One of the more disappointing story lines of the 2019 Cubs has been the fall of Pedro Strop. Thanks to a hamstring injury and a velocity drop that way be related to it the once dominant reliever has been a shell of his former self this year.
His 5.27 ERA in 31 appearances has been by far the worst of his Cubs career. The once incredibly reliable reliver has contributed to several late inning blown leads, including giving up three runs in the eighth inning on Monday against the Giants and a game tying three run home run to Starling Marte in the first game after the All Star Break.
A plausible explanation for these struggles has been his recurring hamstring injuries that may contribute to his significant velocity loss. He first hurt his left hamstring running the bases against the Nationals last September, he then hurt his right hamstring during Spring Training and then was placed on the IL in early May with another right hamstring injury. His velocity has been down a full tick this year with his fastball averaging just 94 MPH compared to 95.4 MPH last season which is a significant drop and could help explain his struggles.
Strop has been absolutely brutal in high leverage situations as batters are hitting .359/.444/.769 in 45 plate appearances, which is just not acceptable in any situation, and especially not when the game is on the line. Though it is fair to point out that his .500 BABIP against is just not sustainable and his 15/6 K?BB is pretty solid and right around his career average.
Obviously Strops struggles are concerning, but a lot of it may just be due to some bad luck. His 3.78 xFIP is significantly better and paints a much better picture of Strop. His strikeout-to-walk rate is the best it's been since 2016 and he still is holding hitters to a .222/.294/.465 line which is decent aside from the high slugging allowed. His left on base percentage of 64 percent is the worst of his career and his home run/fly ball ratio is over double his career average.
His problem is that when batters make contact they are crushing the ball as his 90.4 MPH exit velocity against and his 40 percent hard hit rate are by far his worst in the Statcast era. It's incredibly likely his velocity loss can be tied to this as the slower his pitches are, the easier he will be to square up against.
Ultimately time will tell whether Strop will be able to bounce back. There are still two months left in the regular season and the Cubs are likely to add to their bullpen. But right now Strop should not be trusted in key situations until he begins to return to his old self.
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