Despite winning the division the 2020 Cubs season was an overall disappointment. Several key players had down seasons and the organization finds itself in a difficult position on where to go for the 2021 season.
One of the more concerning slumps of the 2020 season was Javier Baez who had by far his worst season in the big leagues since his 52 game debut in 2014. In 59 games and 235 plate appearances Baez hit just .203/.238/.360 with just eight home runs and walking only seven times while striking out 75. He looked completely lost at the plate at times and pitchers took full advantage of that.
His batted ball data suggests he just wasn't making as loud contact as he usually does as his 89.4 MPH average exit velocity was the lowest since 2017, and his career high pop up rate of 8.7 percent came with a sacrifice to his line drive and fly ball rate. Most concerning, he struggled to drive the ball at the top of the zone with a 84.1 MPH average exit velocity in the top-third of the zone compared to 98.2 in 2019 and 95.8 in his MVP runner-up campaign in 2018.
Another big concern with Baez is his swing-and-miss problems. He actually posted the lowest chase rate since his rookie year, but when he did chase he made contact just 50 percent of the time which is well below the league average of 59 percent. Despite chasing less he posted the worst whiff rate of his career swinging and missing 38 percent of the time, well above the league average of 24 percent and continues a three year trend of that rate going up for him. It can suggest two things, both are not good. 1. He could be starting to lose some bat speed which would be a serious long term concern or 2. He was basically just guessing at the plate this year which already adds to the concern about his plate discipline.
In September, Baez claimed that the lack of in-game video affected his ability to make adjustments saying "It sucks. I make my adjustments during the game. I watch my swing, I watch where the ball was, where contact was. I'm really mad we don't have it," In-game video was taken away thanks to the Houston Astros cheating to win a World Series, and it's fair to wonder how much of an effect it had on hitters. The ability to look at the video immediately after an at bat had to have been incredibly helpful to hitters in making adjustments on the fly.
Defensively Baez was excellent as usual, he finally captured his first Gold Glove posting four outs above average and making 62 plays considered out of his zone. One thing that is worth paying attention to is his sprint speed, he went from sprinting to 28.6 feet per second in 2019 to 27.9 in 2020. It's a small drop, but as Baez is entering his age 28 season he is slowly getting to the point where his athleticism will start to decline and he will have to rely a lot more on baseball IQ and instinct to make plays.
The problem for the Cubs is that Baez has one more year left of arbitration eligibility before he is a free agent and the team will be forced to make a decision on what to do with him. Baez is beloved by fans thanks to his flashy plays and when he is actually hitting he is one of the more explosive players in the leagues, but it is fair to question whether his lack of plate discipline will be exploited more than it already is especially once his bat speed begins to decline.
2021 will be a crucial year for Baez. He will have to bounce back in a big way in order to earn a big contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects Baez to earn anywhere between $10-$11.9 million in 2021. Baez is not a non-tender candidate due to his previous success and the fact that 2020 was in general just a funky year for everyone, but beyond 2021 remains a question mark due to his struggles and the uncertainties surrounding the Cubs financial situation.
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