As the 2020 offseason continues the rumors continue to linger about the Cubs trying to blow things up, and with the resignation of Theo Epstein on Tuesday, it only seems to lend credence to those rumors.
Buster Olney of ESPN reported on Sunday that "Cubs are signaling there will be significant turnover on the roster, with a willingness to move almost any veteran" and last night Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested that "a hard restart could be in order" according to an unnamed National League executive.
The question is who do the Cubs trade, and can they get good value out of them?
Kris Bryant is the first name that'll immediately come to mind, the soon-to-be 29-year old was awful to say the least in 2020. The former NL MVP hit just .209/.293/.351 with five home runs in 34 games and 147 plate appearances while battling finger, oblique, and wrist injuries. Most concerning, he saw his strikeout rate climb to the highest rate since his rookie year, while his walk rate plummeted to a career low 8.2 percent.
Bryant is clearly a very good player when he is healthy, as he hit 30+ home runs and had a 130+ wRC+ as recently as 2019, but he has also missed time in each of the past three seasons due to various injuries, and his numbers dip when he is battling any sort of ailment.
It's hard to see the Cubs trading Bryant this offseason unless they are seriously overwhelmed by an offer, his trade value is likely at an all-time low and other teams will want to see if he can bounce back in 2021. He is a free agent after the 2021 season so his value is even further deflated by the fact that he is potentially just a rental.
Javier Baez is another possibility, but he is in a similar situation to Bryant when you consider he's also a free agent after next season. He had an absolutely atrocious 2020, but he doesn't have the injury excuse to fall back on. Baez looked legitimately lost at the plate at times in 2020 as his .238 on-base percentage was the worst of all qualified players. The Cubs are likely in a similar position with Baez where they could hold on to him and see if he bounces back and builds some trade value.
Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish are also possibilities, but it would likely come with the Cubs having to eat a portion of their salaries in order of unload their contracts. It's hard to see either of these guys going as the Cubs are unlikely to receive equal value for either of them, although Darvish would certainly fetch much more than Heyward thanks to finishing 2nd in Cy Young voting.
One player it is hard to see the Cubs trading is Anthony Rizzo, as he is considered the heart and soul of this team, and has been a consistent force for the team for almost 10 years. He has some question marks long-term thanks to his back issues the past few seasons, but it would be hard to see him in any uniform other than the Cubs.
It is a high possibility that Kyle Schwarber is traded, he's consistently been one of the Cubs best power threats over the past few years, but he's also struggled to hit for a consistent average and has a skill set that is fairly replaceable.
Although I feel it is unlikely, trading Willson Contreras is also a possibility. Top catching prospect Miguel Amaya is getting closer to being big league ready and the Cubs have some intriguing prospects at the lower level as well. Contreras posted a 109 wRC+ in 2020 along with completely turning around his framing metrics, it's highly possible he has the highest trade value of anyone on the club, but Contreras provides a ton of value to the Cubs now that might be hard to let go off.
I do not envy the position Jed Hoyer is in, he will have to make some very tough decisions for the organization that may hurt now, but will benefit the long-term future of the organization.
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