Monday, December 28, 2020

Yu Darvish has been traded

 In a move that will no doubt upset many Cubs fans the Cubs have traded 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish and his personal catcher Victor Caratini to the San Diego Padres in exchange for 27-year old RHP Zach Davies and four other young prospects according to Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic.

Darvish was nothing short of amazing in 2020 finishing as the runner-up to Trevor Bauer for the NL Cy Young award. In 76 innings Darvish posted a 2.01 ERA striking out an impressive 93 while walking just 17. Darvish signed a six-year contract prior to the 2018 season and had become a fan favorite thanks in part to his excellent pitching after a rocky start, but also due to his interactions with fans on social media. As good as he was, he clearly didn't fit the Cubs long-term plans and they felt they could "maximize" value, although clearly the front office and the fans have a different perception of his value.

Headed to the Padres is Victor Caratini as well, he struggled significantly with the bat hitting just .241/.333/.328 in 132 plate appearances showing very little power along with ranking in the 34th percentile for exit velocity and the seventh percentile for expected slugging. He had developed quite a rapport behind the dish with Darvish and with the Cubs depth at catching it's no surprised to see him moved. Caratini did post a 108 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 2019, so it's not like he's been unable to hit at the big league level.

For the Cubs they are getting a nice pitcher back in Zach Davies who posted a 2.73 ERA in 69.1 innings for the Friars in 2020. He's a similarly-molded pitcher to Kyle Hendricks with a fastball that averages only 88 MPH along with good control numbers. He has had consistent success limiting hard contact, but the Cubs only have control over him through this upcoming season and he is projected to earn anywhere between $6.3-$10.6 million according to MLBTR.

The four prospects the Cubs are getting: 17-year old SS Reginald Preciado, 20-year old SS Yeison Santana, 18-year old OF Owen Caissie, and 18-year old OF Ismael Mena are all considered lottery tickers as none of them have a single at-bat above rookie ball and two of them (Caissie and Mena) don't have any sort of professional statistics recorded.

On the surface this looks like an incredibly underwhelming haul for the Cubs as Preciado ranks as the highest prospect traded and he ranked just 11th on MLB.coms Top 30 Padres prospects, but it is worth noting that the Padres system is considered incredibly deep and they have a lot of riches to deal from.

Despite that it is incredibly disappointing that the Cubs are getting just their 11th, 13th, 15th, and 16th prospects. It was assumed from the outset that their top two prospects MacKanzie Gore and CJ Abrams were not part of the deal, but #4 prospect catcher Luis Campusano was rumored to be a part of the deal so it is very disappointing to not see him be a part of the final deal.

It seems like the Cubs are prioritizing quantity over quality in this one, which is only great if it pays off. They are sacrificing their chance to get a much more proven prospect to take a chance on hitting a home run on a lower level guy This also all but confirms the Cubs will likely be going into another long rebuilding stretch as all of these prospects they acquired are years off the big league level and will require a lot of development.


Thursday, December 17, 2020

Cubs sign Jonathan Holder

The Cubs have announced they have signed RHP Jonathan Holder to a non-guaranteed contract that will pay him $750,000 if he makes the big league roster according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. . Holder, 27, has struggled the past two seasons, but has had success in the past.

Holder was non-tendered by the Yankees after posting a 4.98 ERA in 18 appearances while striking out just 14 batters in 21.2 innings pitched compared to 11 walks. He just plain and simply didn't fool anyone as batters hit .281/.356/.449 against him. 

It's worth noting that his numbers are inflated thanks to a dreadful final three appearances of the season. In his first 16 appearances he posted a 2.08 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 17.1 innings pitched compared to eight walks, but in his final three appearances he allowed eight runs in four and a third innings striking out none and walking three while giving up a pair of home runs.

Hitters just plain and simple made more contact against him and stopped chasing pitches out of the zone. Even before his end of season collapse his strikeout numbers were down and walks were up. His zone contact rate jumped from 80 percent to 85.4 percent and his chase percentage dropped from 31.1 percent to 26.1 percent. His velocity was basically the same and he even saw a sharp increase in his groundball rate, so what gives?

Holder struggled in 2019 as well with a 6.31 ERA in 34 appearances and 41.1 innings pitched, but he also posted by far the best strikeout numbers of his career along with keeping his walk numbers in line with his career norms. His struggles can be partly explained by a huge spike in his home run rate and a horrifically unlucky 53.6 left on base percentage.

He does have a history of success in the past as he posted a 3.42 ERA in 97 appearances split between the 2017-18 season for the Yankees with his best trait being his control as he walked just 27 batters in 105.1 innings pitched. 

Overall its a great no-risk move for the Cubs, they're getting a young, first-year arbitration eligible reliever that has had success in the past on a very cheap contract. Now the Cubs will get a chance to look under the hood and see if they can reunlock the potential he's shown in the past.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Where does Jackie Bradley Jr. fit in the Cubs plans?

 A report from Jon Morosi of Fox Sports connected the Chicago Cubs to free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. It feels like the first time in a while the Cubs have been connected to a upper tier free agent, but how much of a fit is he for the Cubs right now?

Bradley, 30, is coming off his best offensive season since 2016 posting a .814 OPS in 55 games and 217 plate appearances he also hit 7 home runs and overall that translated to a 119 wRC+. Bradleys success comes from a notable improvement in his contact rate that saw him make contact in the zone 77.6 of the time compared to 73.8 percent of the time in 2019. His line drive rate of 23.6 percent was still below league average, and he saw a sharp increase in his ground ball rate to the highest of his career. His offensive success seems to be fueled by a career high .343 BABIP that is bound to come down in 2021.

His average exit velocity is on a three year downward trend and he is coming off a three year stretch of a .726, .717,. and .738 OPS. The improvements in his contact rate shouldn't be ignored, but it's not like he was barreling the ball consistently, his hard hit percentage was actually the lowest of his career and his .299 xwOBA suggested that a lot of his success was smoke and mirrors.

Despite the questions on offense, there is zero doubt on his defensive abilities as he is an absolutely elite center fielder with seven outs above average in the shortened season and he peaked at 15 during the 2017 season. He has a ton of range thanks to his speed, and would be am upgrade over Ian Happ, who would most likely move to left field if the Cubs do sign Bradley

He also turns 31 in April of 2021 and has seen a small but slightly noticeable drop in his sprint speed, which is bound to get even worse as he gets older. Considering he plays a position that requires a ton of range and athleticism it's hard to see the Cubs wanting to commit to him on more than a two or three year deal. A short team deal would make sense for the Cubs considering they are in a bit of a transitional period with several core players becoming free agents after both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

Overall it's hard to see the Cubs making a strong push to sign Bradley Jr., unless they can get him on a modestly cheap and short contract. The Cubs do have a need in the outfield, but it's also fair to question whether he can repeat his offensive success. The defense would most likely be as good as ever, but he is also at an age where you start to wonder how long that is going to last.

Thursday, December 10, 2020

Cubs take Gray Fenter in Rule V draft

 Today was the Rule V draft which gives MLB organizations the opportunity to select an unprotected player from a different organization.

The Cubs drafted 24-year old RHP Gray Fenter from the Baltimore Orioles organization, and he is certainly an interesting pick. He has not thrown a pitch above A-ball despite being a seventh round pick in the 2015 draft.

He's pitched quite well at the A-ball level with a 2.90 ERA among 36 appearances (19 starts) and 121 innings. He has shown good stuff striking out 123 and allowing just four home runs, he did walk 56 batters, but he made up for it by allowing just 92 hits. 

If there had been a minor league season in 2020 he likely would've been able to get up to the Double-A level, but no one really knows what sort of progress he has made since the 2019 season. It's a good "why not?" move for the Cubs as they get to take a flier on a young arm who hasn't really gotten a chance to prove himself at the upper levels

In a scouting report for Birdwatcher, Nick Stevens described him as: "That curveball is something else. His big 12-6 curve that works well with a low-90s fastball coupled to produce an effective outing to kick off his 2019 campaign. He needed 63 pitches to get through his first outing, throwing 35 strikes. Of those 35 strikes, 12 were swings and misses (34%). Left-handed hitters went just 2-12 against the right-handed Fenter,"


Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Cubs lose Eugene Emeralds

 After six seasons with the Chicago Cubs organization the Eugene Emeralds are longer affiliated with the Chicago Cubs and will become an affiliate of the San Francisco Giants organization according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.

The Emeralds had been affiliated with the Cubs since the 2015 season and had won the Northwest League title twice in both 2016 and 2018. 

The full statement from the Emeralds:

"The Eugene Emeralds would like to give our sincere gratitude to the Chicago Cubs organization for being an outstanding partner for the past 6 years. The immediate impact the Cubs had on this organization is undeniable. In 2016, in only our second season of affiliation with Chicago, the Emeralds ended a 41-year Northwest League Championship drought posting a final record of 54-22. The success continued in 2017 with another trip to the championship round and again in 2018 where the Emeralds won the Northwest League title. During those past 6 seasons, our fans have witnessed future and current Major League Baseball stars like Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Adbert Alzolay, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Adbert Alzolay and Chase Strumpf start their careers right here in Eugene. We can’t imagine there being a better era to have partnered with the Cubs as they not only ended our championship drought but also experienced their historic World Series Championship in 2016.

From past baseball legends like Bob Boone, Greg Lizinski, Tom Gordon, Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt to the hundreds of recent Emerald alumi, Eugene, Oregon has been a proving ground for baseball. To say we are excited for the next chapter of Ems Baseball is putting it mildly. We are absolutely thrilled to have baseball back in 2021 and cannot wait to showcase our award-winning gameday experience for our fans at PK Park next year."

In other Cubs affiliate news they have extended an invitation to the Iowa Cubs, Tennessee Smokies, Myrtle Beach Pelicans, and South Bend Cubs to remain with the organization, all of these offers are expected to be accepted. Notably, the Pelicans and Cubs will switch levels with the Pelicans becoming a Low-A team and the Cubs becoming a High-A team.

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Cubs hire Willie Harris as third base coach

 With Will Venable departing for the Boston Red Sox the Cubs had a vacancy for their third base coach position, and according to Buster Olney of ESPN they are hiring former MLB utilityman Willie Harris to fill that role.

Harris, 42, spent 12 seasons split between seven teams hitting .238/.327/.346 in 2816 career plate appearances. He was quite useful in the fact that he was a very versatile defensively getting significant playing time in both the infield and outfield. He was respectable on the basepaths as well going 107-147 on steal attempts (a 73 percent success rate).

After his playing career he started his minor league coaching career for the Chicago White Sox organization in 2017 as the manager of the Winston-Salem Dash. After the season concluded he moved to the San Francisco Giants organization and spent two years as the manager for the Double-A Richmond Flying Squirrels. 

After 2019 he moved to the Cincinnati Reds as their new base running and outfield coordinator, and now will take over a position that has been a bit of a revolving door being the third different coach since the conclusion of the 2017 season when Gary Jones departed.

Thursday, December 3, 2020

Report: Len Kasper leaving Cubs

 This will come as a shock to many, but Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that the long time TV voice of the Cubs Len Kasper will depart the Cubs organization to become the new radio play-by-play announcer for the Chicago White Sox.

Kasper joined the Cubs from the Florida Marlins organization after the 2004 season as the successor to Chip Caray and he has been in that role ever since. He saw the peak of the Ramirez-Soriano-Lee era where they won back-to-back division crowns, he saw the Theo Epstein era play out from start to finish, and was the TV voice of the 2016 team that won the World Series.

Losing Kasper is a momental blow to the organization, he is by far one of the best play-by-play broadcasters in baseball and has basically become synonymous with the Cubs organization. His use of analytics was great for the hardcore fans and helped increase the understanding of more casual fans.


Here are some of his highlights throughout the years:

Aramis Ramirez walk-off

Fukudome Opening Day Home Run

Carlos Zambrano completes his no-hitter

Kris Bryant walks off the Rockies

Three non-tendered players the Cubs should pursue

 Yesterday was the deadline to tender a contract to arbitration eligible players which means we saw 56 new players become free agents. Among those is several players that could be of value to the Cubs in 2021.

1. Archie Bradley, RHP

The veteran reliever was non-tendered despite posting a 2.95 ERA (3.67 xFIP) in 16 appearances and 18.1 innings pitched, he did make $4 million in 2020 and was due for a raise so it's possible the Reds just felt like he wouldn't have been worth the salary. It's worth nothing he posted his lowest strikeout rate since 2016 striking out 24.7 percent of hitters, but he also posted the best walk rate of his career walking just 4.1 percent of hitters. One concern is that he allowed an obscenely high line drive rate in 2020, with 35.3 percent of batted balls being considered line drives, and combined with a sharp drop in his groundball rate  could suggest bad results in the future if the trend continues.

He did see a drop in his velocity as his fastball went from averaging 95.5 MPH in 2019 to 94.2 in 2020, but despite that is was actually a more effective with hitters slugging .325 with a .275 wOBA average compared to .459 and .349 respectively. The concern would lie in his curveball which went from 82.1 MPH to 80 MPH on the dot and saw some concerning results. The swing-and-miss rate in the pitch was almost halved which means hitters were making contact which the pitch at a much higher rate, it was still an effective pitch as hitters posted a .238 wOBA average, but that is something to pay attention to.

Just 28 he is likely to command a lot of interest in the free agent market, he has been one of the more effective relievers over the past few years with a 2.95 ERA in 152 ERA+ in 221 games since the start of the 2017 season. I'm not sure if the Cubs are going to be willing to pay the salary he will likely command, but he would go a long way towards providing some stability towards the back of the pen.

2. Eddie Rosario, OF

The non-tender of Kyle Schwarber created a hole in the Cubs outfield, and it's one that could potentially be filled by the Twins cast-off. The 29-year old outfielder hit .257/.316/.476 in 231 plate appearances for the Twins. He didn't show much in the hit tool or plate discipline department, but he did show very good power that would somewhat make up for the absence of Schwarber.

Rosario, however, is a butcher in the field so he would likely be reduced to a designated hitter if that rule sticks in the National League in 2021 (which seems unlikely). In 2019 he was worth -18 outs above average in left field, which could be an anomaly considering he posted -2 in 2018 and was a positive +2 in 2017, in the small sample size of 2020 he was worth -1, so obviously he isn't going to win any Gold Gloves, but it's also possible that 2019 was just a fluke and he realistically isn't that bad.

He's would not fully be able to replace the production of Schwarber, especially since his career walk rate is a Javy Baez-esque 4.7 percent, but his ability to drive the ball makes him potentially a very solid addition to a Cubs lineup that ranked just 9th in home runs and just lost one of their best sluggers.

3. Carlos Rodon, LHP

The former 3rd overall pick in 2014 has struggled to establish himself for the White Sox, and it's possible a change of scenery or even a move to the bullpen could work wonders for the southpaw.

Rodon has struggled with arm injuries having had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and he missed over a month in 2020 with a shoulder issue. When he was on the mound he wasn't very effective, in 11 appearances (9 starts) combined from 2019-20 he posted an uninspiring 5.74 ERA allowing 27 earned runs in 42.1 innings pitched, he did show good strikeout numbers with 52 punchouts and his 3.85 FIP suggests that maybe he was a little unfortunate in his results.

His fastball velocity has dipped significantly from it's peak of 94.2 MPH in 2016 to just 92.8 MPH in 2020, it's possible that it's just because he's working his way back from injury, or whether the injuries have impacted his velocity that much. He's just a three pitcher pitcher with a four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup combo, he has thrown a sinker in the past but threw in just three times in 2019 and not once in 2020. If the velocity drop is permanent he could be effective in the bullpen as he might be able to get a slight bump in velocity since he won't be expected to throw 90+ pitches an appearance.

He has had past success as a big league starter, and we all know the Cubs need pitching depth. He isn't likely to be very expensive due to his struggled the past two seasons combined with questions about his health and whether his arm will be able to stand the rigors of a full big league season


Wednesday, December 2, 2020

Cubs non-tender Kyle Schwarber among others

 Although it had been speculated, it became a reality tonight as the Cubs announced  their tender decisions, and included in the non-tenders is veteran outfielder Kyle Schwarber.

Schwarber struggled in 2020 hitting .188/.308/.393 in 224 plate appearances playing in 59 of the Cubs 60 games while smacking 11 home runs. While it wasn't an ideal stat line, Schwarber was coming off of a big 2019 season that saw him post a 120 wRC+ and smack a career-high 38 home runs. The former first round pick has smashed 121 home runs over 2108 plate appearances in the big leagues.

Although he has certainly had his issues at the big league level Schwarber is a very capable big league bat and has developed into a serviceable defender in left field so it's frustrating to see him non-tendered when he was projected to earn somewhere between $7-$9 million in his final year of arbitration and paints an even dimmer look at their financial situation.

A reunion is certainly possible, but Schwarber is likely to attract a lot of attention due to his skillset and him being just 27-years old. It's hard to tell how much to read into his 2020 struggles due to the uniqueness of the season, but it's worth noting that his average exit velocity was the second highest of his career and ranked in the top five percent of all of baseball. 

His struggles seemed to be tied into a sharp increase in his ground ball rate which spiked from 38.8 percent to 51.2 percent in 2020. If Schwarber wants to succeed he's got to be able to hit the ball in the air at a much higher clip as his power is his most valuable asset.

Schwarber also leaves a legacy of being one of the best hitters in Cubs postseason history. In 24 games and 79 plate appearances he hit .288/.405/.576 with six home runs which is tied with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo for first all time. He had some notable moments including his two-run shot in the Wild Card game and his memorable scoreboard home run against the Cardinals in 2015. But nothing will be as impressive as what he did in 2016.

On April 7th in an early season matchup against the Diamondbacks Schwarber collided with Dexter Fowler tearing his ACL and LCL and was declared out for the remainder of the season. But after a long rehab process he was cleared to take at-bats for the Cubs Arizona Fall League team. So on October 22nd Schwarber was taking at bats in preparation for a potential World Series comeback as the Cubs clinched their first pennant in 71 years in Chicago.

When the World Series roster was named Schwarber was listed and one of the more unbelievable sports injury comebacks was complete. Schwarber was the designated hitter for the road games that series appearing in five games and going an impressive 7-17 driving in two runs and scoring two. His single to open up the tenth inning of Game Seven set up the go ahead run for the Cubs as they ended a 108-year title drought.

Elsewhere former 2012 first round pick Albert Almora Jr. was also non-tendered. He was the first draft pick of the Theo Epstein era and at one point ranked as the #18 prospect by Baseball Prospectus, but he has never been able to fully put it together at the big league level. In 489 games he has slashed .271/.308/.398 while not being the most impressive center fields with below average speed for a center fielder. His numbers especially cratered the past two seasons where he has hit .230/.270/.366 in 397 plate appearances. He just didn't have the plate discipline to last at the big league level, and when he did hit he wasn't hitting the ball hard enough to do a lot of damage. He will also have a special place in Cubs fans hearts as he pinch-ran for Schwarber in Game Seven and scored the go-ahead run after tagging from first on a fly ball out. He certainly has potential to contribute as a reserve big league outfielder, but it has become increasingly clear it wasn't going to happen with the Cubs.

Mid-season acquisition Jose Martinez was also non-tendered. The Cubs had hoped he would be a potential lefty masher off the bench, but instead he went 0-21 with the Cubs and that combined with his very poor defense made his non-tender a non-surprise.

It was a slight surprise to see Cubs MVP-vote getter Ryan Tepera non-tendered as he was fairly solid for the Cubs posting a 3.92 ERA in 21 appearances for the club. He struck out an impressive 31 in 20.2 innings pitched and while he walked 12 he was able to cancel that out by being hard to square up allowing just 17 hits and two home runs. He seemed to be one of the more reliable members of the Cubs bullpen at times so it's possible a reunion is certainly in the cards.

The Cubs also announced they avoided arbitration with Colin Rea, Dan Winkler, and Kyle Ryan while they tendered a contract to Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Victor Caratini, and Ian Happ.

Cubs claim Robert Stock off waivers

 The Cubs made a waiver claim today acquiring 31-year old RHP Robert Stock off waivers from the Boston Red Sox according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN.

Stock made 10 appearances for the Red Sox in the abbreviated season allowing seven earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched. He struggled at preventing baserunners allowing 16 hits while walking 10. Stock seemed to be a victim of some bad luck as hitters had a .421 BABIP against him last year which combined with a 52.6 groundball rate could suggest he is due for some positive regression.

One big positive is that he is a hard thrower with a fastball that averaged 96.8 MPH and ranked in the 94th percentile of all big league pitchers. He works off the fastball with a slider that he threw 22.9 percent of the time and a changeup that he threw 82.2 percent of the time. He seemed to have a problem confusing hitters as they chased his pitches just 18 percent of the time and the both swung and made contact at pitches in the zone above the big league average, which combined with his below average walk rate is a recipe for disaster.

Stock has made 52 appearances as part of three big league seasons posting a 4.24 ERA in 63.2 innings pitched while striking out 67 and walking 31.The former 2009 2nd round pick by the Cardinals bounced around several organizations before finally making the big leagues with the Padres in 2018, he bounced on waivers to the Phillies and then finally landed with the Red Sox in July of this year.

It's unlikely the Cubs will be major players in free agency so moves like this are going to be common. The Cubs have had some success with reclamation projects over the year and Stock is a solid depth addition to the bullpen and he might be able to find more success with a better defense behind him.


Thursday, November 19, 2020

Cubs continue to indicate a "heavy restart"

 As the 2020 offseason continues the rumors continue to linger about the Cubs trying to blow things up, and with the resignation of Theo Epstein on Tuesday, it only seems to lend credence to those rumors. 

Buster Olney of ESPN reported on Sunday that "Cubs are signaling there will be significant turnover on the roster, with a willingness to move almost any veteran" and last night Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggested that "a hard restart could be in order" according to an unnamed National League executive.

The question is who do the Cubs trade, and can they get good value out of them?

Kris Bryant is the first name that'll immediately come to mind, the soon-to-be 29-year old was awful to say the least in 2020. The former NL MVP hit just .209/.293/.351 with five home runs in 34 games and 147 plate appearances while battling finger, oblique, and wrist injuries. Most concerning, he saw his strikeout rate climb to the highest rate since his rookie year, while his walk rate plummeted to a career low 8.2 percent.

Bryant is clearly a very good player when he is healthy, as he hit 30+ home runs and had a 130+ wRC+ as recently as 2019, but he has also missed time in each of the past three seasons due to various injuries, and his numbers dip when he is battling any sort of ailment.

It's hard to see the Cubs trading Bryant this offseason unless they are seriously overwhelmed by an offer, his trade value is likely at an all-time low and other teams will want to see if he can bounce back in 2021. He is a free agent after the 2021 season so his value is even further deflated by the fact that he is potentially just a rental.

Javier Baez is another possibility, but he is in a similar situation to Bryant when you consider he's also a free agent after next season. He had an absolutely atrocious 2020, but he doesn't have the injury excuse to fall back on. Baez looked legitimately lost at the plate at times in 2020 as his .238 on-base percentage was the worst of all qualified players. The Cubs are likely in a similar position with Baez where they could hold on to him and see if he bounces back and builds some trade value.

Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish are also possibilities, but it would likely come with the Cubs having to eat a portion of their salaries in order of unload their contracts. It's hard to see either of these guys going as the Cubs are unlikely to receive equal value for either of them, although Darvish would certainly fetch much more than Heyward thanks to finishing 2nd in Cy Young voting.

One player it is hard to see the Cubs trading is Anthony Rizzo, as he is considered the heart and soul of this team, and has been a consistent force for the team for almost 10 years. He has some question marks long-term thanks to his back issues the past few seasons, but it would be hard to see him in any uniform other than the Cubs.

It is a high possibility that Kyle Schwarber is traded, he's consistently been one of the Cubs best power threats over the past few years, but he's also struggled to hit for a consistent average and has a skill set that is fairly replaceable. 

Although I feel it is unlikely, trading Willson Contreras is also a possibility. Top catching prospect Miguel Amaya is getting closer to being big league ready and the Cubs have some intriguing prospects at the lower level as well. Contreras posted a 109 wRC+ in 2020 along with completely turning around his framing metrics, it's highly possible he has the highest trade value of anyone on the club, but Contreras provides a ton of value to the Cubs now that might be hard to let go off.

I do not envy the position Jed Hoyer is in, he will have to make some very tough decisions for the organization that may hurt now, but will benefit the long-term future of the organization.


Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Theo Epstein has resigned

 You could see the writing on the wall for a while, but today the Chicago Cubs announced that Theo Epstein will step down as President of Baseball Operations on November 20th, and General Manager Jed Hoyer will take his position.

You could argue that the Cubs could've won more during his tenure, but ultimately they ended the longest championship drought in the history of professional sports and built an impressive core.

Obviously this will have major ramifications for the Cubs both on and off the field, but it is way too early to speculate what this will lead to for the team. Epstein and Cubs owner Tom Ricketts are scheduled to meet with the media later today.

Here is the full statement from the Cubs: 

"The Chicago Cubs today announced that Theo Epstein will step down from his role as President of Baseball Operations effective November 20 and depart the organization after nine seasons. Jed Hoyer, who joined the club in November 2011 as Executive Vice President/General Manager, will be named President of Baseball Operations.

“Theo and I have been communicating about this possible move for a couple of years, and we have been working together toward a transition that makes sense for the Cubs and for him,” said Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts. “The timing is right for a number of reasons, and most importantly we are both thrilled that Jed is the person succeeding Theo. We have had our most successful period in over a century under Theo’s leadership, and we are grateful for everything he has given to this organization and this city. Jed has been a big part of that success, too, and offers a combination of continuity and a fresh perspective that will serve us well as we look forward to another period of sustained success.”

“For the rest of my life, I will cherish having been part of the great Chicago Cubs organization during this historic period,” said Epstein. “All of the things that have made this experience so special — the fans, the players, the managers and coaches, ownership, my front office colleagues, the uniqueness of the Wrigley experience, the history — make it so tough to leave the Cubs. But I believe this is the right decision for me even if it’s a difficult one. And now is the right time rather than a year from now. The organization faces a number of decisions this winter that carry long-term consequences; those types of decisions are best made by someone who will be here for a long period rather than just one more year. Jed has earned this opportunity and is absolutely the right person to take over this baseball operation at such an important time.

“I am grateful to everyone with the Cubs: to the Ricketts family for this opportunity as well as for their loyalty; to the fans for their support and the depth of their emotional connection with the team; and to the players, coaches, staff and my front office colleagues for their friendship, excellence and dedication to helping us accomplish our initial goals of regular October baseball and a World Championship.”

“I have been so fortunate to work alongside Theo for 17 of the last 19 years,” said Hoyer. “I could not have had a better mentor or a more loyal and trusted friend. He has already changed two storied franchises with his passion, creativity, intellect and leadership. I have no question that the next chapters in his career will be equally impressive and impactful.

“I am thankful to the Ricketts family for bestowing me with the opportunity to lead the Cubs baseball operation.  For the last nine years, I have worked alongside so many dedicated colleagues with one goal in mind — to build a team and an organization that makes Cubs fans proud and provides them with memories of a lifetime. I am thrilled that this leadership transition will provide continuity to a department that has had tremendous successes over the past six seasons. Ultimately, this transition is about the future, and I look forward to constantly pushing the Cubs to evolve and grow to ensure that there is sustained success at Wrigley Field.”

After rebuilding seasons in 2012-14, Epstein’s Cubs have amassed 505 regular season victories since 2015, second-most in the N.L. and third-most in the majors behind only the Dodgers (528) and Astros (510). The Cubs are one of just four clubs to make at least five postseason appearances in the last six seasons, joining the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros.

Epstein, 46, joined the Cubs on October 25, 2011, and led the effort to restructure the Cubs’ Baseball Operations department. He acquired talent through trades (Anthony Rizzo, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Dexter Fowler), drafts (Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber) and free agency (Jon Lester, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward) that led to the 2016 World Series victory, ending the organization’s 108-year title drought. All but two of the 25 players on the Cubs 2016 World Series-winning roster were acquired under Epstein’s watch, including 13 via trade.

Epstein, who prior to joining Chicago led Boston to World Series titles in 2004 and 2007, departs the organization as one of just five executives all-time to lead multiple organizations to World Series titles. He is just the fourth to do so in both leagues, joining Hall of Famers Pat Gillick and John Schuerholz as well as Dave Dombrowski. Epstein, who was 30 during the 2004 World Series, remains the youngest general manager in baseball history to win a championship.

Hoyer, 46, enters his 20th season in baseball operations and his 10th with the Cubs. He has been involved in a leadership role in every aspect of the Cubs’ Baseball Operations department under Epstein, helping the organization revamp its amateur and professional scouting departments while creating and expanding the research and development analytics group. Starting in 2015 following the team’s rebuild, Cubs pitching has ranked second in the majors with a .235 opponent batting average and .690 opponent OPS while the team’s 3.66 ERA ranks third in that span. Cubs hitters in the last six seasons lead the N.L. and rank second in the majors with a .332 on-base percentage while their .755 OPS ranks fourth in the N.L.

Prior to joining the Cubs, Hoyer served as general manager of the Padres for the 2010-11 seasons, and in 2010 guided the club to its fourth 90-win campaign in the franchise’s 42-year history despite featuring the lowest payroll in baseball. At the 2010 All-Star break, he acquired six-time All-Star and 2002 A.L. MVP Miguel Tejada along with outfielder Ryan Ludwick. The 2010 squad had a 15-win improvement over the 2009 Padres club (75-87), the largest win improvement among any team in the majors that season.

Hoyer began his major league career with the Red Sox from 2002-09 and was actively involved in player development, major league scouting, quantitative analysis and advance scouting. He was a member of Epstein’s baseball operations department that won a pair of World Championships (2004 and 2007), advanced to four League Championship Series (2003, 2004, 2007 and 2008) and won 95 or more games six different seasons.

A native of Plymouth, N.H., Hoyer is a graduate of Wesleyan University, where he helped lead the Cardinals to the championship game of the NCAA Division III World Series in 1994 as a pitcher and shortstop.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

The Javy Baez long-term concern

 Despite winning the division the 2020 Cubs season was an overall disappointment. Several key players had down seasons and the organization finds itself in a difficult position on where to go for the 2021 season. 

One of the more concerning slumps of the 2020 season was Javier Baez who had by far his worst season in the big leagues since his 52 game debut in 2014. In 59 games and 235 plate appearances Baez hit just .203/.238/.360 with just eight home runs and walking only seven times while striking out 75. He looked completely lost at the plate at times and pitchers took full advantage of that.

His batted ball data suggests he just wasn't making as loud contact as he usually does as his 89.4 MPH average exit velocity was the lowest since 2017, and his career high pop up rate of 8.7 percent came with a sacrifice to his line drive and fly ball rate. Most concerning, he struggled to drive the ball at the top of the zone with a 84.1 MPH average exit velocity in the top-third of the zone compared to 98.2 in 2019 and 95.8 in his MVP runner-up campaign in 2018.

Another big concern with Baez is his swing-and-miss problems. He actually posted the lowest chase rate since his rookie year, but when he did chase he made contact just 50 percent of the time which is well below the league average of 59 percent. Despite chasing less he posted the worst whiff rate of his career swinging and missing 38 percent of the time, well above the league average of 24 percent and continues a three year trend of that rate going up for him. It can suggest two things, both are not good. 1. He could be starting to lose some bat speed which would be a serious long term concern or 2. He was basically just guessing at the plate this year which already adds to the concern about his plate discipline.

In September, Baez claimed that the lack of in-game video affected his ability to make adjustments saying "It sucks. I make my adjustments during the game. I watch my swing, I watch where the ball was, where contact was. I'm really mad we don't have it," In-game video was taken away thanks to the Houston Astros cheating to win a World Series, and it's fair to wonder how much of an effect it had on hitters. The ability to look at the video immediately after an at bat had to have been incredibly helpful to hitters in making adjustments on the fly.

Defensively Baez was excellent as usual, he finally captured his first Gold Glove posting four outs above average and making 62 plays considered out of his zone. One thing that is worth paying attention to is his sprint speed, he went from sprinting to 28.6 feet per second in 2019 to 27.9 in 2020. It's a small drop, but as Baez is entering his age 28 season he is slowly getting to the point where his athleticism will start to decline and he will have to rely a lot more on baseball IQ and instinct to make plays.

The problem for the Cubs is that Baez has one more year left of arbitration eligibility before he is a free agent and the team will be forced to make a decision on what to do with him. Baez is beloved by fans thanks to his flashy plays and when he is actually hitting he is one of the more explosive players in the leagues, but it is fair to question whether his lack of plate discipline will be exploited more than it already is especially once his bat speed begins to decline.

2021 will be a crucial year for Baez. He will have to bounce back in a big way in order to earn a big contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects Baez to earn anywhere between $10-$11.9 million in 2021. Baez is not a non-tender candidate due to his previous success and the fact that 2020 was in general just a funky year for everyone, but beyond 2021 remains a question mark due to his struggles and the uncertainties surrounding the Cubs financial situation.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Breaking down the Marlins

 Tomorrow the Cubs will play their first playoff game since the 2018 National League Wild Card game. Their opponent in the three-game Wild Card series will be the Miami Marlins who are making their first playoff appearances since 2003 as the Florida Marlins (and we all know how that turned out for the Cubs). But who are these Marlins?

The Marlins finished 31-29 making the playoffs thanks to the fact that they finished second in the NL East. They were very lucky to reach that record as they scored 263 runs while allowing 304 to finish with a Pythagorean record of 26-34, but this is baseball and the playoffs are a crapshoot so don't take anything for granted.

By far the strength of the Marlins is their starting pitching. They've got an extremely formidable 1-2-3 led by 24-year old Pablo Lopez, 24-year old Sandy Alcantara, and 21-year old Sixto Sanchez. All three of them throw fastballs in the mid-90s, while not walking a ton of hitters, and that combination has the potential to give the Cubs hitters fits due to their contact deficiency.

On the flip side the bullpen for the Marlins is a glaring weakness, they finished with the third worst bullpen ERA in the National League at 5.50 and the 5.39 overall FIP doesn't paint a better picture either. They finished with the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball as they struck out just 18.1 percent of hitters while walking 11.4 percent which was the ninth highest rate in baseball.

They did have some nice individual seasons though as James Hoyt posted a 1.23 ERA (3.19 FIP) in 24 appearances along with 20 strikeouts to eight walks. Former Cub Brandon Kintzler had a 2.22 ERA in 24 appearances, but his 5.00 FIP along with a slightly high home run rate along with very little strikeouts suggest that he is due for some regression. Their other reliable guy is Brad Boxberger who had an ERA of exactly 3 in 23 appearances, but is slightly home run prone as he allowed three in 18 innings pitched along with eight walks.

On offense they are primarily carried by Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar, and Brian Anderson. They did pick up Starling Marte at the trade deadline, but he has struggled in Miami with a .286 OBP and 22-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112 plate appearances.

Rojas, 31, had a breakout year in 2020 posting a .304/.392/.496 line in 143 plate appearances along with four home runs and an impressive 18-16 strikeout to walk rate. He posted by far the highest ISO of his career beating out his previous career high by nearly 100 points. It doesn't even seem to be that much luck either as his .330 BABIP is higher than his .294 average, but isn't an absurd number. It just seems like he increased his launch angle and the results show it.

Although Aguilar is no longer the All-Star player he once was in 2018, he is still someone to be careful with. He hit eight home runs along with a .809 OPS and a .180 ISO so he's definitely no slouch at the dish. He's a very disciplined hitter and doesn't strike out much so the Cubs will have to try and keep the ball down and hope they don't leave something up in the zone that can be elevated.

At the hot corner Anderson has been one of the very few consistently reliable hitters for the Marlins over the past few years and that continued in 2020 as he posted a .255/.345/.465 line in 229 plate appearances along with a team leading 11 home runs. Anderson, however, can be exploited as he does strike out at a near 30 percent clip and his expected batting average of .228 along with a deflated exit velocity suggest he may not have been as good as his raw stats.

Elsewhere the Marlins have Matt Joyce, who is a very disciplined hitter, but doesn't hit for much power. It's the same story with Jon Berti who posted an impressive .388 OBP, but is dragged down by his .350 slugging. Garrett Cooper had a very nice season with a .283/.353/.500 line as the DH, but it came in just 133 plate appearances.

The biggest weak link in their starting lineup is likely catcher Jorge Alfaro, who posted a .226/.280/.344 line and isn't even a highly regarded defensive catcher. Their other option behind the dish is Chad Wallach who posted better pitch framing numbers, but might be an even worse hitter than Alfaro.

The Marlins are definitely a team not to be taken lightly, but they do have some weaknesses that can be exploited. Their biggest threat to the Cubs is their starting pitching, but if the Cubs can work at bats early and drive up the pitch count than they can get to the bullpen quickly where they have a much better chance to feast.

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Billy Hamilton added to roster, Jose Martinez optioned

 In order to make room for the recently claimed OF Billy Hamilton the Cubs have optioned OF Jose Martinez to the South Bend site. Martinez was only recently acquired in a trade with the Rays at the trade deadline.

Martinez had really struggled early with the Cubs going 0-14 with a walk and three strikeouts. Part of his struggles is a sharp increase in his ground ball rate, along with a career worst line drive rate, which means he is getting on top of the ball and not making much solid contact. Considering the offense has been struggling and he needs to be able to drive the ball to be valuable due to his...limited defensive skills and he has not been doing that.

Meanwhile, Hamilton can provide a huge spark off the bench thanks to his defense and base running ability. He isn't much of a hitter at all with a career .295 on-base percentage and a .083 ISO, but he can wreak havoc on the base paths with 302 career stolen bases along with a 81.8 percent success rate. His defense is phenomenal too as he had already saved two runs in 62.2 innings in center field and has saved 75 in 6464.1 innings throughout his career along with throwing out 57 base runners.

Monday, September 7, 2020

Cubs make roster moves

The Cubs made several roster moves prior to Mondays game against the Cardinals, trying to give a slumping team a jolt.

Speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton has been claimed off of waivers from the New York Mets. Hamilton, 29, has 302 career stolen bases in 826 big league games throughout this year. He has been horrible at the dish throughout his career with a .241/.295/.324 line over his career, but he can be extremely valuable as a pinch runner and is considered an excellent defender in center field as well. He's gone just 1-22 this year, but he can definitely be a weapon for the Cubs.

They also added infielder Ildemaro Vargas to the big league roster. Vargas was claimed off waivers from the Minnesota Twins on Saturday. Vargas has hit just .190/.222/.262 in 45 plate appearances split between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Twins this year. He was a solid defender at second base last year, but he doesn't seem to be much more than an organizational piece.

The Cubs also DFA'd left handed reliever Matt Dermody. He pitched a clean inning against the Cardinals on Saturday showing a 94 MPH fastball, but the Cubs needed the roster spot and clearly felt like he was expendable.

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Cubs make flurry of roster moves

 Prior to the start of tonights three game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates the Cubs made a bunch of roster moves to accommodate for four trades and two players activated from the injured list.

In total the Cubs added Jose Martinez, Kris Bryant, Steven Souza Jr, and Cameron Maybin to the active roster. To make room for them the Cubs have optioned Albert Almora Jr, Tyler Chatwood is on the injured list with a right forearm strain, and Casey Sadler has been designated for assignment. Andrew Chafin remains on the injured list

It's a really frustrating turn for Almora who just hasn't turned into the player the Cubs have hoped he could be. In 34 plate appearances he is hitting .167/.265/.200 along with nine strikeouts and one extra base hit. His approach at the plate just hasn't shown any growth.  His 57.1 percent ground ball rate is way too high and his 85.3 MPH average exit velocity didn't paint any sort of positive picture for the future. Ultimately his defense hasn't been good enough to make up for his complete lack of offense and his speed isn't even good enough that he can be an effective pinch runner. It's possible Almora is a really strong non-tender candidate this offseason.

Chatwood was pulled from his start Sunday against the Reds after calling for the trainer when he spiked a pitch to Joey Votto. Although not much is known about the severity of the injury if this turns out to the last start of Chatwoods time with the Cubs it would be an incredibly disappointing finish. He showed promise at time this year especially in his first two starts, but his last three starts saw a complete regression in his command and ability to miss bats. Overall he has a 5.30 ERA (3.29 FIP) in 18.2 innings along with 25 strikeouts and nine walks.

Sadler was an offseason acquisition from the Dodgers and just hasn't been able to put it all together. In nine and a third innings pitched he has posted a 5.79 ERA giving up six earned runs thanks to two home runs and eight walks surrendered. He only threw 40.6 percent of his pitches in the zone, and when he allowed contact it was hit hard with a 30.8 percent line drive rate.

Monday, August 31, 2020

Cubs DFA Hernan Perez and Ian Miller

 With the acquisition of Andrew Chafin, Josh Osich, and Cameron Maybin today the Cubs had to do some 60-man roster managing to fit them on the roster, and they did just that by designating utility infielder Hernan Perez and outfielder Ian Miller for assignment.

Perez, signed to a minor league deal in December and appeared in just three games for the Cubs going 1-6 with two strikeouts. Perez never really stood out at anything with the Cubs, and his spot is easily replaceable.

It's a bit of a surprise to see Miller DFA'd, but his only real asset to the Cubs was his speed and defense and the Cubs already have a lot of outfield depth and just added two more pieces that can contribute right now.

Perez is ultimately replaceable, but it would be nice if they are able to stash Miller. His speed and defense could be a real weapon for the Cubs if needed in a pinch, even if his bat isn't good.

Cubs acquire Cameron Maybin

 In a last minute deal before the deadline the Chicago Cubs have acquired righty outfielder Cameron Maybin from the Detroit Tigers according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Maybin has made 45 plate appearances for the Tigers this season hitting .244/.311/.415 with a home run and four doubles. The 33-year old saw a bit of a career resurgence last season posting a .858 OPS and 127 OPS+ in 269 plate appearances for the Yankees.

Although Maybin is a right handed batter he is actually a reverse platoon guy as he has posted a .714 OPS against same handed pitchers, compared to .670 against lefties throughout his career. He is a roughly league average defensive outfielder. with a DRS of -1 in 96 innings in right field.

Despite that, he is definitely a significant upgrade over Albert Almora Jr, who has become completely unplayable with the bat thanks to his very high ground ball rate and inability to hit the ball hard.

Update: In return the Cubs are sending 25-year old shortstop Zack Short to the Tigers. Short made it up to AAA in 2019 and managed to post a .338 OBP in 160 plate appearances. In .371 minor league games he has hit .241/.377/.405 in 1588 plate appearances. He shows decent pop for his size along with good plate discipline, but he profiles as more of an organization depth guy.

Cubs trade for Josh Osich

 Just 30 minutes after acquiring Andrew Chafin from the Arizona Diamondbacks the Chicago Cubs have acquired another lefty reliever in Josh Osich from the Boston Red Sox. According to Jon Heyman the Cubs will be sending a player to be named later for Osich.

Osich, 32 in three days, has really struggled in 2020. He has posted a 5.74 ERA in 13 appearances and 15.2 innings pitched. He has given up an obscene six home runs while striking out 20 and walking five. Osich has been fairly effective against lefties as they have hit .231/.286/.462 in 28 plate appearances.

The lefty primarily relies on an 87 MPH cutter that he has thrown 47.6 percent of the time in 2020. Hitters have batter .229 off the pitch, but five of their hits off of it have been home runs.  It's worth noting that the velocity has dropped over two MPH from where the pitch was in 2019, and that could be a reason for the amount of slugging off the pitch. 

Osich is a guy that should have his exposure to right handed hitters to a minimum. He has held lefties to a .665 OPS throughout his career, but righties have destroyed him to the tune of a .892 OPS along with a significant decline in both his strikeout and walks numbers.

Overall it's a fairly disappointing deadline for the Cubs, but that was to be expected. Although they are in first place in their division, they ultimately face a very challenging path to the World Series as they would have to get through the Dodgers just to reach the Fall Classic.

Cubs working on acquiring Andrew Chafin

 The Cubs went into the trade deadline with needs for a lefty-masher and a lefty reliever. On Sunday they acquired the lefty-masher in Jose Martinez, and now it appears they could be landing the lefty reliever in Andrew Chafin. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post the Cubs are working on acquiring the reliever.

Chafin has appeared in 11 games in the 2019 season allowing six runs over six and two-thirds innings pitched, he has flashed good stuff with 10 strikeouts, but four walks and nine hits allowed have taken away from the good strikeout numbers. Chafin has been on the injured list since August 19 with a left finger sprain.

Although his numbers this year are rough, he had been a very good reliever for the Diamondbacks in years past with a 3.46 ERA in 225 appearances from 2017-19. Most notably he struck out 182 while walking 64 in 153.2 innings pitched.

He has traditionally been much better against lefties as they have hit just .230/.307/.310 in 541 plate appearances over his career. He is a nice addition to Kyle Ryan and the bullpen could be getting an even bigger boost when Brad Wieck comes back.

Chafin has significantly increased his four-seam fastball usage this season to very poor results as opposing batters have slugged .571 with an average exit velocity of 96 MPH. This came at the expense of his slider which had been his best pitch holding hitters to a .286 slugging percentage this year and .294 the year before.

The return of this deal is currently unknown, and frankly it's a slightly confusing deal for the Cubs. Chafin is currently injured with no timetable for his return. The Cubs needs guys that can contribute as soon as tomorrow, not someone that is currently hurt and has struggled when he is healthy. There is definitely upside to this move, especially if he can come back and be what he has been in the past, but it's just a strange move to make right now.


Sunday, August 30, 2020

Cubs acquire Jose Martinez from Rays

 In what could be the first of a few trades prior to Mondays trade deadline the Chicago Cubs have acquired Jose Martinez from the Tampa Bay Rays for a couple players to be named later according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Although Martinez has just a .239/.329.3888 overall split this year, he has a tremendous amount of success against lefties, he has traditionally been known as a lefty masher with a lifetime .319/.392/.554 line in 336 plate appearances against southpaws throughout his career.

Getting his bat against lefties is a huge benefit to a team that has been very sad against lefties, the Cubs as a team are hitting just .208/.325/.333 against them.

Martinez, 32, was acquired by the Rays from the St. Louis Cardinals in the offseason. He is owed a pro-rated $2.125 million this year and is under team control through the 2022 season.

His position is listed as an OF/1B, but he likely receive the most of his playing time in the designated hitter spot as his defense is considered absolutely terrible.

In a corresponding move the Cubs have designated catcher Josh Phegley for assignment. Phegley had been a star of summer camp, but went just 1-16 with a home run and three strikeouts in the regular season.

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Late rally falters as Cubs fall to Tigers

 Before I start this game recap I want to give a shout out to Jason Heyward, who sat out of tonights game most likely in protest of the horrific shooting of Jacob Black. He joins the entire NBA, and several MLB teams who chose not to play tonight. Black Lives Matter and all lives can't matter until black lives do too. I am white, so I do not know the struggle of being black in America, but I am in full support of the movement.

If you want to make a donation, here is a link to some causes.

The Cubs dropped the rubber match 7-6 to the Tigers tonight to drop their record to 18-12.

Jon Lester was solid through five innings giving up one run on eight hits while striking out five and walking one. He was giving up contact, but did a good job to limit the damage.

Most of the damage came off of Rowan Wick (two) and Ryan Tepera (three) who gave up five runs in the sixth. It was an especially disappointing outing for Tepera who had been dominant since being brought up to the active roster.

The Cubs got the scoring started early in the third when they put runners on the corners with one out and Anthony Rizzo drove in a run with an RBI single and Javier Baez followed up with a sacrifice fly to put the Cubs up 2-0.

Kyle Schwarber would hit an opposite field home run for his sixth of the season, but that would be it for the Cubs offense until the ninth inning.

In the ninth the Cubs got four straight hits to start the inning off of Kyle Farmer including an RBI single by Nico Hoerner and RBI double by Albert Almora Jr. Rizzo would come up with a chance to give the Cubs the lead and he absolutely smashed a ball to center, but the deep center field in Comerica made it just a sacrifice fly. Baez would then hit a deep fly ball to left that was caught, and Schwarber would line out right to the pitcher to end the rally and the game.

The Cubs are off tomorrow, but go to Cincinnati to start a four game set against that includes a doubleheader. Kyle Hendricks will take the mound against Anthony DeSclafani.

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Tigers stomp Cubs

 Tyler Chatwood looked extremely rusty in his first start back from the IL and Tigers broke the game open late against the Cubs bullpen to win the game 7-1.

Chatwood lasted just an inning and a third giving up two runs on two hits while walking five and striking out two. He threw only 27 of his 55 pitches for strikes and left with the bases loaded, though no runs ended up scoring.

Jose Quintana made his season debut in the third and was good for his first three innings, but things fell apart for him in the sixth when he gave up a lead off single that was followed by an RBI double and he was pulled after a walk. Overall it was a fine season debut for Quintana, he was good early on and just seemed to run out of gas in the sixth.

After Quintana, Casey Sadler would come in and allow the Tigers to put the game out of reach. After a walk and a ground out he gave up a grand slam to Jonathan Schoop to make the score 7-0.

Kyle Ryan and Dan Winkler would both pitch scoreless innings. For Ryan it was nice to see as he has really struggled this year after being one of the most important pieces of the Cubs bullpen in 2019.

The Cubs got their only offense in the ninth when Willson Contreras ripped a solo home run in the ninth.

The series concludes tomorrow as Jon Lester will look to bounce back from his atrocious outing against the White Sox. Michael Fulmer will take the mound for the Tigers.

Cubs make roster moves for Chatwood, Quintana

 As expected the Chicago Cubs have activated Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana from the injured list. Chatwood will start tonight against the Tigers, while Quintana will move to the bullpen as I discussed before.

It is not sure if Chatwood, who is coming back from a back injury, will be limited tonight.

In corresponding moves the Cubs have optioned RHP Jason Adam and OF Ian Miller to the South Bend roster.

Adam appeared in three games for the Cubs allowing three runs in three and two thirds innings. He showed good stuff with an impressive nine strikeouts, but five hits including a home run and two walks really took away from his numbers.

Miller appeared in one game as a pinch runner. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him back on the active roster this season.

What to expect from Jose Quintana out of the 'pen

 The Cubs are expected to activate Jose Quintana from the injured list today and instead of being inserted into the rotation he will be moved to the bullpen.

Obviously it's very disappointing for the Cubs who gave up a lot to acquire him from the White Sox in 2017. Quintana hasn't turned into the pitcher they expected him to be, but he still has the potential to be an asset for the Cubs out of the bullpen.

Quintana has made two appearances out of the 'pen for the Cubs in previous years. The first was in Game Five of the NLDS against the Washngton Nationals in 2017, but he went just two thirds of an inning giving up a hit and a walk so there isn't much to take from that. The other appearance was during the second game of the 2019 season where he went four innings against the Texas Rangers giving up two unearned runs on five hits while striking out eight.

Looking at the splits Quintana is significantly more effective the first time through the order than he is the second or third time through. Hitters posted just a .275 wOBA the first time through the order, compared to .364 the second time through and .326 the third time through. His strikeout numbers jumped significantly as well as he struck out 22.9 percent of hitters compared to 17.5 and 18.8 percent the subsequent times.

Quintana has also seen his velocity trend slightly downward during his time with the Cubs, so a move to a reliever could potentially help him try and bring his velocity up as he would be able to give maximum effort on each pitch instead of trying to conserve himself to go deeper into the game.

The move gives the Cubs a much needed lefty for the bullpen as well. Brad Wieck is still injured, and Kyle Ryan hasn't been effective to say the least with a 7.04 ERA in nine appearances along with his still significantly diminished velocity and horrible underlying numbers. Quintana is at his best against lefties as they posted a 2.42 FIP and a .265 wOBA in a 162 plate appearance sample in 2019.

The Cubs will still be looking to add to the bullpen prior to Mondays trade deadline, but adding Quintana could give the Cubs a much needed boost to a bullpen that could definitely use the help.

Monday, August 24, 2020

Javy Baez breaks out as Cubs top Tigers

 It had been frustrating to watch Javier Baez lately as he had really been expanding the zone and was in probably the biggest slump of his career, but he broke out in a big way collecting three hits and two home runs leading the Cubs to a 9-3 victory and the 11,000th victory in franchise history.

Alec Mills rebounded after his rough outing last week to go seven strong innings giving up three runs on seven hits while walking one and striking out seven. It was really nice to see him go deep in the game and give the bullpen a bit of a rest.

The Cubs got going early off highly touted prospect Casey Mize as they put a runner on second with two outs in the second and then a hit by pitch set up back to back RBI singles by David Bote and Nico Hoerner.

After the Tigers got a run back in the third Bote would lead off the fourth inning with an absolute bomb to left. An error by the Tigers allowed Hoerner to reach base and two batters later after chasing Mize Anthony Rizzo would drive in the run with an RBI single. Baez would follow with his first home run of the game, a two-run blast to right center.

The bats would remain quiet until the ninth when Baez led off the ninth with his second home run and then after loading the bases Bote would drive in two more with a two-run single that  sneaked by two Tigers infielders.

Although Bote has really struggled to start the season his line is up to .222/.300/.429 after his monster game tonight boosting his wRC+ to 96. He still needs to reduce his 30 percent strike out rate, but it's a really positive game for the infielder.

Ryan Tepera continues to look excellent out of the bullpen striking out two in his inning of work and Colin Rea shut the door with a 1-2-3 ninth improving the Cubs record to 18-10.

The series continues tomorrow as Tyler Chatwood will make his return off the injured list facing off against Spencer Turnbull in a game that starts at 6:10 PM.

Sunday, August 23, 2020

Cubs beat Sox in nailbiter

 After the pitching getting obliterated back to back nights Yu Darvish was able to dominate the Sox white hot lineup to avoid the sweep.

Darvish threw seven dominant innings giving up just one run on six while striking out ten and walking one. The outing dropped his season ERA to 1.70 and he has become a leading contender for the NL Cy Young award.

The Sox got their only offense in the second when Jose Abreu (of course) hit his sixth home run of the three game series. He has just feasted on Cubs pitching day in and day out throughout the series.

In the sixth Javier Baez would hit a one out double and the Kyle Schwarber would follow with a two-run home run off former Cubs prospect Dylan Cease to give the Cubs a 2-1 lead.

It was a frustrating day overall for the bats, in the fourth they had first and third with one out and didn't score a run. They managed to top that in the fifth when they loaded the bases with no outs but a strikeout and a double play ended their chance.

Craig Kimbrel would come in for the eight and strike out Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada before walking Yasmani Grandal and Jose Abreu before David Ross would pull Kimbrel and bring in Jeremy Jeffress.

Jeffress would get Eloy Jimenez to line out and in the ninth he would get two quick outs, but an infield single and two walks would load the bases with Anderson at the dish and the tying run at third. However, Anderson would ground out to secure the 2-1 victory.

The Cubs travel to Detroit and take on the Tigers in a three game set. Alec Mills will look to rebound opposing Tigers top prospect Casey Mize.

Cubs add Ian Miller

 Prior to Sundays game the Cubs made a roster move adding speedy outfielder Ian Miller to the roster, in a corresponding move the team transferred RHP James Norwood to the 45-day injured list.

Miller was signed to a minor league contract and was having an excellent Spring Training before the COVID-19 shut down really ruined his chance of making the opening day roster. He will take Kris Bryants spot on the roster. 

The 27-year old made his major league debut in 2019 for the Minnesota and went just 3-17 with a double. He was very good in AAA split between the Seattle Mariners and Twins organizations hitting .264/.346/.431 with 11 home runs while stealing 35 bases in 42 attempts.

Miller will most likely see most of his playing time as a defensive replacement/pinch runner as he is very fast and is considered a very good defensive outfielder. If he plays well he could potentially put Albert Almora Jr on notice.

Although he is primarily a speed and defense guy he does provide the Cubs with some contact skills that they have been lacking lately. He struck out just 89 times in 514 AAA plate appearances, he doesn't hit for a ton of power, but a .167 ISO is certainly respectable

Norwood hasn't appeared in a game since July 29 and has been on the injured list since August 2nd with right shoulder inflammation. 

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Cubs split another doubleheader

The Cubs repeated the pattern they set Monday losing the first game 9-3, but taking a late lead to win the second game 4-2. Overall they won the series taking three of five and improve their record to 16-8.

Alec Mills simply did not have it in the first game lasting only three and two thirds innings allowing six runs on seven hits walking two while striking out just one. The big blow came in the first inning when he gave up a grand slam to Matt Carpenter. It was a disappointing outing for Mills who had gotten off to a very good start.

The Cubs offense was mostly lifeless in the first game managing just three runs on two hits, a lead off home run by Ian Happ and a two-run home run by Josh Phegley. The struggles came despite forcing Jack Flaherty to depart after an inning and two thirds with the bases loaded.

In the second game the Cubs gave the ball to promising right hander Adbert Alzolay and he delivered going five innings of one run ball on two hits while striking out six and walking one. His command was a little shaky at times but he did an excellent job of shutting down the Cardinals lineup.

The offense got started early as the "road" team as Victor Caratini hit a two-run single with one out that scored Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras who had both walked.

The Cardinals would get a run in the fifth after a throwing error by David Bote (though Anthony Rizzo probably should've had it). In the sixth they would tie it on a new Cub killer Brad Miller opposite field single.

David Bote would redeem himself however in the seventh inning when he batted with the bases loaded and one out and delivered with a two-run single off of Giovanni Gallegos. He has consistently been one of the Cubs top performers in the clutch and he delivered once again.

To close the game out the Cubs would turn to Craig Kimbrel for his first save opportunity since his near meltdown against the Royals. He looked excellent striking out three while hitting a batter. His fastball touched 99 MPH and he was getting swings on his pitches.

The Cubs are off tomorrow, but will start a three game series against the Chicago White Sox on Friday. Jon Lester will take on Dallas Keuchel.


Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Cubs outlast Cardinals

 In a game that seemed to drag on forever the Chicago Cubs beat the St. Louis Cardinals 6-3 thanks to an excellent start from Yu Darvish.

Darvish went six strong innings allowing one run on eight hits along with seven strikeouts.He did a good job of limiting the damage including getting out of a bases loaded no outs jam without allowing a run.

The Cubs got the scoring started in the third when Ian Happ hit a solo home run for his fifth home run, he continues to be a huge part of the Cubs offense this season. Batting lead off he went 2-3 with a home run and a walk improving his line to .313/.439/.627 and a 183 wRC+.

In the fourth Jason Heyward would extend the lead with an RBI triple, but the Cubs would waste a huge chance later in the frame as they had bases loaded and one out but managed to not score a run.

The next inning Javier Baez would rip a 111.9 MPH double and Kyle Schwarber followed with a 113.1 MPH two-run home run to make the game 4-1. The Cubs concluded the scoring on a Victor Caratini RBI double and a Jason Kipnis sacrifice fly in the seventh.

Casey Sadler looked good in his first inning of work, but quickly fell apart in the eight walking his first two batter before being pulled for Dan Winkler. Winkler would give up an RBI single, but then got a double play with the bases loaded.

After Winkler hit Dexter Fowler David Ross would signal for Rowan Wick who would strike out Andrew Knizer as the tying run. In the ninth he worked around a one out walk to secure the victory.

The Cubs conclude the series with another double header tomorrow. Alec Mills will take the mound opposing Jack Flaherty, while the starters for game two are unknown. The first game begins at 1:20 PM 

Monday, August 17, 2020

Cubs split double header against Cardinals

 The Chicago Cubs dropped the first game of their doubleheader 3-1, but rallied in the second game to pull of a 6-5 victory.

Kyle Hendricks got the ball in Game 1 and mostly did his thing, but he ran out of gas in the seventh and final inning and it cost the Cubs. He went six and a third allowing three runs on three hits with five strikeouts and a walk.

The only scoring for the Cubs came via an Ian Happ solo home run.

In the seventh the Cardinals loaded the bases with no outs and although they would get a force at home for the first out Rowan Wick would come in and give up a two-run double to give the Cardinals a lead they would not relinquish.

The second game would feature something very unusual. The Cubs were the road team at their own ballpark, this was due to the second game being a make up game for one the games in St. Louis that was postponed.

Tyson Miller would make his major league debut as the starter for the second game and didn't make much of an impression. He went just two innings allowing two runs on a hit with three walks and no strikeouts. The Cardinals seemed to have a good read on him and Miller didn't help himself with his command throwing 23 of his 42 pitches for strikes. The two runs he allowed came off a Brad Miller two run home run.

Aside from a run on a passed ball the Cubs offense would be completely shut down until the sixth. They collected their first hit on an RBI double by Willson Contreras and three batters later David Bote would pinch hit for Victor Caratini and deliver in the clutch with a go-ahead three run home run off Tyler Webb.

Overall the bullpen was really impressive in the second game. Ryan Tepera continues to grow as he struck out the side in his inning of work. Duane Underwood Jr. looked good. Kyle Ryan would struggle, however, as he allowed back to back home runs to Miller and rookie Max Schrock.

Dan Winkler would walk one, but escape his inning unscathed and Jeremy Jeffress would pitch a clean bottom of the seventh to lock up the game.

The series continues tomorrow at 7:15 as Yu Darvish will go against Daniel Ponce De Leon.

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Brewers take series

The Cubs fell to the Brewers 6-5 in what was yet another one run loss for the Cubs. The Brewers leave the north side having taken three of four from the Cubs.

Jon Lester had two bad innings but was otherwise fine. He gave up a frustrating three-run home run to Keston Hiura just a few innings after the Cubs had jumped up 3-0. In the fifth he would give up a two-run home run to #9 hitter Orlando Arcia to put the Brewers up 5-3. Overall Lester went six giving up five runs with five strikeouts.

The Cubs jumped on Josh Lindblom in the first inning when Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras drew back-to-back one out walks that led to a RBI single by Kyle Schwarber and then a two-run double by Steven Souza Jr.

In the sixth inning the Cubs would tie the game on a two-run single by Jason Kipnis. The Northbrook native has been incredible for the Cubs with a .355/.444/.710 line in 36 plate appearances. His 206 wRC+ is definitely boosted by his .500 BABIP.

Jason Adam would make his Cubs debut in the seventh and immediately give up a triple to Orlando Arcia thanks to a poor route ran by Ian Happ and Ryan Braun would follow up with an RBI single.

Craig Kimbrel came in for the eighth and looked excellent. He struck out the first two hitters looking and then got Manny Pina to pop out to retire the side. He threw 11 of his 15 pitches for strikes and was locating his fastball very effectively.

Josh Hader would shut the door on the Cubs in the ninth with the help of some questionable calls. Nico Hoerner worked a 13-pitch at bat with two outs but it ended with a soft fly out to center.

The Cardinals come into town for a five-game set that will feature two double headers including one tomorrow. Tomorrows game one starts at 4:15 CST and will feature Kyle Hendricks against Kwang-Hyun Kim. The starters for game two have yet to be determined.

Chatwood placed on IL, Cubs call up Jason Adam

 After being scratched from his start Friday with a mid-back strain he has now been placed on the 10-day injured list. To fill his place they have brought up RHP Jason Adam from the South Bend squad. To fit Adam on the 40-man roster the team designated RHP Jharel Cotton for assignment.

It's a disappointing turn for Chatwood to say the least. Aside from being roughed up against the Kansas City Royals he had been phenomenal in his first two starts with 23 strikeouts to only four walks in 15 innings pitched. He seemed to finally figure out the control issues that had plagued him. There is currently no timetable for his return.

The Cubs signed Adam to a minor league deal in January after spending 2019 with the Toronto Blue Jays organization. The 29-year old made 23 appearances out of the bullpen for the Jays giving up 15 hits in 21.2 innings pitched striking out 18 while walking 10.

Adam throws hard with a four-seam fastball that averages 94.4 MPH, he generates a ton of spin with it as his 2580 RPM ranked 13th in all of baseball last season. Hitters went just 9-55 with 16 strikeouts off the pitch.

He also features a curveball that he will drop in at 77.7 MPH and a change up that he throws just 11 percent of the time. He is a fly ball pitcher with a 30 percent fly ball average that was well above the major league average of 22 percent, he rarely induces ground balls as his 26.7 ground ball percent was well below the major league average of 45 percent. He induces a ton of pop ups as his 18.3 percent rate is significantly better than the major league average of seven percent.

Cotton was purchased by the Cubs from the A's in the offseason and has just never gotten a chance to  really show what he's got. The 28-year old last pitched in the big leagues in 2017 and wasn't particularly impressive when he did. The Cubs have 10 days to release, trade, or waive Cotton.

Friday, August 14, 2020

Cubs fall to Brewers

 Alec Mills was solid up until the sixth inning and the Brewers managed to squeak by the Cubs 4-3 to drop the northsiders to 13-4.

Mills spot started for an injured Tyler Chatwood and took a perfect game into the fifth but gave up a run in the fifth and then a back-breaking three-run home run to Christian Yelich. Overall he threw six innings of four run ball giving up five hits while striking out seven and walking one.

The Cubs got all of their runs in the fifth when they chased Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff after a Jason Kipnis RBI single, an Ian Happ RBI walk, and an Anthony Rizzo RBI single. Thy missed a huge chance to add on when Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber struck out against Freddy Peralta with the bases loaded.

The bullpen was excellent once again. Ryan Tepera was excellent over an inning and two thirds striking out two, Kyle Ryan struck out Yelich to end the eighth.

Craig Kimbrel would come in for the ninth and looked like a completely different pitcher. His fastball was topping out at 98 MPH and he seemed to be locating it much better. The command was still very spotty at times, but he was finally generating some swings and misses on both his fastball and curveball.

The Cubs put the tying run on in the eighth and Josh Hader would come in and load the bases with two outs, but Josh Phegley would strike out on a high pitch to end the threat. Kris Bryant was not available off the bench due to a wrist injury

In the bottom of the ninth Rizzo walked with two outs, but Baez would strike out against Hader to end the game.

The series continues tomorrow at 2:20 as the Cubs will send a to be determined starter to the mound against Adrian Houser.

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Darvish dominates Brewers

 Yu Darvish took a no-hitter into the seventh in an excellent outing against the MIlwaukee Brewers helping the Cubs improve their record to 13-3.

Darvish threw seven innings of one run and one hit ball, he struck out a season high 11 while walking two.The only hit he allowed was a solo home run off the bat of Justin Smoak.

The Cubs got going fast as Nico Hoerner hit the first pitch of the game for a double and then scored on back to back ground outs by Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez.

Kyle Schwarber would lead off the second inning with his third home run of the season. Despite a career worst .212 ISO Schwarber has been hitting the ball at the hardest rate of his career with a 94.2 MPH average exit velocity going into tonights game which ranks 10th in all of baseball (and third on his own team!)

Ian Happ would add on in the sixth with an RBI double that scored Willson Contreras from first and then David Bote would make it 4-0 with a single to left.

Casey Sadler would get the eighth and would give up a hit, but no runs. He got off to a bit of a rocky start, but has been good in three and a third August innings so far.

Rowan Wick would get the ninth and after getting two quick outs gave up a single and then an RBI double to Smoak, but would get Omar Narvaez to fly out and secured the 4-2 victory and earned his third save of the season.

The Cubs continue the series tomorrow at 7:15 as Tyler Chatwood looks to bounce back from his rough outing against the Royals. Brandon Woodruff will take the mound for the Brewers.

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Hendricks in command as Cubs top Indians

 The Chicago Cubs beat the Cleveland Indians 7-2 tonight completing a two game sweep and improving their record to a Major League Baseball best 12-3.

Kyle Hendricks continued his excellent season with six innings of one run ball giving up seven hits while striking out five. His curveball and change up were excellent tonight and he allowed very few hard hit balls.

The Cubs did a very impressive job making Carlos Carrasco work as he walked five in his four and a third innings pitched while allowing three runs on top of four hits. He only threw 57 of his 103 pitches for strikes and never seemed to get fully comfortable out there.

The offense got the scoring started in the third inning when Anthony Rizzo connected for a solo home run that had an exit velocity of 108.4 MPH.

In the fifth the Cubs would load the bases with one out which led to a Jason Heyward sacrifice fly and then a David Bote two-run single (he seems to like August 12th).

Prior to the runs scored the Cubs would lose catcher Willson Contreras after he was ejected slamming his bat while arguing a swinging strike. It would result in an interesting decision for the Cubs as they placed Victor Caratini at catcher which caused them to lose the designated hitter spot and moved Kyle Hendricks to the fourth spot in the line up. He would not take an at bat though as he would be pinch hit for by Steven Souza Jr.

The Cubs would add on to the lead in the 6th on a Kris Bryant 430 foot bomb. Jason Kipnis continued his revenge series with an RBI double and Jason Heyward would conclude the scoring with another RBI double to make it 7-2.

Heyward continues to heat up and has now gotten his season line up to .256/.313/.419 which puts his wRC+ at en even 100. His .163 ISO and 89.1 MPH exit velocity along with a .265 BABIP suggest that he could continue to improve over the next upcoming games.

Dan Winkler struggled out of the bullpen throwing 10 of his 22 pitches for strikes while walking two and striking out one. Rowan Wick would come in and allow a run that would be charged to Winkler, but struck out three in his inning and a third.

Jeremy Jeffress would come in for the ninth and induce a double play after a hit batter to secure the victory.

The Cubs start a four game set against the Milwaukee Brewers tomorrow at 6:15. Yu Darvish will take the mound opposing Chase Anderson in a game that is exclusive on FOX.




Thursday, August 6, 2020

Royals smack Cubs

The Royals dominated the Cubs 13-2 today ending the Cubs six-game winning streak and bringing their record down to 10-3.

The Cubs simply did not have an answer for Brad Keller today he threw five shutout innings giving up just three hits along with two walks while striking out seven.

Meanwhile the Royals bats were absolutely all over Tyler Chatwood today as he gave up an incredibly 11 hits in two and a third innings with two of those leaving the yard while striking out four. He just simply did not have it today and knocked the Cubs out of the game early.

Duane Underwood Jr. got roughed up in his outing as well allowing three runs on four hits and two walks in two and a third innings. He continues to struggle to establish himself as a quality big league reliever.

Ryan Tepera was the one bright spot for the Cubs pitching pitching a clean inning and a third with a two punchouts. He has the potential to establish himself as legit bullpen arm if he can continue to show swing and miss stuff like he has even if the results haven't been there.

Craig Kimbrel would throw the final half inning with the Cubs and it didn't start pretty with a hard-hit triple followed by a walk and an RBI single, but Kimbrel did bounce back to get two ground balls and a strikeout to end the threat. He finally got some swing and misses on his curveball, but overall it still was not a positive outing.

The Cubs got their runs when Victor Caratini and Nico Hoerner hit back-to-back RBI singles to give the Cubs some late offense.

The North Siders travel to St. Louis tomorrow to start a three game set. This will be the Cardinals first games since their Coronavirus outbreak. The Cardinals will send Daniel Ponce De Leon to the mound while the Cubs will start Jon Lester in a 7:15 PM start time.