In the first half of 2018 Albert Almora could not be stopped. He hit a very impressive .319/.357/.409 and at one point was leading the league in batting. The second half, however, was a massive fall off as he hit just .232/.267/.280, a massive fall off and one that raises some questions going into 2019.
One of Almoras bright spots offensively was his ability to hit lefties, he hit a very impressive .295/.340/.402, and while the power was bit low, that was something that afflicted the Cubs as a whole so it'll be interesting to see if that bounces back in 2019.
Almoras power was the weakest portion of his game in 2018, his xSLG of .315 was one of the worst in all of baseball and his 5 barrels in 369 plate appearances was equally horrendous. His hard contact rate of 27.4 percent ranked in the bottom 10 percent in all of baseball. That's all despite his launch angle and BABIP remaining at basically the same level as 2017.
Where Almora shined in 2018 was his defense. Early in the season he was considered a prime candidate for a Gold Glove award thanks to some spectacular catches According to Baseball Savant Almora's defense was incredibly impressive as he ranked 7th in all of baseball with 12 outs above average, and his catch rate of 93 percent was 4th in all of baseball.
Almora is probably going to receive the majority of plate appearances for the Cubs in center field. Though the Cubs might favor Ian Happ in situations against a tough righty. If he can return to his first half numbers he would be a huge addition to the Cubs lineup, but if he struggles he could find his playing time reduced or even find himself back in AAA.
2019 is going to be a make or break year for Almora, the Cubs already have a glut at outfield (and that's not including the potential addition of Bryce Harper) so if he has a down season going into his first arbitration season the Cubs might look to trade him or cut bait with him.
Thursday, December 6, 2018
Sunday, December 2, 2018
Cubs should take a look at Zach Duke
One of the more notable losses the Cubs will face this offseason is the loss of lefty reliever Justin Wilson. Although his control was awful at time, he managed to post a 3.46 ERA in 54.2 innings for the Cubs, including holding lefties to a .241/.319/.345 slash.
Like every season their is a glut of free agent relievers on the market, and one of those relievers is Zach Duke. On the outset his numbers aren't that impressive. He posted a 4.15 ERA in 52 innings split between the Twins and Mariners. But a deeper look at the numbers suggest he pitched much better than his numbers indicated.
His xFIP of 3.74 and BABIP against of .394 suggest that he may have been a victim of both bad luck and poor defense behind him. He also had some pretty severe splits as righties slashed .311/.403/.370 against him compared to just .220/.283/.319 against lefties. His K-BB% of 12.5% was fairly solid and he posted the highest ground ball percentage of his career at 59.4 percent.
Duke turns 36 in April so age is not on his side, but he has generally been fairly reliable since he made the full conversion to a reliever in 2012. He wouldn't be the most glamorous addition to the Cubs team, but he's a guy I think the Cubs should definitely be looking at as a cheaper option to add to their bullpen.
Like every season their is a glut of free agent relievers on the market, and one of those relievers is Zach Duke. On the outset his numbers aren't that impressive. He posted a 4.15 ERA in 52 innings split between the Twins and Mariners. But a deeper look at the numbers suggest he pitched much better than his numbers indicated.
His xFIP of 3.74 and BABIP against of .394 suggest that he may have been a victim of both bad luck and poor defense behind him. He also had some pretty severe splits as righties slashed .311/.403/.370 against him compared to just .220/.283/.319 against lefties. His K-BB% of 12.5% was fairly solid and he posted the highest ground ball percentage of his career at 59.4 percent.
Duke turns 36 in April so age is not on his side, but he has generally been fairly reliable since he made the full conversion to a reliever in 2012. He wouldn't be the most glamorous addition to the Cubs team, but he's a guy I think the Cubs should definitely be looking at as a cheaper option to add to their bullpen.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
Cubs trade Tommy La Stella to the Angels
The Cubs have traded 29-year old pinch hitting star Tommy "3 AM" La Stella to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for cash or a player to be named later.
La Stellas numbers look just mediocre on the outset, he hit .266/.340/.331 in 192 plate appearances, but his primary value came off the bench where he led the league with 24 pinch hits, which is incredibly valuable especially in late game situations. He had very good bat control, walking in 8.9 percent of his plate appearances while striking out in just 14.1 percent, a very impressive skill in this day and age.
The move comes at the heels of the Ronald Torreyes trade, and ultimately fell victim to a roster crunch. Unlike Torreyes, he is very limited defensively as he primarily played only second and third with the Cubs and graded below average at both of those positions. La Stella was projected to earn $300k more than Torreyes in arbitration, so the move will save the team a bit of money.
La Stella, was a fan (and Jesse Roger) favorite. He will conclude his Cub career with a very solid .273/.356/.397 line. He was an important member of the 2016 team that won the World Series, and although he had his send down controversy he will be remembered fondly for his knack for hitting off the bench.
La Stellas numbers look just mediocre on the outset, he hit .266/.340/.331 in 192 plate appearances, but his primary value came off the bench where he led the league with 24 pinch hits, which is incredibly valuable especially in late game situations. He had very good bat control, walking in 8.9 percent of his plate appearances while striking out in just 14.1 percent, a very impressive skill in this day and age.
The move comes at the heels of the Ronald Torreyes trade, and ultimately fell victim to a roster crunch. Unlike Torreyes, he is very limited defensively as he primarily played only second and third with the Cubs and graded below average at both of those positions. La Stella was projected to earn $300k more than Torreyes in arbitration, so the move will save the team a bit of money.
La Stella, was a fan (and Jesse Roger) favorite. He will conclude his Cub career with a very solid .273/.356/.397 line. He was an important member of the 2016 team that won the World Series, and although he had his send down controversy he will be remembered fondly for his knack for hitting off the bench.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Cubs acquire Ronald Torreyes from Yankees
The Chicago Cubs made a small, but interesting move today acquiring recently DFA'd infield Ronald Torreyes from the Yankees in exchange for a player to be named later.
Torreyes, just 26, hit only .280/.294/.370 in 102 plate appearances for the 100-win Yankees. The move made sense on the Yankees part as they had already had a glut of infielders and are rumored to be interested in star infielder Manny Machado.
The move is interesting from the Cubs perspective as they already have players like Javier Baez, David Bote, Addison Russell, and Tommy La Stella as options on the left side of the infield. However, with Russell potentially being a non-tenure candidate due to both his domestic violence suspension and poor offensive performance the move makes sense from a depth perspective as he can play short if Baez, for example, gets injured.
Torreyes value comes in his defensive versatility as he has garnered a solid amount of innings at second, third, and short throughout his major league career. His best play has come at third where he has a 1.8 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). He could easily slot in for the Cubs at any of those three positions as a backup/injury replacement.
His offense is a bit of a concern as he is a high contact/no walk or power type of player, but he hasn't had the results that shows he can stick in the major leagues. His career OPS+ of 82 is significantly below average, and he has just 40 extra base hits in 615 career plate appearances. He seems to be more of a guy that is willing to put the ball in play and hope the ball will find a whole. He doesn't particularly hit the ball very had with an average exit velocity of 81.7 MPH in 2018, and has a high ground ball rate at 53.4%.
It's a smart move for the Cubs as they try to shore up their infield with some additional depth as they brace for either an Addison Russell non-tender or a 40-game suspension to start the 2019 campaign. Torreyes is still young, with team control and an option, and the positional versatility that the Cubs seem to love.
Torreyes, just 26, hit only .280/.294/.370 in 102 plate appearances for the 100-win Yankees. The move made sense on the Yankees part as they had already had a glut of infielders and are rumored to be interested in star infielder Manny Machado.
The move is interesting from the Cubs perspective as they already have players like Javier Baez, David Bote, Addison Russell, and Tommy La Stella as options on the left side of the infield. However, with Russell potentially being a non-tenure candidate due to both his domestic violence suspension and poor offensive performance the move makes sense from a depth perspective as he can play short if Baez, for example, gets injured.
Torreyes value comes in his defensive versatility as he has garnered a solid amount of innings at second, third, and short throughout his major league career. His best play has come at third where he has a 1.8 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). He could easily slot in for the Cubs at any of those three positions as a backup/injury replacement.
His offense is a bit of a concern as he is a high contact/no walk or power type of player, but he hasn't had the results that shows he can stick in the major leagues. His career OPS+ of 82 is significantly below average, and he has just 40 extra base hits in 615 career plate appearances. He seems to be more of a guy that is willing to put the ball in play and hope the ball will find a whole. He doesn't particularly hit the ball very had with an average exit velocity of 81.7 MPH in 2018, and has a high ground ball rate at 53.4%.
It's a smart move for the Cubs as they try to shore up their infield with some additional depth as they brace for either an Addison Russell non-tender or a 40-game suspension to start the 2019 campaign. Torreyes is still young, with team control and an option, and the positional versatility that the Cubs seem to love.
Monday, October 15, 2018
Cubs to hire Anthony Iapoce as hitting coach
According to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram the Chicago Cubs are hiring Texas Rangers' hitting coach Anthony Iapoce away from the team to take the same role with the Cubs.
Iapoce, 45, has been the hitting coach for the Rangers for three years overseeing an offense that ranked in the top half in the American League each year he was there, though they did fall off a bit in 2018.
In 2018 the Rangers ranked seventh in the American League in runs scored, eighth in home runs, fourth in walks, and 12th in total bases. Some concerning stats are that the Rangers were dead last in hits and second to last in batting average and strikeouts, but those really don't matter if they were still producing runs.
The move brings back a familiar face to the Cubs as Iapoce spent three years with the organization as special assistant to the GM overseeing the Cubs hitting program. During that tenure he oversaw current Cubs mainstays like Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras among others.
Overall it seems to be a refreshing change from Chili Davis's contact at all costs approach, as Iapoce will likely bring the focus back to hitting the crap out of the ball and giving launch angles the attention it deserves.
There are a lot of question marks surrounding the offense heading into 2019, but a good hitting coach will be able to recognize potential problems and fix them before they cripple a players ability.
Iapoce, 45, has been the hitting coach for the Rangers for three years overseeing an offense that ranked in the top half in the American League each year he was there, though they did fall off a bit in 2018.
In 2018 the Rangers ranked seventh in the American League in runs scored, eighth in home runs, fourth in walks, and 12th in total bases. Some concerning stats are that the Rangers were dead last in hits and second to last in batting average and strikeouts, but those really don't matter if they were still producing runs.
The move brings back a familiar face to the Cubs as Iapoce spent three years with the organization as special assistant to the GM overseeing the Cubs hitting program. During that tenure he oversaw current Cubs mainstays like Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras among others.
Overall it seems to be a refreshing change from Chili Davis's contact at all costs approach, as Iapoce will likely bring the focus back to hitting the crap out of the ball and giving launch angles the attention it deserves.
There are a lot of question marks surrounding the offense heading into 2019, but a good hitting coach will be able to recognize potential problems and fix them before they cripple a players ability.
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Cubs fire Chili Davis
After a disappointing season that saw the Cubs finish second in their division and lose the one game Wild Card playoff to the Colorado Rockies the Cubs have made their first change.
According to multiple reports on Twitter the Chicago Cubs have fired hitting coach Chili Davis after a season that was marred with offensive inconsistency.
Last week, I went into detail on the Cubs offensive struggles including their significant drop off in the second half, and especially in the final month of the season. Ultimately Davis was a gamble that didn't pay off, he was a highly respected coach that just couldn't get it done with this group of hitters.
It will be interesting to see what direction the Cubs move towards, their previous hitting coach John Mallee focused more on power at the expense of a higher strikeout rate, but Davis focused on contact with a lower strikeout rate at the expense of their power. It's easier said than done, but the Cubs should try to focus on a coach that will let the players be themselves and only make adjustments when it is hindering them from living up to their full potential.
For the rest of the coaching staff, Carrie Muskat tweeted that an announcement will come at a later date, but I wouldn't expect too many changes there.
According to multiple reports on Twitter the Chicago Cubs have fired hitting coach Chili Davis after a season that was marred with offensive inconsistency.
Last week, I went into detail on the Cubs offensive struggles including their significant drop off in the second half, and especially in the final month of the season. Ultimately Davis was a gamble that didn't pay off, he was a highly respected coach that just couldn't get it done with this group of hitters.
It will be interesting to see what direction the Cubs move towards, their previous hitting coach John Mallee focused more on power at the expense of a higher strikeout rate, but Davis focused on contact with a lower strikeout rate at the expense of their power. It's easier said than done, but the Cubs should try to focus on a coach that will let the players be themselves and only make adjustments when it is hindering them from living up to their full potential.
For the rest of the coaching staff, Carrie Muskat tweeted that an announcement will come at a later date, but I wouldn't expect too many changes there.
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
So what happened to the offense?
The 2018 Cubs season ended on a fitting note, three swinging strikeouts of Terrence Gore, Javier Baez, and Albert Almora Jr. It concluded a stretch of scoring 2 runs in 22 innings in the two biggest games of the season. It creates the biggest question mark for this off season. What happened to the offense, and what is the plan to fix it?
In the first half of the season it seemed like the Cubs offense was gonna keep doing their thing, they scored 476 runs in the first half which was good for first in the National League and fourth in all of baseball. They had the fifth highest walk rate and ninth lowest strikeout rate.Their only problem was a lack of power, but they were still getting on base and producing runs.
However, things fell apart in the second half for the Cubs, they scored just 285 runs in the second half, which ranked just 19th in all of baseball. Their walk rate dipped significantly along with a rise in their strikeout rate. Their power, which was already an issue in the first half, became even worse in the second half with just a .140 ISO which ranked 27th in all of baseball. Their overall wRC+ for the second half was 89, which means on average their offense was 11 percent worse than league average.
If you just go by Septembers numbers the Cubs got even worse, their walk rate dropped, their strikeout rate climbed, and their power somehow got even worse. Obviously it's easy to blame the 30 games in 30 days stretch, but when it comes to crunch time they just did not get the job done and now they will go home ending a stretch of three consecutive NLCS appearances.
A look at the Cubs plate discipline stats paint a grim picture, for the overall season the Cubs had the sixth highest outside swing percentage, 14th in zone swing percentage, 22nd in overall contact, and had the 10th most swinging strikes. Their numbers actually rank pretty similar to the 2017 team, but that's a problem when the Cubs changed their hitting philosophy for the 2018 season.
Of course it wasn't all bad for the Cubs. Javier Baez had a breakout season and is a legitimate MVP contender, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist both bounced back in a big way, and Anthony Rizzo came back from a terrible start to have another very good season.
The easy scapegoat for this is hitting coach Chili Davis, who was brought in after being fired by the Red Sox after a disappointing 2017 season. The Red Sox offense immediately improved in 2018 after adding JD Martinez, which is possible could be due to firing Davis, but it's also impossible to tell. It's possible that with velocity becoming an increasingly important factor in todays game, that Davis's prioritizing contact over power philosophy just doesn't work in todays game.
The Cubs brought Davis in to increase contact, but the problem is that it has come at the cost of the Cubs power and their ability to grind out at bats consistently throughout the game. The Cubs made Kyle Freeland throw just 82 pitches (60 strikes) in 6.2 innings, which seems to be the exact opposite mojo of the team that won the World Series in 2016.
The Cubs have some big decisions to make this off season and it should start with making a change at hitting coach and going after Nationals star OF Bryce Harper. It's clear that whatever the Cubs tried to do on offense this year did more harm than good, and signing a big time hitter like Harper could help jump start the offense and potentially lead to another ring for the North Side.
In the first half of the season it seemed like the Cubs offense was gonna keep doing their thing, they scored 476 runs in the first half which was good for first in the National League and fourth in all of baseball. They had the fifth highest walk rate and ninth lowest strikeout rate.Their only problem was a lack of power, but they were still getting on base and producing runs.
However, things fell apart in the second half for the Cubs, they scored just 285 runs in the second half, which ranked just 19th in all of baseball. Their walk rate dipped significantly along with a rise in their strikeout rate. Their power, which was already an issue in the first half, became even worse in the second half with just a .140 ISO which ranked 27th in all of baseball. Their overall wRC+ for the second half was 89, which means on average their offense was 11 percent worse than league average.
If you just go by Septembers numbers the Cubs got even worse, their walk rate dropped, their strikeout rate climbed, and their power somehow got even worse. Obviously it's easy to blame the 30 games in 30 days stretch, but when it comes to crunch time they just did not get the job done and now they will go home ending a stretch of three consecutive NLCS appearances.
A look at the Cubs plate discipline stats paint a grim picture, for the overall season the Cubs had the sixth highest outside swing percentage, 14th in zone swing percentage, 22nd in overall contact, and had the 10th most swinging strikes. Their numbers actually rank pretty similar to the 2017 team, but that's a problem when the Cubs changed their hitting philosophy for the 2018 season.
Of course it wasn't all bad for the Cubs. Javier Baez had a breakout season and is a legitimate MVP contender, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist both bounced back in a big way, and Anthony Rizzo came back from a terrible start to have another very good season.
The easy scapegoat for this is hitting coach Chili Davis, who was brought in after being fired by the Red Sox after a disappointing 2017 season. The Red Sox offense immediately improved in 2018 after adding JD Martinez, which is possible could be due to firing Davis, but it's also impossible to tell. It's possible that with velocity becoming an increasingly important factor in todays game, that Davis's prioritizing contact over power philosophy just doesn't work in todays game.
The Cubs brought Davis in to increase contact, but the problem is that it has come at the cost of the Cubs power and their ability to grind out at bats consistently throughout the game. The Cubs made Kyle Freeland throw just 82 pitches (60 strikes) in 6.2 innings, which seems to be the exact opposite mojo of the team that won the World Series in 2016.
The Cubs have some big decisions to make this off season and it should start with making a change at hitting coach and going after Nationals star OF Bryce Harper. It's clear that whatever the Cubs tried to do on offense this year did more harm than good, and signing a big time hitter like Harper could help jump start the offense and potentially lead to another ring for the North Side.
Friday, August 3, 2018
Cubs place Brian Duensing on DL, recall Randy Rosario
Well the other day when I said Randy Rosario would most likely be back for September call ups, it turns out he would actually be back two days later. The team placed lefty reliever Brian Duensing on the DL and recalled Rosario to fill his role.
Duensing, who is suffering from back tightness, has been horrendous this season with a 7.34 ERA in 34.1 innings with 5 home runs and 26 walks to 22 strikeouts. His problem this year has been his command as hitters have an overall .276/.393/.440 line, which would be a solid season for any hitter. Duensing's numbers are a far cry from his excellent 2017 where he posted a 2.74 ERA in 62.1 innings. The Cubs have to hope Duensing will be able to turn it around as he is signed through 2019 at 3.5 million.
As I said the other day about Rosario, his actual results this season have been great, but the peripherals behind them suggest he has benefited from a ton of luck. It will be interesting if he will be able to keep his numbers going while Duensing is on the shelf
Duensing, who is suffering from back tightness, has been horrendous this season with a 7.34 ERA in 34.1 innings with 5 home runs and 26 walks to 22 strikeouts. His problem this year has been his command as hitters have an overall .276/.393/.440 line, which would be a solid season for any hitter. Duensing's numbers are a far cry from his excellent 2017 where he posted a 2.74 ERA in 62.1 innings. The Cubs have to hope Duensing will be able to turn it around as he is signed through 2019 at 3.5 million.
As I said the other day about Rosario, his actual results this season have been great, but the peripherals behind them suggest he has benefited from a ton of luck. It will be interesting if he will be able to keep his numbers going while Duensing is on the shelf
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
Cubs option Randy Rosario, add Brandon Kintzler
In order to make room for recently acquired reliever Brandon Kintzler the Cubs have optioned left handed reliever Randy Rosario to triple-A Iowa.
Rosario, 25, has been dominant in his 32 innings with the club with a 1.97 ERA and a .156/.283/.378 line against lefties. However, Rosario has been benefiting from some pretty extreme luck with a 4.91 xFIP and a 93.6% left on base rate. He doesn't miss many bats, but also walks a lot of batters which is never a good combination. Rosario will most likely be back with the team for September call ups, if not sooner.
The Cubs bullpen has been the biggest bright spot of the pitching staff with a 3.21 ERA that ranks 4th in Major League Baseball behind the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Astros. Collectively they have walked the 3rd most batters in the MLB, but an excellent defense and an ability to limit opponents power has helped limit the damage.
Rosario, 25, has been dominant in his 32 innings with the club with a 1.97 ERA and a .156/.283/.378 line against lefties. However, Rosario has been benefiting from some pretty extreme luck with a 4.91 xFIP and a 93.6% left on base rate. He doesn't miss many bats, but also walks a lot of batters which is never a good combination. Rosario will most likely be back with the team for September call ups, if not sooner.
The Cubs bullpen has been the biggest bright spot of the pitching staff with a 3.21 ERA that ranks 4th in Major League Baseball behind the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Astros. Collectively they have walked the 3rd most batters in the MLB, but an excellent defense and an ability to limit opponents power has helped limit the damage.
Cubs minor league recap: 7/31/2018
Class-A Myrtle Beach 10-7 victory over Down East Wood Ducks
Notable performers:
DJ Wilson 2-4 with 2 runs
Andruw Monasterio 3-5 with a grand slam
Jared Young 1-2 with a home run and a walk
Wladmir Galindo 2-4 with 2 doubles
Manuel Rendon 2.2 IP 1 H 2 BB 2 SO
Class-A South Bend 5-6 loss against the Western Michigan Whitecaps
Notable performers:
Zach Davis 3-5 with a double
Miguel Amaya 2-4 with an RBI and a walk
Austin Filiere 3-4 with a walk and a run
Chris Donahue 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI
Erling Moreno 7.1 IP 8 H 6 R 3 ER 0 BB 5 SO
Low-A Eugene 3-6 loss to the Vancouver Canadiens
Notable performers:
Levi Jordan 2-4 with a run
Nelson Velazquez 2-4 with a home run
Jonathan Sierra 2-4
Sean Barry 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 SO
DSL Cubs2 4-5 loss to the DSL Phillies White
Notable performers:
Pedro Martinez 1-2 with an RBI and a run
Miguel Fabrizio 1-4 with a double and RBI
Edward Vasquez 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 3 BB 2 SO
DSL Cubs1 5-0 victory over the DSL Indians/Brewers
Notable performers:
Rochest Cruz 2-3 with a walk and 4 steals
Jonathan Rodriguez 1-4 with a three-run home run
Josue Fernandez 1-2 with a triple and a walk
Andy Hernandez 5 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 5 SO
AZL Cubs 8-3 victory over the AZL Mariners
Notable performers:
Christopher Morel 3-5 with 2 doubles and an RBI
Jonathan Soto 3-5 with a home run
Yovanny Cuevas 1-3 with 2 walks
Rafael Mejia 4-4 with a double and a walk
Dalton Hurd 2-4 with 2 RBI
Peyton Remy 4.2 IP 5 H 2 ER 2 BB 4 SO
Notable performers:
DJ Wilson 2-4 with 2 runs
Andruw Monasterio 3-5 with a grand slam
Jared Young 1-2 with a home run and a walk
Wladmir Galindo 2-4 with 2 doubles
Manuel Rendon 2.2 IP 1 H 2 BB 2 SO
Class-A South Bend 5-6 loss against the Western Michigan Whitecaps
Notable performers:
Zach Davis 3-5 with a double
Miguel Amaya 2-4 with an RBI and a walk
Austin Filiere 3-4 with a walk and a run
Chris Donahue 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI
Erling Moreno 7.1 IP 8 H 6 R 3 ER 0 BB 5 SO
Low-A Eugene 3-6 loss to the Vancouver Canadiens
Notable performers:
Levi Jordan 2-4 with a run
Nelson Velazquez 2-4 with a home run
Jonathan Sierra 2-4
Sean Barry 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 2 SO
DSL Cubs2 4-5 loss to the DSL Phillies White
Notable performers:
Pedro Martinez 1-2 with an RBI and a run
Miguel Fabrizio 1-4 with a double and RBI
Edward Vasquez 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 3 BB 2 SO
DSL Cubs1 5-0 victory over the DSL Indians/Brewers
Notable performers:
Rochest Cruz 2-3 with a walk and 4 steals
Jonathan Rodriguez 1-4 with a three-run home run
Josue Fernandez 1-2 with a triple and a walk
Andy Hernandez 5 IP 3 H 0 ER 1 BB 5 SO
AZL Cubs 8-3 victory over the AZL Mariners
Notable performers:
Christopher Morel 3-5 with 2 doubles and an RBI
Jonathan Soto 3-5 with a home run
Yovanny Cuevas 1-3 with 2 walks
Rafael Mejia 4-4 with a double and a walk
Dalton Hurd 2-4 with 2 RBI
Peyton Remy 4.2 IP 5 H 2 ER 2 BB 4 SO
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Cubs acquire Brandon Kintzler from Nationals
With the clock ticking towards the trade deadline the Cubs have made another addition to their pitching staff as they have traded for right-handed reliever Brandon Kintzler according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (on Twitter). In return, the Cubs send 23-year old RHP Jhon Romero to the Nationals according to Cubs beat writer Carrie Muskat (on Twitter).
Kintzler, 33, has had a solid season for the Nationals with a 3.59 ERA 42.2 innings pitched. Primarily a ground ball pitcher, Kintzler relies on a sinker to get outs throwing it 75% of the time which could allow him to thrive with the Cubs defense behind him.
Romero was having a solid season for the Myrtle Beach Pelicans with a 3.27 ERA and a 57-17 K-BB ratio. It's a reasonable return for the Nationals as relievers like Romero are ultimately a dime a dozen especially in this level of the minor leagues.
Kintzler has suffered from much harder contact against him as his line drive rate (28.1%) is much higher than his career norm (23.7%), and is partially to blame for a sharp 8 percent decrease in his ground ball rate. A cause for this may be both his sinker and slider dropping a tick from his excellent 2017 and with bullpens becoming more reliant on velocity that was something he couldn't afford to lose.
It's worth noting that Kintzler has a mutual option for 2019 that starts off as a 2019 team option for 10 million, but if that's declined than it turns into a 5 million player option that is likely to be executed.
This marks the third and most likely final acquisition by the Cubs to a pitching staff that was in need of some serious reinforcements after a shaky first half. Cole Hamels was added to boost their shaky rotation, Jesse Chavez and now Kinzler will boost an already solid Cubs bullpen.
Kintzler, 33, has had a solid season for the Nationals with a 3.59 ERA 42.2 innings pitched. Primarily a ground ball pitcher, Kintzler relies on a sinker to get outs throwing it 75% of the time which could allow him to thrive with the Cubs defense behind him.
Romero was having a solid season for the Myrtle Beach Pelicans with a 3.27 ERA and a 57-17 K-BB ratio. It's a reasonable return for the Nationals as relievers like Romero are ultimately a dime a dozen especially in this level of the minor leagues.
Kintzler has suffered from much harder contact against him as his line drive rate (28.1%) is much higher than his career norm (23.7%), and is partially to blame for a sharp 8 percent decrease in his ground ball rate. A cause for this may be both his sinker and slider dropping a tick from his excellent 2017 and with bullpens becoming more reliant on velocity that was something he couldn't afford to lose.
It's worth noting that Kintzler has a mutual option for 2019 that starts off as a 2019 team option for 10 million, but if that's declined than it turns into a 5 million player option that is likely to be executed.
This marks the third and most likely final acquisition by the Cubs to a pitching staff that was in need of some serious reinforcements after a shaky first half. Cole Hamels was added to boost their shaky rotation, Jesse Chavez and now Kinzler will boost an already solid Cubs bullpen.
Cubs minor league recap: 7/30/2018
AAA Iowa 8-1 victory over the Sacramento River Cats
Notable performers:
Chris Coghlan 2-5 2 runs and an RBI
Trey Martin 2-3 with a run, an RBI, and a walk
Ryan Court 2-4 with a double, 2 runs, 2 RBI, and a walk
Mark Zagunis 1-4 with a walk
Duane Underwood 6.0 IP 5 H 1 ER 1 HR 4 K
Brad Markey 2 IP 1 K
Dillon Maples 1 IP 1 H 1 BB 3 K
AA Tennessee 3-0 loss against the Chattanooga Lookouts
Notable performers:
Charcer Burks 2-4
Zack Short 1-4 with a double and 2 strikeouts
Ian Rice 2-3 with a walk
Duncan Robinson 5 IP 7 H 3 ER 2 BB 1 SO
Jake Stinnett 1 IP 1 K
Class-A South Bend 3-0 loss to the Western Michigan Whitecaps
Notable performers:
Chris Singleton 2-3
Brendan King 2 IP 2 H 3 SO
Low-A Eugene 5-3 victory over the Vancouver Whitecaps
Notable performers:
Grant Fennell 2-4 with a home run and 2 RBI
Jonathan Sierra 1-2 with 2 walks and an RBI
Luis Vazquez 2-4 with a double
Fausto Carrera 6 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 HR 1 BB 3 SO
DSL Cubs1 9-2 victory over the DSL Indians/Brewers
Notable performers:
Rochest Cruz 3-6 with a double and an RBI
Jonathan Rodriguez 2-5 with a double and 2 RBI
Albert Hinirio 3-4 with a double and an RBI
Luis Rodriguez 5 IP 4 H 1 UER 5 SO
DSL Cubs2 14-2 victory over Phillies White
Notable performers:
Pedro Martinez 1-2 with 2 walks and 2 RBI
Widimer Joaquin 2-3 with an RBI and 2 walks
Christhian Espinal 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI
Brailin Pena 3-4 with an RBI and a walk
Francisco Gracia 2 IP 1 BB 2 SO
Notable performers:
Chris Coghlan 2-5 2 runs and an RBI
Trey Martin 2-3 with a run, an RBI, and a walk
Ryan Court 2-4 with a double, 2 runs, 2 RBI, and a walk
Mark Zagunis 1-4 with a walk
Duane Underwood 6.0 IP 5 H 1 ER 1 HR 4 K
Brad Markey 2 IP 1 K
Dillon Maples 1 IP 1 H 1 BB 3 K
AA Tennessee 3-0 loss against the Chattanooga Lookouts
Notable performers:
Charcer Burks 2-4
Zack Short 1-4 with a double and 2 strikeouts
Ian Rice 2-3 with a walk
Duncan Robinson 5 IP 7 H 3 ER 2 BB 1 SO
Jake Stinnett 1 IP 1 K
Class-A South Bend 3-0 loss to the Western Michigan Whitecaps
Notable performers:
Chris Singleton 2-3
Brendan King 2 IP 2 H 3 SO
Low-A Eugene 5-3 victory over the Vancouver Whitecaps
Notable performers:
Grant Fennell 2-4 with a home run and 2 RBI
Jonathan Sierra 1-2 with 2 walks and an RBI
Luis Vazquez 2-4 with a double
Fausto Carrera 6 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 HR 1 BB 3 SO
DSL Cubs1 9-2 victory over the DSL Indians/Brewers
Notable performers:
Rochest Cruz 3-6 with a double and an RBI
Jonathan Rodriguez 2-5 with a double and 2 RBI
Albert Hinirio 3-4 with a double and an RBI
Luis Rodriguez 5 IP 4 H 1 UER 5 SO
DSL Cubs2 14-2 victory over Phillies White
Notable performers:
Pedro Martinez 1-2 with 2 walks and 2 RBI
Widimer Joaquin 2-3 with an RBI and 2 walks
Christhian Espinal 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI
Brailin Pena 3-4 with an RBI and a walk
Francisco Gracia 2 IP 1 BB 2 SO
Monday, July 30, 2018
Cubs should pursue Jeremy Hellickson
If someone had suggested the Washington Nationals would be sellers before the season started they likely would've been called crazy, but here we are on July 30th and the Nationals are 52-53 and 6 games behind the Phillies. An article written by Jeff Passan on Yahoo! Sports suggests the Nationals clubhouse is a "mess" and along with their offensive struggles makes them candidates to sell off.
Obviously the first name that pops into mind is star outfielder Bryce Harper, but the prospects he would cost would make a trade hard to justify with free agency looming after this season. One name that I personally haven't seen mentioned in rumors is Jeremy Hellickson, the veteran righty has had a very solid season and likely wouldn't cost too much.
Hellickson, 31, has quietly had a very solid season with the Nationals with a 3.59 ERA in 15 starts and 72.2 innings pitched. This follows up an awful 2017 campaign where Hellickson had a 5.43 ERA in 30 starts split between the Phillies and Orioles.
The advanced stats back Hellickson up as well, he has an xFIP of 3.92 and a left on base percentage (LOB%) of 71.6. A part of Hellicksons success seems to be an increase in curveball usage and a decrease in four seam usage. This season hitters are hitting just .216 off his curveball compared to .325 against the four-seamer. Hellickson has been having much more success putting the ball on the ground and reducing the amount of hard contact against him which may work in his favor with the Cubs strong defense behind him.
The Cubs rotation has been a question mark all season as Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood have been incredibly disappointing and while Mike Montgomery has been solid his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction. The addition of Cole Hamels helps supplant the problem, but the Cubs should still be looking for an extra arm and I think Hellickson is who they should target.
Obviously the first name that pops into mind is star outfielder Bryce Harper, but the prospects he would cost would make a trade hard to justify with free agency looming after this season. One name that I personally haven't seen mentioned in rumors is Jeremy Hellickson, the veteran righty has had a very solid season and likely wouldn't cost too much.
Hellickson, 31, has quietly had a very solid season with the Nationals with a 3.59 ERA in 15 starts and 72.2 innings pitched. This follows up an awful 2017 campaign where Hellickson had a 5.43 ERA in 30 starts split between the Phillies and Orioles.
The advanced stats back Hellickson up as well, he has an xFIP of 3.92 and a left on base percentage (LOB%) of 71.6. A part of Hellicksons success seems to be an increase in curveball usage and a decrease in four seam usage. This season hitters are hitting just .216 off his curveball compared to .325 against the four-seamer. Hellickson has been having much more success putting the ball on the ground and reducing the amount of hard contact against him which may work in his favor with the Cubs strong defense behind him.
The Cubs rotation has been a question mark all season as Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood have been incredibly disappointing and while Mike Montgomery has been solid his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction. The addition of Cole Hamels helps supplant the problem, but the Cubs should still be looking for an extra arm and I think Hellickson is who they should target.
Which Cubs position player is the most expendable?
The Cubs have a problem that all major league teams would all love to have: too many talented position players, but not enough positions to play them in. It's a good problem to have, but ultimately it leaves someone as the odd man out.
Ian Happ is the one that has been in rumors the most, especially for Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom, but after a slow start he has been crushing the ball with a .253/.375/.445 line. The strikeouts for Happ are an issue as he has struck out at a 35% clip, however, although the samples sizes are small he has brought down his strikeout rate through each month of the season. Happ has been the beneficiary of some good luck with a BABIP of .390 that most likely will go down. One key value that Happ provides is that he can play multiple positions as he has seen time at all three outfield spots along with seeing time at third base. The Cubs might be preparing Happ to fill the role as a Ben Zobrist-type super utility player after Zobrist's contract expires after the 2019 season. Happ is just 23 and still has a lot of potential and if he is traded the return would have to be significant for the Cubs
Addison Russell is another name that was brought up in rumors a few months ago when he was struggling and Manny Machado was still available. Russell is just 24 has had an alright season with the bat with a .264/.335/.374 line which adds up to a 92 wRC+. His 9.3% walk rate along with a 20.3% strikeout rate is pretty solid and shows he at least has good plate discipline and bat control. Russell's lack of power is concerning with just a .110 ISO and a 5.7% HR/FB rate, which may be due to a decrease in both exit velocity and launch angle and a significant decrease in his hard hit percentage. What Russell doesn't provide on offense he certainly does on defense as he is a top tier defensive shortstop with an 11 defensive runs saved and a 2.4 ultimate zone rating. I think Russell is ultimately unlikely to be traded as he provides a ton of defensive value at a premier position and from the outside his offensive issues seem easy to fix.
David Bote initially came up when Ben Zobrist went down in April with some minor back tightness and although he has shuffled up and down between Iowa and Chicago he has done nothing but hit. He has put up a .327/.422/.519 line including a game-tying two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth last Thursday off the Diamonbacks. Like Happ, Bote has benefited from some significant good luck with a .395 BABIP and a most likely unsustainable 95.4 MPH exit velocity and 57.5 hard hit percentage. One thing Bote is really lacking is that he doesn't have the versatility Ian Happ has and his primary position is already locked down by former NL MVP Kris Bryant, who is currently on the disabled list. Ultimately I think Bote is the most likely to be traded as he is the oldest of the trio, and although he won't necessarily provide the return that Ian Happ could provide I think teams would be much more willing to meet the demands for Bote than for Happ. However, with the Cubs current injury situation it is highly unlikely a deal for Bote would happen in-season.
The Cubs are in a tough spot, all three players could provide significant value to the team there ultimately isn't enough playing time to go around when the team is healthy. If the Cubs can use one of these players to make a significant upgrade to their shaky pitching staff I think it would ultimately be the best for the Cubs competitive window.
Ian Happ is the one that has been in rumors the most, especially for Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom, but after a slow start he has been crushing the ball with a .253/.375/.445 line. The strikeouts for Happ are an issue as he has struck out at a 35% clip, however, although the samples sizes are small he has brought down his strikeout rate through each month of the season. Happ has been the beneficiary of some good luck with a BABIP of .390 that most likely will go down. One key value that Happ provides is that he can play multiple positions as he has seen time at all three outfield spots along with seeing time at third base. The Cubs might be preparing Happ to fill the role as a Ben Zobrist-type super utility player after Zobrist's contract expires after the 2019 season. Happ is just 23 and still has a lot of potential and if he is traded the return would have to be significant for the Cubs
Addison Russell is another name that was brought up in rumors a few months ago when he was struggling and Manny Machado was still available. Russell is just 24 has had an alright season with the bat with a .264/.335/.374 line which adds up to a 92 wRC+. His 9.3% walk rate along with a 20.3% strikeout rate is pretty solid and shows he at least has good plate discipline and bat control. Russell's lack of power is concerning with just a .110 ISO and a 5.7% HR/FB rate, which may be due to a decrease in both exit velocity and launch angle and a significant decrease in his hard hit percentage. What Russell doesn't provide on offense he certainly does on defense as he is a top tier defensive shortstop with an 11 defensive runs saved and a 2.4 ultimate zone rating. I think Russell is ultimately unlikely to be traded as he provides a ton of defensive value at a premier position and from the outside his offensive issues seem easy to fix.
David Bote initially came up when Ben Zobrist went down in April with some minor back tightness and although he has shuffled up and down between Iowa and Chicago he has done nothing but hit. He has put up a .327/.422/.519 line including a game-tying two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth last Thursday off the Diamonbacks. Like Happ, Bote has benefited from some significant good luck with a .395 BABIP and a most likely unsustainable 95.4 MPH exit velocity and 57.5 hard hit percentage. One thing Bote is really lacking is that he doesn't have the versatility Ian Happ has and his primary position is already locked down by former NL MVP Kris Bryant, who is currently on the disabled list. Ultimately I think Bote is the most likely to be traded as he is the oldest of the trio, and although he won't necessarily provide the return that Ian Happ could provide I think teams would be much more willing to meet the demands for Bote than for Happ. However, with the Cubs current injury situation it is highly unlikely a deal for Bote would happen in-season.
The Cubs are in a tough spot, all three players could provide significant value to the team there ultimately isn't enough playing time to go around when the team is healthy. If the Cubs can use one of these players to make a significant upgrade to their shaky pitching staff I think it would ultimately be the best for the Cubs competitive window.
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