What does Jake Arrieta have left in the tank?

 Last night it was reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network that the Cubs and former Cy Young Winner Jake Arrieta were close to a reunion. According to Patrick Mooney of the Athletic the deal is for one year and will pay the righty $6 million. Arrieta, 34, is coming off a injury shortened 2020 season.

The Cubs first acquired Arrieta from the Orioles in early July 2013 in the infamous Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger for Pedro Strop and Arrieta deal. He almost immediately became a key part of the Cubs rotation and was a key starting pitcher for the 2016 Cubs team that ended a 108-year drought. 

In a three season stretch from 2014-16 Arrieta was one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. He started 89 games posting a 2.42 ERA throughout 583 innings he struck out 593 while walking 165. He threw two no-hitters and won a Cy Young Award in that span while starting seven postseason games.

His second half of 2015 may be one of the most dominant pitching performances of all time, in 100.1 innings pitched after the All-Star break he allowed only nine earned runs while striking out 103 and walking only 20. He held opposing hitters to a .150/.203/.205 line and it seemed like every time he took the bump he had a legitimate chance to throw a no-hitter (which he did do against the Dodgers).

Arrieta departed the Cubs after a slightly down, but still fairly good 2017 and signed a three year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. He saw his numbers decline significantly for the Phillies as he started just 64 games while battling various hamstring and elbow issues.

In those 64 starts he posted a 4.36 ERA in 352.2 innings while striking out just 280 while walking 124. That includes a very rough 2020 that saw him post a 5.08 ERA in 44.1 innings pitched while striking out only 32 batters and walking 16. He no longer has the overpowering stuff that allowed him to dominate with the Cubs and it shows.

The big culprit in Arrietas decline has been the huge loss of velocity. His sinker averaged just 92 MPH which is a far cry from the 95.3 MPH during his Cy Young season. Hitters were not fooled by the pitch as they hit .402 with 11 extra base hits against it while swinging and missing just 7.9 percent of the time.

He just doesn't fool batters as much as he used to, his 16.8 strikeout percentage was his worst since he was a 24-year old rookie and he ranked in the lower half among pitchers for both whiff percentage and limiting hard contact. 

The trends have not been good and Cubs fans should definitely not expect Arrieta to return back to his dominant form, but if he can reinvent himself to become more of a contact management guy like Kyle Hendricks he can still be a decent starter. The velocity decline is a problem, but Cubs pitchers have shown in recent years that you don't need velocity to be a good starting pitcher.

Cubs bring back Andrew Chafin

 According to Zach Buchanan of The Athletic the Cubs are bringing back 30-year old LHP Andrew Chafin on a big league contract that will pay him $2.25 million in 2021 and include a $5.25 million mutual option according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

The Cubs acquired Chafin at the trade deadline for a PTBNL that eventually turned into being infielder Ronny Simon. Chafin only made four appearances with the Cubs as he was recovering from a finger sprain when they acquired him. He pitched fairly well allowing just one run in three innings while striking out three and walking one. Of course the only run he allowed was a walk off home run, but he does have a history of success in the big leagues especially against lefties. In his career lefties have posted a .230/.306/.311 line in 546 career plate appearances.

Overall his body of work for 2020 was a mixed bag, he was solid in his limited Cubs sample size, but he struggled for the Diamondbacks with the tune of a 8.10 ERA in a very small sample size of 6.2 innings pitched. One thing to pay attention to for next season is his strikeout rate as he posted the best strikeout rate of his career striking out 13 of the 45 hitters he faced.

Chafin throws fairly hard for a leftty with a four seam fastball that averages 93.6 MPH, but it wasn't a really effective pitch for him in 2020 as batters hit .375 with a 10.7 whiff percentage with the pitch. His most effective pitch has been a slider which batters have batted under .200 against his entire career and induces a whiff nearly half the time.

The money is a big larger than what you would expect, but it seems like the baseball budget has suddenly opened after what seems like a couples years of squeezing. Still though, it's nice to see the Cubs making moves that seems like they are going to attempt to win a division that they feel is winnable and before they lose some key players.

Chafin isn't a world-beater and isn't going to win any awards, but he has a track record of being an above average reliever and helps a Cubs bullpen that will definitely need a ton of depth going into the season.