According to Robert Murray of the Athletic the Chicago Cubs are signing right handed reliever to a minor-league contract. Wilson became a free agent Saturday after he was released by the Milwaukee Brewers.
Wilson struggled horrifically in his 13 outings with the Brewers. He allowed 12 runs in 11.1 innings along with 13 strikeouts to nine walks and three home runs. It's been a strange season as his strikeouts are by far the highest rate at his career, but he was also posting career highs in all the bad stats too. His peripherals aren't that bad as he had an xFIP of 5.04, his left on base rate was a career worst 60.6 percent, and his HR/FB of 30 percent was significantly above his career average of 8.6 percent.
The 32-year old veteran is coming off a four year stretch as a very reliable reliever with the Detroit Tigers. In 246 appearances over that stretch he posted a 3.20 ERA with 172 strikeouts to 62 walks in 264.2 innings. His FIP of 3.87 wasn't terrible, but maybe did suggest that he was getting slightly lucky. Despite the success, the Tigers non-tendered him, and the Brewers picked him up on a minor league contract after spending Spring Training with the Indians.
He throws his mid-80s slider over 50 percent of the time and generally had been very effective with it, but this year it was getting hammered for a .296 average against, his sinker, that he throws 28.2 percent of the time, was getting hammered for a .400 average against. The sample size for these isn't that great, but it does show what his issue was, he just plain and simply wasn't fooling batters and getting them to make outs. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, so he needs to rely on his defense and inducing weak contact which he didn't do this year.
You can never have enough depth, and that's exactly what Wilson is, a quality depth reliever that could potentially be capable of playing a role in a bullpen whether it be when rosters expand or someone gets hurt.
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Cubs trade Martin Maldonado to the Astros
Just a few weeks after acquiring catcher Martin Maldonado from the Kansas City Royals, the Cubs have shipped him off to the Houston Astros according to Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Astros beat writer Chandler Rome reports the Cubs are getting back Tony Kemp.
Maldonado appeared in only four games with the Cubs collection zero hits in 13 plate appearances with two walks and five strikeouts. He was never expected to be a huge contributor with the bat, but his glove work is very well respected that he could've definitely been useful for the Cubs.
However, the Cubs already Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini as the primary catching tandem, so they might just not feel it is necessary to carry three catchers, especially with the overall lack of depth and offensive struggles.
Kemp, who was designated for assignment last week, is a solid utility player that can fill in at both the outfield and at second base. He was having an OK season with the Astros hitting .227/.308/.417 with a 29-16 strikeout to walk rate and a career best seven home runs. His numbers could possibly be deflated by a .233 BABIP which is well below his career average of .270. Similar to a lot of players this year he is posting career best power numbers, which definitely will play for the Cubs
This is a solid depth move by the Cubs, Kemp is a serviceable defensive player who can provide much better hitting than Albert Almora and Daniel Descalso. He won't be an elite defender, but he is above average and has two outs above average according to Statcast.
The Cubs do save a bit of money with this deal as Kemp is making just $583,600 this year and won't be arbitration eligible until at least 2021.
Maldonado appeared in only four games with the Cubs collection zero hits in 13 plate appearances with two walks and five strikeouts. He was never expected to be a huge contributor with the bat, but his glove work is very well respected that he could've definitely been useful for the Cubs.
However, the Cubs already Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini as the primary catching tandem, so they might just not feel it is necessary to carry three catchers, especially with the overall lack of depth and offensive struggles.
Kemp, who was designated for assignment last week, is a solid utility player that can fill in at both the outfield and at second base. He was having an OK season with the Astros hitting .227/.308/.417 with a 29-16 strikeout to walk rate and a career best seven home runs. His numbers could possibly be deflated by a .233 BABIP which is well below his career average of .270. Similar to a lot of players this year he is posting career best power numbers, which definitely will play for the Cubs
This is a solid depth move by the Cubs, Kemp is a serviceable defensive player who can provide much better hitting than Albert Almora and Daniel Descalso. He won't be an elite defender, but he is above average and has two outs above average according to Statcast.
The Cubs do save a bit of money with this deal as Kemp is making just $583,600 this year and won't be arbitration eligible until at least 2021.
Thursday, July 25, 2019
Can Pedro Strop turn it around?
One of the more disappointing story lines of the 2019 Cubs has been the fall of Pedro Strop. Thanks to a hamstring injury and a velocity drop that way be related to it the once dominant reliever has been a shell of his former self this year.
His 5.27 ERA in 31 appearances has been by far the worst of his Cubs career. The once incredibly reliable reliver has contributed to several late inning blown leads, including giving up three runs in the eighth inning on Monday against the Giants and a game tying three run home run to Starling Marte in the first game after the All Star Break.
A plausible explanation for these struggles has been his recurring hamstring injuries that may contribute to his significant velocity loss. He first hurt his left hamstring running the bases against the Nationals last September, he then hurt his right hamstring during Spring Training and then was placed on the IL in early May with another right hamstring injury. His velocity has been down a full tick this year with his fastball averaging just 94 MPH compared to 95.4 MPH last season which is a significant drop and could help explain his struggles.
Strop has been absolutely brutal in high leverage situations as batters are hitting .359/.444/.769 in 45 plate appearances, which is just not acceptable in any situation, and especially not when the game is on the line. Though it is fair to point out that his .500 BABIP against is just not sustainable and his 15/6 K?BB is pretty solid and right around his career average.
Obviously Strops struggles are concerning, but a lot of it may just be due to some bad luck. His 3.78 xFIP is significantly better and paints a much better picture of Strop. His strikeout-to-walk rate is the best it's been since 2016 and he still is holding hitters to a .222/.294/.465 line which is decent aside from the high slugging allowed. His left on base percentage of 64 percent is the worst of his career and his home run/fly ball ratio is over double his career average.
His problem is that when batters make contact they are crushing the ball as his 90.4 MPH exit velocity against and his 40 percent hard hit rate are by far his worst in the Statcast era. It's incredibly likely his velocity loss can be tied to this as the slower his pitches are, the easier he will be to square up against.
Ultimately time will tell whether Strop will be able to bounce back. There are still two months left in the regular season and the Cubs are likely to add to their bullpen. But right now Strop should not be trusted in key situations until he begins to return to his old self.
His 5.27 ERA in 31 appearances has been by far the worst of his Cubs career. The once incredibly reliable reliver has contributed to several late inning blown leads, including giving up three runs in the eighth inning on Monday against the Giants and a game tying three run home run to Starling Marte in the first game after the All Star Break.
A plausible explanation for these struggles has been his recurring hamstring injuries that may contribute to his significant velocity loss. He first hurt his left hamstring running the bases against the Nationals last September, he then hurt his right hamstring during Spring Training and then was placed on the IL in early May with another right hamstring injury. His velocity has been down a full tick this year with his fastball averaging just 94 MPH compared to 95.4 MPH last season which is a significant drop and could help explain his struggles.
Strop has been absolutely brutal in high leverage situations as batters are hitting .359/.444/.769 in 45 plate appearances, which is just not acceptable in any situation, and especially not when the game is on the line. Though it is fair to point out that his .500 BABIP against is just not sustainable and his 15/6 K?BB is pretty solid and right around his career average.
Obviously Strops struggles are concerning, but a lot of it may just be due to some bad luck. His 3.78 xFIP is significantly better and paints a much better picture of Strop. His strikeout-to-walk rate is the best it's been since 2016 and he still is holding hitters to a .222/.294/.465 line which is decent aside from the high slugging allowed. His left on base percentage of 64 percent is the worst of his career and his home run/fly ball ratio is over double his career average.
His problem is that when batters make contact they are crushing the ball as his 90.4 MPH exit velocity against and his 40 percent hard hit rate are by far his worst in the Statcast era. It's incredibly likely his velocity loss can be tied to this as the slower his pitches are, the easier he will be to square up against.
Ultimately time will tell whether Strop will be able to bounce back. There are still two months left in the regular season and the Cubs are likely to add to their bullpen. But right now Strop should not be trusted in key situations until he begins to return to his old self.
Monday, July 15, 2019
Cubs acquire Martin Maldonado
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports the Cubs have acquired catcher Martin Maldonado from the Kansas City Royal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports Mike Montgomery is going back to the Royals.
Maldonado is light with the stick as he is hitting just .224/.288/.359 on the year with six home runs and 55 strikeouts to 17 walks, but he creates almost all of his value on defense as he is an elite framer and has a strong arm throwing out 33 percent of would be base stealers.
Devan Fink of Fangraphs tweets that Maldonaldo has saved an estimated 69.4 runs since 2012 from his framing alone which is a skill the Cubs have lacked in the past few seasons.
Obviously the first concern is towards the health of Willson Contreras, he has not played since Saturday after suffering a foot injury. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic tweets that Contreras will be going on the injured list with a strain of the arch muscle on his right foot. He is not expected to be out long, but obviously any injury is concerning.
It's likely that Maldonaldo will take over everyday duties will Contreras is out, his defense should give an immediate boost to a pitching staff that has struggled to get calls on the corners all season.
The tricky part is when Contreras comes back. Victor Caratini has been excellent all season and it seems unlikely the Cubs would send him down. One possible option is to cut Daniel Descalso who has provided absolutely no value to the team this year..
The other side of the deal is losing Mike Montgomery. He had been a crucial part of the bullpen the past few years, including getting the final out of the 2016 World Series, but he has not been effective at all this year and it was probably time to move on and get some value.
He's made 20 appearances this season and has posted a 5.67 ERA (6.21 FIP) in 27 innings. His already low strikeout numbers combined with a career high walk rate is not a good combination and an increased home run rate is just a death sentence for a pitcher. He goes to the Royals where he will get a chance to rebound.
Maldonado is light with the stick as he is hitting just .224/.288/.359 on the year with six home runs and 55 strikeouts to 17 walks, but he creates almost all of his value on defense as he is an elite framer and has a strong arm throwing out 33 percent of would be base stealers.
Devan Fink of Fangraphs tweets that Maldonaldo has saved an estimated 69.4 runs since 2012 from his framing alone which is a skill the Cubs have lacked in the past few seasons.
Obviously the first concern is towards the health of Willson Contreras, he has not played since Saturday after suffering a foot injury. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic tweets that Contreras will be going on the injured list with a strain of the arch muscle on his right foot. He is not expected to be out long, but obviously any injury is concerning.
It's likely that Maldonaldo will take over everyday duties will Contreras is out, his defense should give an immediate boost to a pitching staff that has struggled to get calls on the corners all season.
The tricky part is when Contreras comes back. Victor Caratini has been excellent all season and it seems unlikely the Cubs would send him down. One possible option is to cut Daniel Descalso who has provided absolutely no value to the team this year..
The other side of the deal is losing Mike Montgomery. He had been a crucial part of the bullpen the past few years, including getting the final out of the 2016 World Series, but he has not been effective at all this year and it was probably time to move on and get some value.
He's made 20 appearances this season and has posted a 5.67 ERA (6.21 FIP) in 27 innings. His already low strikeout numbers combined with a career high walk rate is not a good combination and an increased home run rate is just a death sentence for a pitcher. He goes to the Royals where he will get a chance to rebound.
Tuesday, July 9, 2019
Zack Wheeler is a perfect pitching target for the Cubs
A report came out today from Andy Martino linking the Cubs as a possibility for Mets starting pitcher Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler, 29, is a tall, hard throwing right hander with a fastball that has been averaging near 97 MPH could be a real weapon for the Cubs rotation. Despite the high velocity he's had surprisingly good control with a 6.7% walk rate and a 3.82 K/BB ratio this year.
Although the results for Wheeler haven't been as good as last season with a 4.69 ERA, his peripherals are a lot better with a 3.83 xFIP. His left on base percentage (LOB%) is a career low 65.9 percent and indicates he's been dealt a pretty poor hand in the luck department.
Something that has plagued Wheeler this year is a significant increase in the amount of hard contact against him. Last year just 27.1% of the balls in play against him were considered hard contact which ranked in the top four percent in the league, but this year that number has spiked to 34.5 percent.
A decent chunk of that could be attributed to the significant spike in the usage of his sinker, which he has doubled in usage from last year to much worse results. Hitters are averaging .285 off the sinker with an average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH which is a significant regression from last year where hitters averaged .204 and an exit velocity of 81.5 MPH.
He's also dropped the usage of his four seam fastball from 42.3 percent of the time to 27.5 percent of the time despite a .216 batting average against and a .295 slugging percentage this year compared to a .244 average and .342 slugging last year.
The Cubs rotation has been OK, but not really good this season. Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, and Jon Lester have all been great, but Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish have both been big time disappointments for the Cubs. With Cole Hamels potentially still on the shelf for a while with an oblique injury, it's fair to ask whether the Cubs should pursue a starting pitcher.
Obviously the biggest factor to consider is the cost of acquiring Wheeler. If the Mets want Nico Hoerner or Miguel Amaya for a couple month rental than the Cubs should just laugh at the Mets, but if they are able to give up some mid-tier prospects along with being able to fill their bigger needs than this is something they should absolutely pursue.
Wheeler, 29, is a tall, hard throwing right hander with a fastball that has been averaging near 97 MPH could be a real weapon for the Cubs rotation. Despite the high velocity he's had surprisingly good control with a 6.7% walk rate and a 3.82 K/BB ratio this year.
Although the results for Wheeler haven't been as good as last season with a 4.69 ERA, his peripherals are a lot better with a 3.83 xFIP. His left on base percentage (LOB%) is a career low 65.9 percent and indicates he's been dealt a pretty poor hand in the luck department.
Something that has plagued Wheeler this year is a significant increase in the amount of hard contact against him. Last year just 27.1% of the balls in play against him were considered hard contact which ranked in the top four percent in the league, but this year that number has spiked to 34.5 percent.
A decent chunk of that could be attributed to the significant spike in the usage of his sinker, which he has doubled in usage from last year to much worse results. Hitters are averaging .285 off the sinker with an average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH which is a significant regression from last year where hitters averaged .204 and an exit velocity of 81.5 MPH.
He's also dropped the usage of his four seam fastball from 42.3 percent of the time to 27.5 percent of the time despite a .216 batting average against and a .295 slugging percentage this year compared to a .244 average and .342 slugging last year.
The Cubs rotation has been OK, but not really good this season. Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, and Jon Lester have all been great, but Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish have both been big time disappointments for the Cubs. With Cole Hamels potentially still on the shelf for a while with an oblique injury, it's fair to ask whether the Cubs should pursue a starting pitcher.
Obviously the biggest factor to consider is the cost of acquiring Wheeler. If the Mets want Nico Hoerner or Miguel Amaya for a couple month rental than the Cubs should just laugh at the Mets, but if they are able to give up some mid-tier prospects along with being able to fill their bigger needs than this is something they should absolutely pursue.
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
What's a realistic role for Robel Garcia on the big league team?
26-year infielder Robel Garcia has taken the minor leagues by storm this off season. He was signed to the Cubs organization out of Italy and has done nothing but hit.
In 22 games for Iowa he has hit .295/.391/.590 with six home runs, and overall he has hit an impressive 17 home runs in 59 games. It's getting to a point where the Cubs have to seriously getting a look at what he could provide at the big league level.
It would be hard for Garcia to find an everyday role for the Cubs, they already have Kris Bryant at third and Javier Baez at short. The majority of his minor league playing time has come at second base, but he has played just four games there this year, and there's no assurances he will be a good defender.
His best bet would be to settle into a similar role like David Bote, not necessarily playing every day, but getting enough playing time at various positions you essentially are an everyday player. There are no assurances that his hitting will translate to the big leagues, but if it does than the Cubs have a legitimate bench threat in Garcia.
Garcia is a switch hitter so there isn't much of a platoon consideration, the most realistic options for him is to take the place of Daniel Descalso or Addison Russell.
Descalso got off to a somewhat quick start with a .757 OPS through May 1st, but since then he has been absolutely horrific slashing .098/.211/.131 in 33 games and 72 plate appearances. The signing was a questionable one at the beginning, but has proven to be a disaster. The Cubs have to seriously consider cutting bait, especially if they want to be a World Series contender. Of course there are contract considerations to be made here, as he is guaranteed $2.5 million for 2020 and $1 million in a $3.5 million team option for 2021
Russell has been better than Descalso, but still hasn't been as productive as the Cubs would like. He's hitting just .230/.296/.379 since returning from his domestic violence suspension. Although his power is up from 2018, it's still down from where it was in 2016-17. His defense has still been strong range-wise with a 1.2 UZR in 58 innings.
If Garcia continues to force his way into the big league club the best option would probably be to get rid of Descalso, he has been a complete negative to the Cubs and it's something that can't continue to last for much longer.
In 22 games for Iowa he has hit .295/.391/.590 with six home runs, and overall he has hit an impressive 17 home runs in 59 games. It's getting to a point where the Cubs have to seriously getting a look at what he could provide at the big league level.
It would be hard for Garcia to find an everyday role for the Cubs, they already have Kris Bryant at third and Javier Baez at short. The majority of his minor league playing time has come at second base, but he has played just four games there this year, and there's no assurances he will be a good defender.
His best bet would be to settle into a similar role like David Bote, not necessarily playing every day, but getting enough playing time at various positions you essentially are an everyday player. There are no assurances that his hitting will translate to the big leagues, but if it does than the Cubs have a legitimate bench threat in Garcia.
Garcia is a switch hitter so there isn't much of a platoon consideration, the most realistic options for him is to take the place of Daniel Descalso or Addison Russell.
Descalso got off to a somewhat quick start with a .757 OPS through May 1st, but since then he has been absolutely horrific slashing .098/.211/.131 in 33 games and 72 plate appearances. The signing was a questionable one at the beginning, but has proven to be a disaster. The Cubs have to seriously consider cutting bait, especially if they want to be a World Series contender. Of course there are contract considerations to be made here, as he is guaranteed $2.5 million for 2020 and $1 million in a $3.5 million team option for 2021
Russell has been better than Descalso, but still hasn't been as productive as the Cubs would like. He's hitting just .230/.296/.379 since returning from his domestic violence suspension. Although his power is up from 2018, it's still down from where it was in 2016-17. His defense has still been strong range-wise with a 1.2 UZR in 58 innings.
If Garcia continues to force his way into the big league club the best option would probably be to get rid of Descalso, he has been a complete negative to the Cubs and it's something that can't continue to last for much longer.
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
What's the Happs with Ian Happ?
The Cubs decision to send Ian Happ down to Triple-A Iowa was met with mixed reactions. Some felt it was smart because he definitely had some major holes in his swing, but others thought that despite the holes he could still contribute on the big league team.
It's about over a month and a half into the season and it's a good time to look at some of the numbers Ian Happ is putting up for Iowa.
His line in Iowa is not impressive at all with a .223/.348/.378 line in a very hitter friendly environment. His strikeout rate is very high at 25.8% and he has barely hit for any power with just 13 extra base hits.
He's been trending in the wrong direction too with a .207/.373/.328 slash line with 18 strikeouts in 75 plate appearances. It's still too early to begin to question his long term future with the Cubs, he's clearly shown his talent before.
To make things worse he left yesterdays game with a finger injury, but it's not expected to be anything that would knock him out for any significant stretch of time.
Although he had a very strong rookie year for the Cubs, his numbers definitely went down significantly, and that could be tied to a sharp increase to his already high strikeout rates. Even in an era where strikeouts are more acceptable, he is still striking out way too much to be a relied on in the big leagues.
You could make the argument that Happ could do much better than Mark Zagunis, who is currently hitting .242 with a .658 OPS. But if the Cubs want Happ to continue to make adjustments, then it is probably better to keep him down at Iowa for the time being.
It's about over a month and a half into the season and it's a good time to look at some of the numbers Ian Happ is putting up for Iowa.
His line in Iowa is not impressive at all with a .223/.348/.378 line in a very hitter friendly environment. His strikeout rate is very high at 25.8% and he has barely hit for any power with just 13 extra base hits.
He's been trending in the wrong direction too with a .207/.373/.328 slash line with 18 strikeouts in 75 plate appearances. It's still too early to begin to question his long term future with the Cubs, he's clearly shown his talent before.
To make things worse he left yesterdays game with a finger injury, but it's not expected to be anything that would knock him out for any significant stretch of time.
Although he had a very strong rookie year for the Cubs, his numbers definitely went down significantly, and that could be tied to a sharp increase to his already high strikeout rates. Even in an era where strikeouts are more acceptable, he is still striking out way too much to be a relied on in the big leagues.
You could make the argument that Happ could do much better than Mark Zagunis, who is currently hitting .242 with a .658 OPS. But if the Cubs want Happ to continue to make adjustments, then it is probably better to keep him down at Iowa for the time being.
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