Breaking down the Marlins

 Tomorrow the Cubs will play their first playoff game since the 2018 National League Wild Card game. Their opponent in the three-game Wild Card series will be the Miami Marlins who are making their first playoff appearances since 2003 as the Florida Marlins (and we all know how that turned out for the Cubs). But who are these Marlins?

The Marlins finished 31-29 making the playoffs thanks to the fact that they finished second in the NL East. They were very lucky to reach that record as they scored 263 runs while allowing 304 to finish with a Pythagorean record of 26-34, but this is baseball and the playoffs are a crapshoot so don't take anything for granted.

By far the strength of the Marlins is their starting pitching. They've got an extremely formidable 1-2-3 led by 24-year old Pablo Lopez, 24-year old Sandy Alcantara, and 21-year old Sixto Sanchez. All three of them throw fastballs in the mid-90s, while not walking a ton of hitters, and that combination has the potential to give the Cubs hitters fits due to their contact deficiency.

On the flip side the bullpen for the Marlins is a glaring weakness, they finished with the third worst bullpen ERA in the National League at 5.50 and the 5.39 overall FIP doesn't paint a better picture either. They finished with the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball as they struck out just 18.1 percent of hitters while walking 11.4 percent which was the ninth highest rate in baseball.

They did have some nice individual seasons though as James Hoyt posted a 1.23 ERA (3.19 FIP) in 24 appearances along with 20 strikeouts to eight walks. Former Cub Brandon Kintzler had a 2.22 ERA in 24 appearances, but his 5.00 FIP along with a slightly high home run rate along with very little strikeouts suggest that he is due for some regression. Their other reliable guy is Brad Boxberger who had an ERA of exactly 3 in 23 appearances, but is slightly home run prone as he allowed three in 18 innings pitched along with eight walks.

On offense they are primarily carried by Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar, and Brian Anderson. They did pick up Starling Marte at the trade deadline, but he has struggled in Miami with a .286 OBP and 22-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112 plate appearances.

Rojas, 31, had a breakout year in 2020 posting a .304/.392/.496 line in 143 plate appearances along with four home runs and an impressive 18-16 strikeout to walk rate. He posted by far the highest ISO of his career beating out his previous career high by nearly 100 points. It doesn't even seem to be that much luck either as his .330 BABIP is higher than his .294 average, but isn't an absurd number. It just seems like he increased his launch angle and the results show it.

Although Aguilar is no longer the All-Star player he once was in 2018, he is still someone to be careful with. He hit eight home runs along with a .809 OPS and a .180 ISO so he's definitely no slouch at the dish. He's a very disciplined hitter and doesn't strike out much so the Cubs will have to try and keep the ball down and hope they don't leave something up in the zone that can be elevated.

At the hot corner Anderson has been one of the very few consistently reliable hitters for the Marlins over the past few years and that continued in 2020 as he posted a .255/.345/.465 line in 229 plate appearances along with a team leading 11 home runs. Anderson, however, can be exploited as he does strike out at a near 30 percent clip and his expected batting average of .228 along with a deflated exit velocity suggest he may not have been as good as his raw stats.

Elsewhere the Marlins have Matt Joyce, who is a very disciplined hitter, but doesn't hit for much power. It's the same story with Jon Berti who posted an impressive .388 OBP, but is dragged down by his .350 slugging. Garrett Cooper had a very nice season with a .283/.353/.500 line as the DH, but it came in just 133 plate appearances.

The biggest weak link in their starting lineup is likely catcher Jorge Alfaro, who posted a .226/.280/.344 line and isn't even a highly regarded defensive catcher. Their other option behind the dish is Chad Wallach who posted better pitch framing numbers, but might be an even worse hitter than Alfaro.

The Marlins are definitely a team not to be taken lightly, but they do have some weaknesses that can be exploited. Their biggest threat to the Cubs is their starting pitching, but if the Cubs can work at bats early and drive up the pitch count than they can get to the bullpen quickly where they have a much better chance to feast.

Billy Hamilton added to roster, Jose Martinez optioned

 In order to make room for the recently claimed OF Billy Hamilton the Cubs have optioned OF Jose Martinez to the South Bend site. Martinez was only recently acquired in a trade with the Rays at the trade deadline.

Martinez had really struggled early with the Cubs going 0-14 with a walk and three strikeouts. Part of his struggles is a sharp increase in his ground ball rate, along with a career worst line drive rate, which means he is getting on top of the ball and not making much solid contact. Considering the offense has been struggling and he needs to be able to drive the ball to be valuable due to his...limited defensive skills and he has not been doing that.

Meanwhile, Hamilton can provide a huge spark off the bench thanks to his defense and base running ability. He isn't much of a hitter at all with a career .295 on-base percentage and a .083 ISO, but he can wreak havoc on the base paths with 302 career stolen bases along with a 81.8 percent success rate. His defense is phenomenal too as he had already saved two runs in 62.2 innings in center field and has saved 75 in 6464.1 innings throughout his career along with throwing out 57 base runners.

Cubs make roster moves

The Cubs made several roster moves prior to Mondays game against the Cardinals, trying to give a slumping team a jolt.

Speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton has been claimed off of waivers from the New York Mets. Hamilton, 29, has 302 career stolen bases in 826 big league games throughout this year. He has been horrible at the dish throughout his career with a .241/.295/.324 line over his career, but he can be extremely valuable as a pinch runner and is considered an excellent defender in center field as well. He's gone just 1-22 this year, but he can definitely be a weapon for the Cubs.

They also added infielder Ildemaro Vargas to the big league roster. Vargas was claimed off waivers from the Minnesota Twins on Saturday. Vargas has hit just .190/.222/.262 in 45 plate appearances split between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Twins this year. He was a solid defender at second base last year, but he doesn't seem to be much more than an organizational piece.

The Cubs also DFA'd left handed reliever Matt Dermody. He pitched a clean inning against the Cardinals on Saturday showing a 94 MPH fastball, but the Cubs needed the roster spot and clearly felt like he was expendable.

Cubs make flurry of roster moves

 Prior to the start of tonights three game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates the Cubs made a bunch of roster moves to accommodate for four trades and two players activated from the injured list.

In total the Cubs added Jose Martinez, Kris Bryant, Steven Souza Jr, and Cameron Maybin to the active roster. To make room for them the Cubs have optioned Albert Almora Jr, Tyler Chatwood is on the injured list with a right forearm strain, and Casey Sadler has been designated for assignment. Andrew Chafin remains on the injured list

It's a really frustrating turn for Almora who just hasn't turned into the player the Cubs have hoped he could be. In 34 plate appearances he is hitting .167/.265/.200 along with nine strikeouts and one extra base hit. His approach at the plate just hasn't shown any growth.  His 57.1 percent ground ball rate is way too high and his 85.3 MPH average exit velocity didn't paint any sort of positive picture for the future. Ultimately his defense hasn't been good enough to make up for his complete lack of offense and his speed isn't even good enough that he can be an effective pinch runner. It's possible Almora is a really strong non-tender candidate this offseason.

Chatwood was pulled from his start Sunday against the Reds after calling for the trainer when he spiked a pitch to Joey Votto. Although not much is known about the severity of the injury if this turns out to the last start of Chatwoods time with the Cubs it would be an incredibly disappointing finish. He showed promise at time this year especially in his first two starts, but his last three starts saw a complete regression in his command and ability to miss bats. Overall he has a 5.30 ERA (3.29 FIP) in 18.2 innings along with 25 strikeouts and nine walks.

Sadler was an offseason acquisition from the Dodgers and just hasn't been able to put it all together. In nine and a third innings pitched he has posted a 5.79 ERA giving up six earned runs thanks to two home runs and eight walks surrendered. He only threw 40.6 percent of his pitches in the zone, and when he allowed contact it was hit hard with a 30.8 percent line drive rate.