spent two years as the manager for the Double-A Richmond Flying Squirrels. 

After 2019 he moved to the Cincinnati Reds as their new base running and outfield coordinator, and now will take over a position that has been a bit of a revolving door being the third different coach since the conclusion of the 2017 season when Gary Jones departed.

Report: Len Kasper leaving Cubs

 This will come as a shock to many, but Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that the long time TV voice of the Cubs Len Kasper will depart the Cubs organization to become the new radio play-by-play announcer for the Chicago White Sox.

Kasper joined the Cubs from the Florida Marlins organization after the 2004 season as the successor to Chip Caray and he has been in that role ever since. He saw the peak of the Ramirez-Soriano-Lee era where they won back-to-back division crowns, he saw the Theo Epstein era play out from start to finish, and was the TV voice of the 2016 team that won the World Series.

Losing Kasper is a momental blow to the organization, he is by far one of the best play-by-play broadcasters in baseball and has basically become synonymous with the Cubs organization. His use of analytics was great for the hardcore fans and helped increase the understanding of more casual fans.

Here are some of his highlights throughout the years:

Aramis Ramirez walk-off

Fukudome Opening Day Home Run

Carlos Zambrano completes his no-hitter

Kris Bryant walks off the Rockies

Three non-tendered players the Cubs should pursue

 Yesterday was the deadline to tender a contract to arbitration eligible players which means we saw 56 new players become free agents. Among those is several players that could be of value to the Cubs in 2021.

1. Archie Bradley, RHP

The veteran reliever was non-tendered despite posting a 2.95 ERA (3.67 xFIP) in 16 appearances and 18.1 innings pitched, he did make $4 million in 2020 and was due for a raise so it's possible the Reds just felt like he wouldn't have been worth the salary. It's worth nothing he posted his lowest strikeout rate since 2016 striking out 24.7 percent of hitters, but he also posted the best walk rate of his career walking just 4.1 percent of hitters. One concern is that he allowed an obscenely high line drive rate in 2020, with 35.3 percent of batted balls being considered line drives, and combined with a sharp drop in his groundball rate  could suggest bad results in the future if the trend continues.

He did see a drop in his velocity as his fastball went from averaging 95.5 MPH in 2019 to 94.2 in 2020, but despite that is was actually a more effective with hitters slugging .325 with a .275 wOBA average compared to .459 and .349 respectively. The concern would lie in his curveball which went from 82.1 MPH to 80 MPH on the dot and saw some concerning results. The swing-and-miss rate in the pitch was almost halved which means hitters were making contact which the pitch at a much higher rate, it was still an effective pitch as hitters posted a .238 wOBA average, but that is something to pay attention to.

Just 28 he is likely to command a lot of interest in the free agent market, he has been one of the more effective relievers over the past few years with a 2.95 ERA in 152 ERA+ in 221 games since the start of the 2017 season. I'm not sure if the Cubs are going to be willing to pay the salary he will likely command, but he would go a long way towards providing some stability towards the back of the pen.

2. Eddie Rosario, OF

The non-tender of Kyle Schwarber created a hole in the Cubs outfield, and it's one that could potentially be filled by the Twins cast-off. The 29-year old outfielder hit .257/.316/.476 in 231 plate appearances for the Twins. He didn't show much in the hit tool or plate discipline department, but he did show very good power that would somewhat make up for the absence of Schwarber.

Rosario, however, is a butcher in the field so he would likely be reduced to a designated hitter if that rule sticks in the National League in 2021 (which seems unlikely). In 2019 he was worth -18 outs above average in left field, which could be an anomaly considering he posted -2 in 2018 and was a positive +2 in 2017, in the small sample size of 2020 he was worth -1, so obviously he isn't going to win any Gold Gloves, but it's also possible that 2019 was just a fluke and he realistically isn't that bad.

He's would not fully be able to replace the production of Schwarber, especially since his career walk rate is a Javy Baez-esque 4.7 percent, but his ability to drive the ball makes him potentially a very solid addition to a Cubs lineup that ranked just 9th in home runs and just lost one of their best sluggers.

3. Carlos Rodon, LHP

The former 3rd overall pick in 2014 has struggled to establish himself for the White Sox, and it's possible a change of scenery or even a move to the bullpen could work wonders for the southpaw.

Rodon has struggled with arm injuries having had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and he missed over a month in 2020 with a shoulder issue. When he was on the mound he wasn't very effective, in 11 appearances (9 starts) combined from 2019-20 he posted an uninspiring 5.74 ERA allowing 27 earned runs in 42.1 innings pitched, he did show good strikeout numbers with 52 punchouts and his 3.85 FIP suggests that maybe he was a little unfortunate in his results.

His fastball velocity has dipped significantly from it's peak of 94.2 MPH in 2016 to just 92.8 MPH in 2020, it's possible that it's just because he's working his way back from injury, or whether the injuries have impacted his velocity that much. He's just a three pitcher pitcher with a four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup combo, he has thrown a sinker in the past but threw in just three times in 2019 and not once in 2020. If the velocity drop is permanent he could be effective in the bullpen as he might be able to get a slight bump in velocity since he won't be expected to throw 90+ pitches an appearance.

He has had past success as a big league starter, and we all know the Cubs need pitching depth. He isn't likely to be very expensive due to his struggled the past two seasons combined with questions about his health and whether his arm will be able to stand the rigors of a full big league season

Cubs non-tender Kyle Schwarber among others

 Although it had been speculated, it became a reality tonight as the Cubs announced  their tender decisions, and included in the non-tenders is veteran outfielder Kyle Schwarber.

Schwarber struggled in 2020 hitting .188/.308/.393 in 224 plate appearances playing in 59 of the Cubs 60 games while smacking 11 home runs. While it wasn't an ideal stat line, Schwarber was coming off of a big 2019 season that saw him post a 120 wRC+ and smack a career-high 38 home runs. The former first round pick has smashed 121 home runs over 2108 plate appearances in the big leagues.

Although he has certainly had his issues at the big league level Schwarber is a very capable big league bat and has developed into a serviceable defender in left field so it's frustrating to see him non-tendered when he was projected to earn somewhere between $7-$9 million in his final year of arbitration and paints an even dimmer look at their financial situation.

A reunion is certainly possible, but Schwarber is likely to attract a lot of attention due to his skillset and him being just 27-years old. It's hard to tell how much to read into his 2020 struggles due to the uniqueness of the season, but it's worth noting that his average exit velocity was the second highest of his career and ranked in the top five percent of all of baseball. 

His struggles seemed to be tied into a sharp increase in his ground ball rate which spiked from 38.8 percent to 51.2 percent in 2020. If Schwarber wants to succeed he's got to be able to hit the ball in the air at a much higher clip as his power is his most valuable asset.

Schwarber also leaves a legacy of being one of the best hitters in Cubs postseason history. In 24 games and 79 plate appearances he hit .288/.405/.576 with six home runs which is tied with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo for first all time. He had some notable moments including his two-run shot in the Wild Card game and his memorable scoreboard home run against the Cardinals in 2015. But nothing will be as impressive as what he did in 2016.

On April 7th in an early season matchup against the Diamondbacks Schwarber collided with Dexter Fowler tearing his ACL and LCL and was declared out for the remainder of the season. But after a long rehab process he was cleared to take at-bats for the Cubs Arizona Fall League team. So on October 22nd Schwarber was taking at bats in preparation for a potential World Series comeback as the Cubs clinched their first pennant in 71 years in Chicago.

When the World Series roster was named Schwarber was listed and one of the more unbelievable sports injury comebacks was complete. Schwarber was the designated hitter for the road games that series appearing in five games and going an impressive 7-17 driving in two runs and scoring two. His single to open up the tenth inning of Game Seven set up the go ahead run for the Cubs as they ended a 108-year title drought.

Elsewhere former 2012 first round pick Albert Almora Jr. was also non-tendered. He was the first draft pick of the Theo Epstein era and at one point ranked as the #18 prospect by Baseball Prospectus, but he has never been able to fully put it together at the big league level. In 489 games he has slashed .271/.308/.398 while not being the most impressive center fields with below average speed for a center fielder. His numbers especially cratered the past two seasons where he has hit .230/.270/.366 in 397 plate appearances. He just didn't have the plate discipline to last at the big league level, and when he did hit he wasn't hitting the ball hard enough to do a lot of damage. He will also have a special place in Cubs fans hearts as he pinch-ran for Schwarber in Game Seven and scored the go-ahead run after tagging from first on a fly ball out. He certainly has potential to contribute as a reserve big league outfielder, but it has become increasingly clear it wasn't going to happen with the Cubs.

Mid-season acquisition Jose Martinez was also non-tendered. The Cubs had hoped he would be a potential lefty masher off the bench, but instead he went 0-21 with the Cubs and that combined with his very poor defense made his non-tender a non-surprise.

It was a slight surprise to see Cubs MVP-vote getter Ryan Tepera non-tendered as he was fairly solid for the Cubs posting a 3.92 ERA in 21 appearances for the club. He struck out an impressive 31 in 20.2 innings pitched and while he walked 12 he was able to cancel that out by being hard to square up allowing just 17 hits and two home runs. He seemed to be one of the more reliable members of the Cubs bullpen at times so it's possible a reunion is certainly in the cards.

The Cubs also announced they avoided arbitration with Colin Rea, Dan Winkler, and Kyle Ryan while they tendered a contract to Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Victor Caratini, and Ian Happ.

Cubs claim Robert Stock off waivers

 The Cubs made a waiver claim today acquiring 31-year old RHP Robert Stock off waivers from the Boston Red Sox according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN.

Stock made 10 appearances for the Red Sox in the abbreviated season allowing seven earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched. He struggled at preventing baserunners allowing 16 hits while walking 10. Stock seemed to be a victim of some bad luck as hitters had a .421 BABIP against him last year which combined with a 52.6 groundball rate could suggest he is due for some positive regression.

One big positive is that he is a hard thrower with a fastball that averaged 96.8 MPH and ranked in the 94th percentile of all big league pitchers. He works off the fastball with a slider that he threw 22.9 percent of the time and a changeup that he threw 82.2 percent of the time. He seemed to have a problem confusing hitters as they chased his pitches just 18 percent of the time and the both swung and made contact at pitches in the zone above the big league average, which combined with his below average walk rate is a recipe for disaster.

Stock has made 52 appearances as part of three big league seasons posting a 4.24 ERA in 63.2 innings pitched while striking out 67 and walking 31.The former 2009 2nd round pick by the Cardinals bounced around several organizations before finally making the big leagues with the Padres in 2018, he bounced on waivers to the Phillies and then finally landed with the Red Sox in July of this year.

It's unlikely the Cubs will be major players in free agency so moves like this are going to be common. The Cubs have had some success with reclamation projects over the year and Stock is a solid depth addition to the bullpen and he might be able to find more success with a better defense behind him.