What does Jake Arrieta have left in the tank?

 Last night it was reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network that the Cubs and former Cy Young Winner Jake Arrieta were close to a reunion. According to Patrick Mooney of the Athletic the deal is for one year and will pay the righty $6 million. Arrieta, 34, is coming off a injury shortened 2020 season.

The Cubs first acquired Arrieta from the Orioles in early July 2013 in the infamous Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger for Pedro Strop and Arrieta deal. He almost immediately became a key part of the Cubs rotation and was a key starting pitcher for the 2016 Cubs team that ended a 108-year drought. 

In a three season stretch from 2014-16 Arrieta was one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. He started 89 games posting a 2.42 ERA throughout 583 innings he struck out 593 while walking 165. He threw two no-hitters and won a Cy Young Award in that span while starting seven postseason games.

His second half of 2015 may be one of the most dominant pitching performances of all time, in 100.1 innings pitched after the All-Star break he allowed only nine earned runs while striking out 103 and walking only 20. He held opposing hitters to a .150/.203/.205 line and it seemed like every time he took the bump he had a legitimate chance to throw a no-hitter (which he did do against the Dodgers).

Arrieta departed the Cubs after a slightly down, but still fairly good 2017 and signed a three year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. He saw his numbers decline significantly for the Phillies as he started just 64 games while battling various hamstring and elbow issues.

In those 64 starts he posted a 4.36 ERA in 352.2 innings while striking out just 280 while walking 124. That includes a very rough 2020 that saw him post a 5.08 ERA in 44.1 innings pitched while striking out only 32 batters and walking 16. He no longer has the overpowering stuff that allowed him to dominate with the Cubs and it shows.

The big culprit in Arrietas decline has been the huge loss of velocity. His sinker averaged just 92 MPH which is a far cry from the 95.3 MPH during his Cy Young season. Hitters were not fooled by the pitch as they hit .402 with 11 extra base hits against it while swinging and missing just 7.9 percent of the time.

He just doesn't fool batters as much as he used to, his 16.8 strikeout percentage was his worst since he was a 24-year old rookie and he ranked in the lower half among pitchers for both whiff percentage and limiting hard contact. 

The trends have not been good and Cubs fans should definitely not expect Arrieta to return back to his dominant form, but if he can reinvent himself to become more of a contact management guy like Kyle Hendricks he can still be a decent starter. The velocity decline is a problem, but Cubs pitchers have shown in recent years that you don't need velocity to be a good starting pitcher.

Cubs bring back Andrew Chafin

 According to Zach Buchanan of The Athletic the Cubs are bringing back 30-year old LHP Andrew Chafin on a big league contract that will pay him $2.25 million in 2021 and include a $5.25 million mutual option according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

The Cubs acquired Chafin at the trade deadline for a PTBNL that eventually turned into being infielder Ronny Simon. Chafin only made four appearances with the Cubs as he was recovering from a finger sprain when they acquired him. He pitched fairly well allowing just one run in three innings while striking out three and walking one. Of course the only run he allowed was a walk off home run, but he does have a history of success in the big leagues especially against lefties. In his career lefties have posted a .230/.306/.311 line in 546 career plate appearances.

Overall his body of work for 2020 was a mixed bag, he was solid in his limited Cubs sample size, but he struggled for the Diamondbacks with the tune of a 8.10 ERA in a very small sample size of 6.2 innings pitched. One thing to pay attention to for next season is his strikeout rate as he posted the best strikeout rate of his career striking out 13 of the 45 hitters he faced.

Chafin throws fairly hard for a leftty with a four seam fastball that averages 93.6 MPH, but it wasn't a really effective pitch for him in 2020 as batters hit .375 with a 10.7 whiff percentage with the pitch. His most effective pitch has been a slider which batters have batted under .200 against his entire career and induces a whiff nearly half the time.

The money is a big larger than what you would expect, but it seems like the baseball budget has suddenly opened after what seems like a couples years of squeezing. Still though, it's nice to see the Cubs making moves that seems like they are going to attempt to win a division that they feel is winnable and before they lose some key players.

Chafin isn't a world-beater and isn't going to win any awards, but he has a track record of being an above average reliever and helps a Cubs bullpen that will definitely need a ton of depth going into the season.

Cubs sign interesting bounceback candidate with Trevor Williams

 In a move to shake up their shaky starting pitching the Cubs have signed former Pirates RHP Trevor Williams according to Evan Altman of the Cubs Insider. The deal is pending a physical, but once completed will pay Williams $2.5 million according to Jon Heyman.

Williams, 28, opted for free agency after being designated for assignment by the Pirates after an incredibly disappointing 2020 season. In 11 starts Williams allowed a 6.18 ERA in 55.1 innings pitched allowing an alarming 15 home runs along with 49 strikeouts and 21 walks. Blaming the shortened season would be fair, but he also had a disappointing 2019 campaign as well posting a 5.38 ERA while showing the same issue with home runs and being very hittable in general.

However, Williams has had a success as recently as 2018 where he threw 170.2 innings with a 3.11 ERA, and while he only struck out 126 batters with a below average whiff rate, he did do a good job of limiting hard contact ranking as among the best pitchers in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage. 

Like the rest of his potential rotation mates Williams is not exactly a hard-thrower with a four-seam fastball that averages 91.5 MPH that he throws 51 percent of the time. He works off the fastball with a slider in the lower 80s and a mid-80s change-up. He also throws a sinker and curveball sparingly. 

What's interesting is that in his breakout 2018 season he actually used the sinker as his secondary pitch and the slider was used just 15 percent of the time, but his sinker was probably his worst pitch, while his slider was the most used put-away pitch and induced a whiff nearly 30 percent of the time. Starting in 2019 he begun using the slider much more and the sinker significantly less to mixed results.

 In 2020 the slider was hit around to a .348 batting average against, but it's worth noting that Baseball Savant says the expected batting average against the pitch was .232. When batters made contact they only hit it at a 85.6 MPH rate with a launch angle of only 5. Despite the struggles with the pitch he also induced a whiff 39.8 percent of the time. If he can get his slider right it has the potential to be an excellent put-away pitch for Williams.

This is a really shrewd move going for an upside guy like Williams. The rotation still has question marks, but if Williams can bounceback he will be a key member of the rotation. What's even better is that he has one more season of arbitration eligibility left so if the Cubs like what they see he will be around for another season, but if they don't they will be able to cut ties.

Cubs add OF Joc Pederson

In a bit of a surprise due to the Cubs alleged money issues the team has signed outfielder Joc Pederson to one year deal worth $7 million. The deal was initially reported by Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Joel Sherman provided the financial details along with the inclusion of a 2022 mutual option.

Pederson struggled through a rough 2020 season with a .190/.285/.397 line along with seven home runs in 138 plate appearances, but he was not nearly the only player that struggled in the weird 2020 season so it's fair to give him a pass especially given his previous track record. He is coming off a two year stretch between 2018-19 where he hit .249/.331/.530 along with an impressive 61 home runs in 957 plate appearances. 

He is a very similar hitter to Kyle Schwarber, but one thing that he is significantly better at is making contact. Although 2020 saw Pedersons zone contact rate drop his career rate of 79 percent is still better than Schwarbers 76 percent mark. You can see the difference in strikeout rate as well, with Pederson striking out 24.2 percent of the time in his career with 132 per 162 games, while Schwarber has struck out 28 percent of the time with 174 per 162 games.

If there is one thing Pederson cannot do it is hit lefties. He has accumulated just 385 plate appearances against southpaws in his career and has managed to hit just .191/.266/.310 with only nine home runs and 111 strikeouts compared to 36 walks. Plain and simple, he sucks against lefties, and it's possible he finds himself in a platoon with Phil Ervin (who has an .811 OPS against lefties). It is interesting that Jeff Passan mentions Pedersons opportunity to play everyday which suggests that he could at least get a chance with lefties, but based on his track record any experiment like that will not last long.

Defensively, Pederson will most likely spend most of his time in left field, but he has also played most of his big league innings in center field so it's definitely a possibility to see him there as well. He won't wow you on defense with decent range, but he lacks the arm that Schwarber had. A Pederson-Happ-Heyward outfield has a lot of promise, but there is still some work the Cubs can do to add some depth.

The Cubs roster still has a lot of holes, especially in pitching, but it's worth noting that David Kaplan tweeted that Tom Ricketts recently increased the player payroll. He mentions how the Cubs view the division as "winnable", which makes sense when you consider that no one in the NL Central has made any significant improvements and teams like the Pirates and Reds have both lost key contributors. The Cubs still have some very good players, especially on offense, and adding Pederson gives them a very legit power bat to replace Kyle Schwarber.

Cubs sign RHP Kohl Stewart

 The Chicago Cubs announced today that they have signed RHP Kohl Stewart to a major league contract for the 2021 season.

The former fourth overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, Stewart chose to opt out of the 2020 season and was granted free agency by the Baltimore Orioles at the conclusion of the season.

Stewart, 26, has made 17 appearances (six starts) between 2018-19 for the Minnesota Twins. In those appearances he has posted a 4.79 ERA in 62 innings, he was very hittable as hitters collected 63 hits (including 6 home runs) while he struck out just 34 batters.

The sample size is limited, but he has shown much more success as a reliever with a 3.48 ERA across 33.2 innings pitched along with striking out 20, although that does come with a concerning 1.67 K-BB ratio.

He's not going to blow away batters, but his 92 MPH fastball would actually make him one of the harder throwers in the Cubs rotation especially compared to Kyle Hendricks (87 MPH), Zach Davies (88 MPH), and Alec Mills (90 MPH).

He throws the fastball about 55 percent of the time along with a slider that he uses about 35 percent of the time, he also throws a curveball and change-up, but they are both thrown less than ten percent of the time to not exactly inspiring results.

It seems like his future is destined for the bullpen with his lack of an effective third pitch, but the Cubs are incredibly starved for pitching and he is young enough that there is still the possibility that there is some untapped potential that can be unlocked.

Cubs to sign Austin Romine

 The Cubs added to their catching depth today as they have inked veteran catcher Austin Romine to a one-year deal according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the deal is pending a physical. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports the deal is worth $1.5 million.

With the trade of Victor Caratini, a backup catcher was a pressing concern for the Cubs and after missing out on Jason Castro they make a solid signing with Romine.

Romine, 31, struggled with the bat for the Tigers in 2020 hitting just .238/.259/.323 in 37 games and 135 plate appearances. It's worth noting that he was hitting .291/.308/.418 going into September, but after a knee injury that required him to miss a few games he came back and went just 8-51 with only one extra base hit and two talks to 24 strikeouts,

Although he doesn't have much of a reputation as a hitter, he has a track record as a pretty solid defender as he saved a projected 8 runs from his pitch framing between 2017-19 and getting around 50 percent of the pitches he received called for a strike.

The veteran catcher will never be known as much of a hitter with a lifetime .639 OPS and wRC+ of 54, but he is a pretty solid defensive catcher which will be important especially given all the question marks surrounding the Cubs pitching as of now.

Despite all the question marks surrounding the Cubs future, they are actually in a really good position when it comes to the catching position. Willson Contreras is a top-5 catcher in all of baseball and Romine is a solid back up, but they also got Miguel Amaya who has been ranked as a top 100 prospect in all of baseball, and interesting names such as Ethan Hearn in the lower minors.