Last night it was reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network that the Cubs and former Cy Young Winner Jake Arrieta were close to a reunion. According to Patrick Mooney of the Athletic the deal is for one year and will pay the righty $6 million. Arrieta, 34, is coming off a injury shortened 2020 season.
The Cubs first acquired Arrieta from the Orioles in early July 2013 in the infamous Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger for Pedro Strop and Arrieta deal. He almost immediately became a key part of the Cubs rotation and was a key starting pitcher for the 2016 Cubs team that ended a 108-year drought.
In a three season stretch from 2014-16 Arrieta was one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. He started 89 games posting a 2.42 ERA throughout 583 innings he struck out 593 while walking 165. He threw two no-hitters and won a Cy Young Award in that span while starting seven postseason games.
His second half of 2015 may be one of the most dominant pitching performances of all time, in 100.1 innings pitched after the All-Star break he allowed only nine earned runs while striking out 103 and walking only 20. He held opposing hitters to a .150/.203/.205 line and it seemed like every time he took the bump he had a legitimate chance to throw a no-hitter (which he did do against the Dodgers).
Arrieta departed the Cubs after a slightly down, but still fairly good 2017 and signed a three year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. He saw his numbers decline significantly for the Phillies as he started just 64 games while battling various hamstring and elbow issues.
In those 64 starts he posted a 4.36 ERA in 352.2 innings while striking out just 280 while walking 124. That includes a very rough 2020 that saw him post a 5.08 ERA in 44.1 innings pitched while striking out only 32 batters and walking 16. He no longer has the overpowering stuff that allowed him to dominate with the Cubs and it shows.
The big culprit in Arrietas decline has been the huge loss of velocity. His sinker averaged just 92 MPH which is a far cry from the 95.3 MPH during his Cy Young season. Hitters were not fooled by the pitch as they hit .402 with 11 extra base hits against it while swinging and missing just 7.9 percent of the time.
He just doesn't fool batters as much as he used to, his 16.8 strikeout percentage was his worst since he was a 24-year old rookie and he ranked in the lower half among pitchers for both whiff percentage and limiting hard contact.
The trends have not been good and Cubs fans should definitely not expect Arrieta to return back to his dominant form, but if he can reinvent himself to become more of a contact management guy like Kyle Hendricks he can still be a decent starter. The velocity decline is a problem, but Cubs pitchers have shown in recent years that you don't need velocity to be a good starting pitcher.
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