Cubs continue to indicate a "heavy restart"

 As the 2020 offseason continues the rumors continue to linger about the Cubs trying to blow things up, and with the resignation of Theo Epstein on Tuesday, it only seems to lend credence to those rumors. 

Buster Olney of ESPN reported on Sunday that "Cubs are signaling there will be significant turnover on the roster, with a willingness to move almost any veteran" and last night Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested that "a hard restart could be in order" according to an unnamed National League executive.

The question is who do the Cubs trade, and can they get good value out of them?

Kris Bryant is the first name that'll immediately come to mind, the soon-to-be 29-year old was awful to say the least in 2020. The former NL MVP hit just .209/.293/.351 with five home runs in 34 games and 147 plate appearances while battling finger, oblique, and wrist injuries. Most concerning, he saw his strikeout rate climb to the highest rate since his rookie year, while his walk rate plummeted to a career low 8.2 percent.

Bryant is clearly a very good player when he is healthy, as he hit 30+ home runs and had a 130+ wRC+ as recently as 2019, but he has also missed time in each of the past three seasons due to various injuries, and his numbers dip when he is battling any sort of ailment.

It's hard to see the Cubs trading Bryant this offseason unless they are seriously overwhelmed by an offer, his trade value is likely at an all-time low and other teams will want to see if he can bounce back in 2021. He is a free agent after the 2021 season so his value is even further deflated by the fact that he is potentially just a rental.

Javier Baez is another possibility, but he is in a similar situation to Bryant when you consider he's also a free agent after next season. He had an absolutely atrocious 2020, but he doesn't have the injury excuse to fall back on. Baez looked legitimately lost at the plate at times in 2020 as his .238 on-base percentage was the worst of all qualified players. The Cubs are likely in a similar position with Baez where they could hold on to him and see if he bounces back and builds some trade value.

Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish are also possibilities, but it would likely come with the Cubs having to eat a portion of their salaries in order of unload their contracts. It's hard to see either of these guys going as the Cubs are unlikely to receive equal value for either of them, although Darvish would certainly fetch much more than Heyward thanks to finishing 2nd in Cy Young voting.

One player it is hard to see the Cubs trading is Anthony Rizzo, as he is considered the heart and soul of this team, and has been a consistent force for the team for almost 10 years. He has some question marks long-term thanks to his back issues the past few seasons, but it would be hard to see him in any uniform other than the Cubs.

It is a high possibility that Kyle Schwarber is traded, he's consistently been one of the Cubs best power threats over the past few years, but he's also struggled to hit for a consistent average and has a skill set that is fairly replaceable. 

Although I feel it is unlikely, trading Willson Contreras is also a possibility. Top catching prospect Miguel Amaya is getting closer to being big league ready and the Cubs have some intriguing prospects at the lower level as well. Contreras posted a 109 wRC+ in 2020 along with completely turning around his framing metrics, it's highly possible he has the highest trade value of anyone on the club, but Contreras provides a ton of value to the Cubs now that might be hard to let go off.

I do not envy the position Jed Hoyer is in, he will have to make some very tough decisions for the organization that may hurt now, but will benefit the long-term future of the organization.

Theo Epstein has resigned

 You could see the writing on the wall for a while, but today the Chicago Cubs announced that Theo Epstein will step down as President of Baseball Operations on November 20th, and General Manager Jed Hoyer will take his position.

You could argue that the Cubs could've won more during his tenure, but ultimately they ended the longest championship drought in the history of professional sports and built an impressive core.

Obviously this will have major ramifications for the Cubs both on and off the field, but it is way too early to speculate what this will lead to for the team. Epstein and Cubs owner Tom Ricketts are scheduled to meet with the media later today.

Here is the full statement from the Cubs: 

"The Chicago Cubs today announced that Theo Epstein will step down from his role as President of Baseball Operations effective November 20 and depart the organization after nine seasons. Jed Hoyer, who joined the club in November 2011 as Executive Vice President/General Manager, will be named President of Baseball Operations.

“Theo and I have been communicating about this possible move for a couple of years, and we have been working together toward a transition that makes sense for the Cubs and for him,” said Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts. “The timing is right for a number of reasons, and most importantly we are both thrilled that Jed is the person succeeding Theo. We have had our most successful period in over a century under Theo’s leadership, and we are grateful for everything he has given to this organization and this city. Jed has been a big part of that success, too, and offers a combination of continuity and a fresh perspective that will serve us well as we look forward to another period of sustained success.”

“For the rest of my life, I will cherish having been part of the great Chicago Cubs organization during this historic period,” said Epstein. “All of the things that have made this experience so special — the fans, the players, the managers and coaches, ownership, my front office colleagues, the uniqueness of the Wrigley experience, the history — make it so tough to leave the Cubs. But I believe this is the right decision for me even if it’s a difficult one. And now is the right time rather than a year from now. The organization faces a number of decisions this winter that carry long-term consequences; those types of decisions are best made by someone who will be here for a long period rather than just one more year. Jed has earned this opportunity and is absolutely the right person to take over this baseball operation at such an important time.

“I am grateful to everyone with the Cubs: to the Ricketts family for this opportunity as well as for their loyalty; to the fans for their support and the depth of their emotional connection with the team; and to the players, coaches, staff and my front office colleagues for their friendship, excellence and dedication to helping us accomplish our initial goals of regular October baseball and a World Championship.”

“I have been so fortunate to work alongside Theo for 17 of the last 19 years,” said Hoyer. “I could not have had a better mentor or a more loyal and trusted friend. He has already changed two storied franchises with his passion, creativity, intellect and leadership. I have no question that the next chapters in his career will be equally impressive and impactful.

“I am thankful to the Ricketts family for bestowing me with the opportunity to lead the Cubs baseball operation.  For the last nine years, I have worked alongside so many dedicated colleagues with one goal in mind — to build a team and an organization that makes Cubs fans proud and provides them with memories of a lifetime. I am thrilled that this leadership transition will provide continuity to a department that has had tremendous successes over the past six seasons. Ultimately, this transition is about the future, and I look forward to constantly pushing the Cubs to evolve and grow to ensure that there is sustained success at Wrigley Field.”

After rebuilding seasons in 2012-14, Epstein’s Cubs have amassed 505 regular season victories since 2015, second-most in the N.L. and third-most in the majors behind only the Dodgers (528) and Astros (510). The Cubs are one of just four clubs to make at least five postseason appearances in the last six seasons, joining the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros.

Epstein, 46, joined the Cubs on October 25, 2011, and led the effort to restructure the Cubs’ Baseball Operations department. He acquired talent through trades (Anthony Rizzo, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Dexter Fowler), drafts (Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber) and free agency (Jon Lester, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward) that led to the 2016 World Series victory, ending the organization’s 108-year title drought. All but two of the 25 players on the Cubs 2016 World Series-winning roster were acquired under Epstein’s watch, including 13 via trade.

Epstein, who prior to joining Chicago led Boston to World Series titles in 2004 and 2007, departs the organization as one of just five executives all-time to lead multiple organizations to World Series titles. He is just the fourth to do so in both leagues, joining Hall of Famers Pat Gillick and John Schuerholz as well as Dave Dombrowski. Epstein, who was 30 during the 2004 World Series, remains the youngest general manager in baseball history to win a championship.

Hoyer, 46, enters his 20th season in baseball operations and his 10th with the Cubs. He has been involved in a leadership role in every aspect of the Cubs’ Baseball Operations department under Epstein, helping the organization revamp its amateur and professional scouting departments while creating and expanding the research and development analytics group. Starting in 2015 following the team’s rebuild, Cubs pitching has ranked second in the majors with a .235 opponent batting average and .690 opponent OPS while the team’s 3.66 ERA ranks third in that span. Cubs hitters in the last six seasons lead the N.L. and rank second in the majors with a .332 on-base percentage while their .755 OPS ranks fourth in the N.L.

Prior to joining the Cubs, Hoyer served as general manager of the Padres for the 2010-11 seasons, and in 2010 guided the club to its fourth 90-win campaign in the franchise’s 42-year history despite featuring the lowest payroll in baseball. At the 2010 All-Star break, he acquired six-time All-Star and 2002 A.L. MVP Miguel Tejada along with outfielder Ryan Ludwick. The 2010 squad had a 15-win improvement over the 2009 Padres club (75-87), the largest win improvement among any team in the majors that season.

Hoyer began his major league career with the Red Sox from 2002-09 and was actively involved in player development, major league scouting, quantitative analysis and advance scouting. He was a member of Epstein’s baseball operations department that won a pair of World Championships (2004 and 2007), advanced to four League Championship Series (2003, 2004, 2007 and 2008) and won 95 or more games six different seasons.

A native of Plymouth, N.H., Hoyer is a graduate of Wesleyan University, where he helped lead the Cardinals to the championship game of the NCAA Division III World Series in 1994 as a pitcher and shortstop.

The Javy Baez long-term concern

 Despite winning the division the 2020 Cubs season was an overall disappointment. Several key players had down seasons and the organization finds itself in a difficult position on where to go for the 2021 season. 

One of the more concerning slumps of the 2020 season was Javier Baez who had by far his worst season in the big leagues since his 52 game debut in 2014. In 59 games and 235 plate appearances Baez hit just .203/.238/.360 with just eight home runs and walking only seven times while striking out 75. He looked completely lost at the plate at times and pitchers took full advantage of that.

His batted ball data suggests he just wasn't making as loud contact as he usually does as his 89.4 MPH average exit velocity was the lowest since 2017, and his career high pop up rate of 8.7 percent came with a sacrifice to his line drive and fly ball rate. Most concerning, he struggled to drive the ball at the top of the zone with a 84.1 MPH average exit velocity in the top-third of the zone compared to 98.2 in 2019 and 95.8 in his MVP runner-up campaign in 2018.

Another big concern with Baez is his swing-and-miss problems. He actually posted the lowest chase rate since his rookie year, but when he did chase he made contact just 50 percent of the time which is well below the league average of 59 percent. Despite chasing less he posted the worst whiff rate of his career swinging and missing 38 percent of the time, well above the league average of 24 percent and continues a three year trend of that rate going up for him. It can suggest two things, both are not good. 1. He could be starting to lose some bat speed which would be a serious long term concern or 2. He was basically just guessing at the plate this year which already adds to the concern about his plate discipline.

In September, Baez claimed that the lack of in-game video affected his ability to make adjustments saying "It sucks. I make my adjustments during the game. I watch my swing, I watch where the ball was, where contact was. I'm really mad we don't have it," In-game video was taken away thanks to the Houston Astros cheating to win a World Series, and it's fair to wonder how much of an effect it had on hitters. The ability to look at the video immediately after an at bat had to have been incredibly helpful to hitters in making adjustments on the fly.

Defensively Baez was excellent as usual, he finally captured his first Gold Glove posting four outs above average and making 62 plays considered out of his zone. One thing that is worth paying attention to is his sprint speed, he went from sprinting to 28.6 feet per second in 2019 to 27.9 in 2020. It's a small drop, but as Baez is entering his age 28 season he is slowly getting to the point where his athleticism will start to decline and he will have to rely a lot more on baseball IQ and instinct to make plays.

The problem for the Cubs is that Baez has one more year left of arbitration eligibility before he is a free agent and the team will be forced to make a decision on what to do with him. Baez is beloved by fans thanks to his flashy plays and when he is actually hitting he is one of the more explosive players in the leagues, but it is fair to question whether his lack of plate discipline will be exploited more than it already is especially once his bat speed begins to decline.

2021 will be a crucial year for Baez. He will have to bounce back in a big way in order to earn a big contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects Baez to earn anywhere between $10-$11.9 million in 2021. Baez is not a non-tender candidate due to his previous success and the fact that 2020 was in general just a funky year for everyone, but beyond 2021 remains a question mark due to his struggles and the uncertainties surrounding the Cubs financial situation.