Monday, July 30, 2018

Which Cubs position player is the most expendable?

The Cubs have a problem that all major league teams would all love to have: too many talented position players, but not enough positions to play them in. It's a good problem to have, but ultimately it leaves someone as the odd man out.

Ian Happ is the one that has been in rumors the most, especially for Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom, but after a slow start he has been crushing the ball with a .253/.375/.445 line. The strikeouts for Happ are an issue as he has struck out at a 35% clip, however, although the samples sizes are small he has brought down his strikeout rate through each month of the season. Happ has been the beneficiary of some good luck with a BABIP of .390 that most likely will go down.  One key value that Happ provides is that he can play multiple positions as he has seen time at all three outfield spots along with seeing time at third base. The Cubs might be preparing Happ to fill the role as a Ben Zobrist-type super utility player after Zobrist's contract expires after the 2019 season. Happ is just 23 and still has a lot of potential and if he is traded the return would have to be significant for the Cubs

Addison Russell is another name that was brought up in rumors a few months ago when he was struggling and Manny Machado was still available. Russell is just 24 has had an alright season with the bat with a .264/.335/.374 line which adds up to a 92 wRC+. His 9.3% walk rate along with a 20.3% strikeout rate is pretty solid and shows he at least has good plate discipline and bat control. Russell's lack of power is concerning with just a .110 ISO and a 5.7% HR/FB rate, which may be due to a decrease in both exit velocity and launch angle and a significant decrease in his hard hit percentage. What Russell doesn't provide on offense he certainly does on defense as he is a top tier defensive shortstop with an 11 defensive runs saved and a 2.4 ultimate zone rating. I think Russell is ultimately unlikely to be traded as he provides a ton of defensive value at a premier position and from the outside his offensive issues seem easy to fix.

David Bote initially came up when Ben Zobrist went down in April with some minor back tightness and although he has shuffled up and down between Iowa and Chicago he has done nothing but hit. He has put up a .327/.422/.519 line including a game-tying two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth last Thursday off the Diamonbacks. Like Happ, Bote has benefited from some significant good luck with a .395 BABIP and a most likely unsustainable 95.4 MPH exit velocity and 57.5 hard hit percentage. One thing Bote is really lacking is that he doesn't have the versatility Ian Happ has and his primary position is already locked down by former NL MVP Kris Bryant, who is currently on the disabled list. Ultimately I think Bote is the most likely to be traded as he is the oldest of the trio, and although he won't necessarily provide the return that Ian Happ could provide I think teams would be much more willing to meet the demands for Bote than for Happ. However, with the Cubs current injury situation it is highly unlikely a deal for Bote would happen in-season.

The Cubs are in a tough spot, all three players could provide significant value to the team there ultimately isn't enough playing time to go around when the team is healthy. If the Cubs can use one of these players to make a significant upgrade to their shaky pitching staff I think it would ultimately be the best for the Cubs competitive window.

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