Just a few weeks after acquiring catcher Martin Maldonado from the Kansas City Royals, the Cubs have shipped him off to the Houston Astros according to Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Astros beat writer Chandler Rome reports the Cubs are getting back Tony Kemp.
Maldonado appeared in only four games with the Cubs collection zero hits in 13 plate appearances with two walks and five strikeouts. He was never expected to be a huge contributor with the bat, but his glove work is very well respected that he could've definitely been useful for the Cubs.
However, the Cubs already Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini as the primary catching tandem, so they might just not feel it is necessary to carry three catchers, especially with the overall lack of depth and offensive struggles.
Kemp, who was designated for assignment last week, is a solid utility player that can fill in at both the outfield and at second base. He was having an OK season with the Astros hitting .227/.308/.417 with a 29-16 strikeout to walk rate and a career best seven home runs. His numbers could possibly be deflated by a .233 BABIP which is well below his career average of .270. Similar to a lot of players this year he is posting career best power numbers, which definitely will play for the Cubs
This is a solid depth move by the Cubs, Kemp is a serviceable defensive player who can provide much better hitting than Albert Almora and Daniel Descalso. He won't be an elite defender, but he is above average and has two outs above average according to Statcast.
The Cubs do save a bit of money with this deal as Kemp is making just $583,600 this year and won't be arbitration eligible until at least 2021.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Thursday, July 25, 2019
Can Pedro Strop turn it around?
One of the more disappointing story lines of the 2019 Cubs has been the fall of Pedro Strop. Thanks to a hamstring injury and a velocity drop that way be related to it the once dominant reliever has been a shell of his former self this year.
His 5.27 ERA in 31 appearances has been by far the worst of his Cubs career. The once incredibly reliable reliver has contributed to several late inning blown leads, including giving up three runs in the eighth inning on Monday against the Giants and a game tying three run home run to Starling Marte in the first game after the All Star Break.
A plausible explanation for these struggles has been his recurring hamstring injuries that may contribute to his significant velocity loss. He first hurt his left hamstring running the bases against the Nationals last September, he then hurt his right hamstring during Spring Training and then was placed on the IL in early May with another right hamstring injury. His velocity has been down a full tick this year with his fastball averaging just 94 MPH compared to 95.4 MPH last season which is a significant drop and could help explain his struggles.
Strop has been absolutely brutal in high leverage situations as batters are hitting .359/.444/.769 in 45 plate appearances, which is just not acceptable in any situation, and especially not when the game is on the line. Though it is fair to point out that his .500 BABIP against is just not sustainable and his 15/6 K?BB is pretty solid and right around his career average.
Obviously Strops struggles are concerning, but a lot of it may just be due to some bad luck. His 3.78 xFIP is significantly better and paints a much better picture of Strop. His strikeout-to-walk rate is the best it's been since 2016 and he still is holding hitters to a .222/.294/.465 line which is decent aside from the high slugging allowed. His left on base percentage of 64 percent is the worst of his career and his home run/fly ball ratio is over double his career average.
His problem is that when batters make contact they are crushing the ball as his 90.4 MPH exit velocity against and his 40 percent hard hit rate are by far his worst in the Statcast era. It's incredibly likely his velocity loss can be tied to this as the slower his pitches are, the easier he will be to square up against.
Ultimately time will tell whether Strop will be able to bounce back. There are still two months left in the regular season and the Cubs are likely to add to their bullpen. But right now Strop should not be trusted in key situations until he begins to return to his old self.
His 5.27 ERA in 31 appearances has been by far the worst of his Cubs career. The once incredibly reliable reliver has contributed to several late inning blown leads, including giving up three runs in the eighth inning on Monday against the Giants and a game tying three run home run to Starling Marte in the first game after the All Star Break.
A plausible explanation for these struggles has been his recurring hamstring injuries that may contribute to his significant velocity loss. He first hurt his left hamstring running the bases against the Nationals last September, he then hurt his right hamstring during Spring Training and then was placed on the IL in early May with another right hamstring injury. His velocity has been down a full tick this year with his fastball averaging just 94 MPH compared to 95.4 MPH last season which is a significant drop and could help explain his struggles.
Strop has been absolutely brutal in high leverage situations as batters are hitting .359/.444/.769 in 45 plate appearances, which is just not acceptable in any situation, and especially not when the game is on the line. Though it is fair to point out that his .500 BABIP against is just not sustainable and his 15/6 K?BB is pretty solid and right around his career average.
Obviously Strops struggles are concerning, but a lot of it may just be due to some bad luck. His 3.78 xFIP is significantly better and paints a much better picture of Strop. His strikeout-to-walk rate is the best it's been since 2016 and he still is holding hitters to a .222/.294/.465 line which is decent aside from the high slugging allowed. His left on base percentage of 64 percent is the worst of his career and his home run/fly ball ratio is over double his career average.
His problem is that when batters make contact they are crushing the ball as his 90.4 MPH exit velocity against and his 40 percent hard hit rate are by far his worst in the Statcast era. It's incredibly likely his velocity loss can be tied to this as the slower his pitches are, the easier he will be to square up against.
Ultimately time will tell whether Strop will be able to bounce back. There are still two months left in the regular season and the Cubs are likely to add to their bullpen. But right now Strop should not be trusted in key situations until he begins to return to his old self.
Monday, July 15, 2019
Cubs acquire Martin Maldonado
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports the Cubs have acquired catcher Martin Maldonado from the Kansas City Royal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports Mike Montgomery is going back to the Royals.
Maldonado is light with the stick as he is hitting just .224/.288/.359 on the year with six home runs and 55 strikeouts to 17 walks, but he creates almost all of his value on defense as he is an elite framer and has a strong arm throwing out 33 percent of would be base stealers.
Devan Fink of Fangraphs tweets that Maldonaldo has saved an estimated 69.4 runs since 2012 from his framing alone which is a skill the Cubs have lacked in the past few seasons.
Obviously the first concern is towards the health of Willson Contreras, he has not played since Saturday after suffering a foot injury. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic tweets that Contreras will be going on the injured list with a strain of the arch muscle on his right foot. He is not expected to be out long, but obviously any injury is concerning.
It's likely that Maldonaldo will take over everyday duties will Contreras is out, his defense should give an immediate boost to a pitching staff that has struggled to get calls on the corners all season.
The tricky part is when Contreras comes back. Victor Caratini has been excellent all season and it seems unlikely the Cubs would send him down. One possible option is to cut Daniel Descalso who has provided absolutely no value to the team this year..
The other side of the deal is losing Mike Montgomery. He had been a crucial part of the bullpen the past few years, including getting the final out of the 2016 World Series, but he has not been effective at all this year and it was probably time to move on and get some value.
He's made 20 appearances this season and has posted a 5.67 ERA (6.21 FIP) in 27 innings. His already low strikeout numbers combined with a career high walk rate is not a good combination and an increased home run rate is just a death sentence for a pitcher. He goes to the Royals where he will get a chance to rebound.
Maldonado is light with the stick as he is hitting just .224/.288/.359 on the year with six home runs and 55 strikeouts to 17 walks, but he creates almost all of his value on defense as he is an elite framer and has a strong arm throwing out 33 percent of would be base stealers.
Devan Fink of Fangraphs tweets that Maldonaldo has saved an estimated 69.4 runs since 2012 from his framing alone which is a skill the Cubs have lacked in the past few seasons.
Obviously the first concern is towards the health of Willson Contreras, he has not played since Saturday after suffering a foot injury. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic tweets that Contreras will be going on the injured list with a strain of the arch muscle on his right foot. He is not expected to be out long, but obviously any injury is concerning.
It's likely that Maldonaldo will take over everyday duties will Contreras is out, his defense should give an immediate boost to a pitching staff that has struggled to get calls on the corners all season.
The tricky part is when Contreras comes back. Victor Caratini has been excellent all season and it seems unlikely the Cubs would send him down. One possible option is to cut Daniel Descalso who has provided absolutely no value to the team this year..
The other side of the deal is losing Mike Montgomery. He had been a crucial part of the bullpen the past few years, including getting the final out of the 2016 World Series, but he has not been effective at all this year and it was probably time to move on and get some value.
He's made 20 appearances this season and has posted a 5.67 ERA (6.21 FIP) in 27 innings. His already low strikeout numbers combined with a career high walk rate is not a good combination and an increased home run rate is just a death sentence for a pitcher. He goes to the Royals where he will get a chance to rebound.
Tuesday, July 9, 2019
Zack Wheeler is a perfect pitching target for the Cubs
A report came out today from Andy Martino linking the Cubs as a possibility for Mets starting pitcher Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler, 29, is a tall, hard throwing right hander with a fastball that has been averaging near 97 MPH could be a real weapon for the Cubs rotation. Despite the high velocity he's had surprisingly good control with a 6.7% walk rate and a 3.82 K/BB ratio this year.
Although the results for Wheeler haven't been as good as last season with a 4.69 ERA, his peripherals are a lot better with a 3.83 xFIP. His left on base percentage (LOB%) is a career low 65.9 percent and indicates he's been dealt a pretty poor hand in the luck department.
Something that has plagued Wheeler this year is a significant increase in the amount of hard contact against him. Last year just 27.1% of the balls in play against him were considered hard contact which ranked in the top four percent in the league, but this year that number has spiked to 34.5 percent.
A decent chunk of that could be attributed to the significant spike in the usage of his sinker, which he has doubled in usage from last year to much worse results. Hitters are averaging .285 off the sinker with an average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH which is a significant regression from last year where hitters averaged .204 and an exit velocity of 81.5 MPH.
He's also dropped the usage of his four seam fastball from 42.3 percent of the time to 27.5 percent of the time despite a .216 batting average against and a .295 slugging percentage this year compared to a .244 average and .342 slugging last year.
The Cubs rotation has been OK, but not really good this season. Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, and Jon Lester have all been great, but Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish have both been big time disappointments for the Cubs. With Cole Hamels potentially still on the shelf for a while with an oblique injury, it's fair to ask whether the Cubs should pursue a starting pitcher.
Obviously the biggest factor to consider is the cost of acquiring Wheeler. If the Mets want Nico Hoerner or Miguel Amaya for a couple month rental than the Cubs should just laugh at the Mets, but if they are able to give up some mid-tier prospects along with being able to fill their bigger needs than this is something they should absolutely pursue.
Wheeler, 29, is a tall, hard throwing right hander with a fastball that has been averaging near 97 MPH could be a real weapon for the Cubs rotation. Despite the high velocity he's had surprisingly good control with a 6.7% walk rate and a 3.82 K/BB ratio this year.
Although the results for Wheeler haven't been as good as last season with a 4.69 ERA, his peripherals are a lot better with a 3.83 xFIP. His left on base percentage (LOB%) is a career low 65.9 percent and indicates he's been dealt a pretty poor hand in the luck department.
Something that has plagued Wheeler this year is a significant increase in the amount of hard contact against him. Last year just 27.1% of the balls in play against him were considered hard contact which ranked in the top four percent in the league, but this year that number has spiked to 34.5 percent.
A decent chunk of that could be attributed to the significant spike in the usage of his sinker, which he has doubled in usage from last year to much worse results. Hitters are averaging .285 off the sinker with an average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH which is a significant regression from last year where hitters averaged .204 and an exit velocity of 81.5 MPH.
He's also dropped the usage of his four seam fastball from 42.3 percent of the time to 27.5 percent of the time despite a .216 batting average against and a .295 slugging percentage this year compared to a .244 average and .342 slugging last year.
The Cubs rotation has been OK, but not really good this season. Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, and Jon Lester have all been great, but Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish have both been big time disappointments for the Cubs. With Cole Hamels potentially still on the shelf for a while with an oblique injury, it's fair to ask whether the Cubs should pursue a starting pitcher.
Obviously the biggest factor to consider is the cost of acquiring Wheeler. If the Mets want Nico Hoerner or Miguel Amaya for a couple month rental than the Cubs should just laugh at the Mets, but if they are able to give up some mid-tier prospects along with being able to fill their bigger needs than this is something they should absolutely pursue.
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