After a frustrating end to the 2018 Cubs season where they scored a combined two runs in two must win games the Cubs turned their focus onto 2019. The lame duck status of Joe Maddon has raised some concerns among fans that this could be a "do or die" season.
The Cubs have been relatively quiet this offseason on the field as they only inked Daniel Descalso, Kendall Graveman, Brad Brach, and Tony Barnette to big league contracts. Though Graveman will not play for most of 2019 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
The bigger moves were off the field as they fired hitting coach Chili Davis and replaced him with former Texas Rangers hitting coach Anthony Iapoce. Pitching coach Jim Hickey also left the team and was replaced with Tommy Hottovy. They also lost bench coach Brandon Hyde to the Orioles and replaced him with former big league infielder Mark Loretta.
Looking at this possible roster I really don't see any glaring weaknesses aside from backup catcher. The biggest key will be keeping everybody healthy as there are some real questions regarding some of the depth options this team has. But if they stay healthy I see no reason they won't win the NL Central and compete for another World Series title.
Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester, 35, if you take a look at the basic stats Jon Lester had a dominant 2018 season. His 18-6 record along with a 3.32 ERA was phenomenal and his excellent Wild Card game start, 6 innings allowing 4 hits and an earned run with 9 strikeouts, was the perfect conclusion to his season but the advanced stats do not paint a pretty picture. Lester allowed significantly more hard contact than he has in years past including his highest hard hit percentage since 2007. That, along with a significant decrease in his strikeout rate is bound to raise some concerns especially as he starts to get up there in age. I'm expecting Lesters numbers to take a step back in 2019 but he should still be a very dependable starter in 2019, though future seasons remain a question mark.
Kyle Hendricks, 29, despite a somewhat slow start to his season Hendricks managed to post one of the best seasons of his career in 2018. His 3.44 ERA and career best walk rate makes him the safest bet for the Cubs rotation.. His ability to limit hard contact and relying on the defense behind him as made him one of the more consistent starters for the Cubs. His xFIP of 3.87 mostly backs up his performance, and his home run issues in the first half were pretty much completely resolved in the second half (only 5 in 88.2 innings). I'd expect Hendricks to be the same steady and consistent guy he has been in the past.
Cole Hamels, 36 was traded to the Cubs near the trade deadline having one of the worst seasons of his career. His ERA and home run rates with the Rangers were the highest of his career, and his peripherals didn't paint a pretty picture either. However, after the trade Hamels did a complete 180 on his season and became one of the Cubs most dependable starters down the stretch. His significantly improved home run rate and improved contact percentages may correlate with his increased fastball use since the trade. While it may not be realistic to expect Hamels to return to that level of dominance, he should be able to return to his career norms (3.40 ERA and 3.40 K/BB) which would be a tremendous boost to the Cubs rotation.
Jose Quintana, 30, although Quintana hasn't exactly lived up to the lofty expectations given considering the quality of the prospects he was traded for, he has still been a fairly dependable pitcher and is perfect for the back end of the Cubs rotation. There are some concerns about Quintana as he posted the worst walk rate of his career and his spin rates on his fastball and curveball both ranked among the worst in the league. His biggest issue has been with falling behind in the count as although he threw 65 percent first pitch strikes, he got absolutely clobbered when he did fall behind to the tune of a 1.066 OPS, compared to .475 when ahead. If Quintana can get his command back to where it was pre-2018 than I think he should take a huge step forward in 2019, but if he doesn't we may be stuck watching mediocre pitching once again.
Yu Darvish, 32, frankly Darvishs first season in Chicago was a disaster, a triceps strain and stress reaction in his elbow ended his season in May and when he did pitch the results were not good. In 8 starts and 40 innings Darvis compiled a 4.95 ERA allowing 7 home runs and 21 walks while striking out 49. Like Quintana, Darvish posted the highest walk rate of his career, but he also had the highest home run rate of his career as well. The good news for Darvish is that his home run rate was a bit higher than normal and his xFIP of 4.24 suggests he got a little unlucky. His LOB% of 72.3 was a bit below his career rate. The spin rate on his fastball was among the top of the league and his statcast expected numbers all suggested that there is a lot of room for improvement. I think Darvish is a really strong bet to bounce back and he should show why the Cubs paid him the big bucks in 2019.
Bullpen
Brad Brach, 32, is one of the new faces of the bullpen had a season that can only be considered a tale of two teams. He was awful for the pitiful Baltimore Orioles posting a 4.85 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in 39 innings before being traded to the Braves where he was a huge part of their bullpen down the stretch with a 1.52 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. One of Brachs strengths is a perfect fit for this Cubs team as his hard hit prevention ranked in the 94th percentile for 2018, and combined with an usually high amount of bloops suggests he could be a key piece to the Cubs bullpen. He won't be as dominant as he was with the Braves, but he should be a key late inning guy for the Cubs.
Tony Barnette, 35, is the second reliever inked to a big league deal by the Cubs and he has the potential to be the most intriguing. Although his 2018 season was cut short due to a right lat strain, he pitched very well when he was healthy with a 2.39 ERA and a 3.30 xFIP in 26.1 innings. His strongest trait is his command as he walked just 4.8 percent of the batters he faced and had a ground ball rate of 51.4 percent. If healthy this could be a huge coup for the Cubs, he's pitched very well in two of his three big league seasons, and in the poor one he had very good peripherals that suggested he was unlucky.
Brandon Kintzler, 34, was a trade deadline acquisition to strengthen the bullpen but ended up falling flat. He regressed significantly in nearly every stat, and ultimately was one of the reasons the Cubs failed to win the division. In 25 games with the Cubs he posted an ERA of 7.00 and allowing 36 baserunners in 18 innings. He has the inside track for a bullpen spot due to his $5 million dollar salary thanks to a picked up player option. Although expectations will probably be low for him, I think he will mostly bounce back and hopefully post an ERA around 4 while pitching in mainly low/mid leverage situations.
Mike Montgomery. 29, has been one of the unsung heroes for the Cubs in the past few seasons. His ability to both start and relieve makes him a unique asset and someone the Cubs should be able to rely on to give the team innings wherever needed. In 39 games (19 starts) Montgomery posted a 3.99 ERA (4.29 xFIP) in 124 innings. He posted the best K/BB of his career (2.21) and pretty sustainable LOB% (73%) and HR/FB(9.5%). Montgomery should continue to be one of the more reliable arms for the Cubs, though I don't expect him to start much this year, he should still be an effective member of the bullpen.
Tyler Chatwood, 29 was the Cubs second biggest signing of the 2017 offseason and the results were a complete disaster. Chatwood walked 95 batters in 103.2 innings and no that is not a typo. His complete loss of control was one of the more frustrating storylines of the 2018 season and raises a lot of concerns going into 2019. Chatwood generally has good stuff as his fastball and curveball spin rates were both at elite levels, but it doesn't matter if he can't throw it for strikes. 2019 is a make or break season for Chatwood and if he can't find the strike zone soon his tenure in Chicago will be over soon.
Steve Cishek, 32, had one of the best seasons by a Cubs reliever in recent memory and was clearly their most important reliever throughout the whole season. He threw a career high 70.1 in a career high 80 appearances and didn't disappoint with a 2.18 ERA and allowed an incredibly impressive .181/.287/.306 line with a 2.79 K/BB. He did fade a bit down the stretch with a 4.15 ERA in September, but that was almost expected with how much the Cubs relied on him. His 3.91 xFIP suggests to expect a decent amount of regression, but so far his career trend has been to significantly outperform his peripherals. He probably won't be as good as 2018, but even if he regresses to around a 3.00 ERA he will still be a valuable member of the Cubs bullpen.
Pedro Strop, 33, before he went down with a hamstring injury running out a ground ball Strop was the rock of the Cubs bullpen. His 2.26 ERA in 59.2 innings was impressive as well as his dominance in high leverage spots(.548 OPS.) Though there should be some concern about his 4.08 xFIP and career high 83. LOB% with a career low 46.1 groundball percentage. He filled in adequately after Brandon Morrows season was ended, converting 13 of 17 save opportunities, but will likely move back to his normal 8th inning guy role next season. It's fair to expect Strops numbers to fall off a little bit next year, but he's been one of the best relievers in Cubs history and I expect to see more of the same next season.
Brandon Morrow, 34, when healthy he was a dominant relief arm for the Cubs, but after an unfortunate pants mishap in July he didn't pitch for the rest of the season. When he did pitch he was busy posting a 1.47 ERA in 30.2 innings and converted 22/24 save opportunities. He backed up the performance well too with a 1.08 WHIP and a 3.19 xFIP, and the only state that was ridiculous was his 93 LOB% . Morrow is projected to miss some time at the start of the season as he recovers from offseason elbow surgery, but he should return to his normal 9th inning role for 2019.
Catcher
Willson Contreras, 26, it was a tale of two halves for Contreras as the catcher went from being the NL starter at the All-Star game in 2018 to hitting a pitiful .200/.291/.294 in the second half. One of Contreras traits is his energy and it's fair to wonder if he wore down by the end of the season or if his breakdown was just one of many Cubs bats at the end of 2018. His framing metrics were not kind to him, though he did throw a solid 27 runners out. Contreras was one of 4 catchers that logged 1000 innings behind the plate, and it's very possible that was a big cause of his second half decline. I don't expect Contreras to repeat his second half numbers as I think a move away from Chili Davis will do wonders for his performance and if the Cubs can add a veteran backup catcher than a lighter workload could be huge for him.
Victor Caratini, 25, as of now Caratini is the projected back up catcher, but if the Cubs can add a veteran presence then that will change. Caratini did not hit well in 2018 with a .597 OPS and just two home runs along with a below average 6% walk rate. He caught 290.2 innings behind the plate throwing out a league average 28% of base runners, but like Contreras, had below average framing numbers. He will need to have a huge step forward offensively for the Cubs to not look for a veteran addition, but he did have a very good year in AAA and crushed the Puerto Rico Winter League in just 12 games.
Infield
Anthony Rizzo, 29, although Rizzo wasn't as good as he's been in years past he was still one of the best first baseman in the National League last year. He went from hitting .149/.259/.189 with a 15-4 K/BB rate to a .283/.376/.470 with 25 home runs along with playing his typical elite defense at first and winning his 2nd Gold Glove. There are some concerns about his back that has caused him to miss some time, but if he's healthy he should have another elite season. Rizzo has been one of the most important pieces for the Cubs throughout this decade, his bat and clubhouse leadership has made him one of the most valuable hitters in the league. It should be more of the same for Rizzo in 2019. but I would expect his numbers to jump a little bit if he can stay healthy.
Javier Baez, 26, it's not possible to describe how huge Baez was for the 2018 team. He finished 2nd in NL MVP voting with a .290/.326/.554 slash line with 34 home runs along with playing very good defense. Baez still does not walk at all, but he managed to make contact 50 percent of the time when he chased pitches out of the zone. It's highly unlikely that Baez will be able to replicate his 2018 performance as pitchers will most likely adjust to his over aggressiveness, but he definitely still has 30 home run power in him and if he can slightly improve his walk rate while maintaining solid middle infield defense he will be a very valuable player for the Cubs.
Daniel Descalso, 32, although he isn't the big bat signing Cubs fans wanted, he is the one they got. He had a solid season for the Diamondbacks slashing .238/.353/.436 with a career high 13 home runs. Part of Descalsos career high power numbers can be attributed to a significant increase in his launch angle, it jumped to 19.7 from 12.8 the year before. If he can keep it around that level it's not unreasonable to expect his home run numbers to remain the same. His numbers were much better at the hitter friendly Chase Field, but it's worth noting his .245 road BABIP likely deflated his numbers. Descalso provides the defensive versatility the Cubs love, he's spent time at every position except catcher and center field, and can fill in for almost everyone. He figures to be a utility guy that will be plugged in when someone needs a rest or he has a favorable matchup.
Kris Bryant, 27, expectations were high going into the 2018 season, but he played in just 102 games dealing with shoulder ailments that sapped a decent amount of his power. He still managed to hit a very solid .272/.374/.460, but the 12 home runs was a career low along with his .188 ISO. His defense at third also took a nose dive as he was worth -2 defensive runs saved and had a -3.2 ultimate zone rating. He did not have offseason surgery on his shoulder so the Cubs believe his shoulder had healed enough to avoid it. Bryant, barring any reoccurring shoulder issues, should return to being the hitter he has been in the past and could be a potential MVP candidate.
Addison Russell, 25, although Russell will not be on the Opening Day roster due to terrible domestic abuse allegations by his ex-wife, Russell is likely to take back his starting shortstop job when he returns. 2018 was not a good year for Russell, although his defense was still elite, he hit just .250/.317/.340 which is good for a 80 wRC+. The biggest concern for him was his power took a massive nosedive with just a .090 ISO and an average exit velocity of just 86.3 MPH his 26.5 hard hit percentage was one of the worst in the league. Ignoring his off the field issues, if Russell can improve his bat to where it was in the first half than he will be incredibly valuable to the Cubs, but if he doesn't than it may be time to start thinking about his future with the Cubs.
Outfielders
Kyle Schwarber, 25, it was a mixed bag season for Schwarber, who hit for power (26 home runs), and walked a lot (15.3%), but there's still room for improvement. His strikeout rate is still way too high at 27.5% and if he's gonna want to take the next step to becoming an elite hitter, than reducing that will be the biggest key. If he can get his slash line up to .260/.370/.500 than the Cubs would be in really good shape. His defense has improved significantly as he was worth 2 defensive runs saved in left field and had a 9.8 ultimate zone rating, his strong arm is his biggest asset as he threw out 11 runners on the base paths. This is a huge year for Schwarber and if he can keep progressing from his rough 2017 season than he should continue to be one of the most feared bats in the Cubs lineup.
Ian Happ, 24, 2018 was a disappointing season for Happ who struggled to make consistent contact and saw a drop off from his promising numbers as a rookie. When Ian Happ hits the ball he hits it hard, his 90 MPH exit velocity was in the 76th percentile in the MLB, but the big issue is the fact that he struck out 36.1 % of the time, a number that will not lead to any success in the big leagues. Happ has a ton of potential as a switch hitter, but he needs to make more consistent contact if he wants to live up to it. His defense was not good either as he was worth -6 defensive runs saved and a -3.3 UZR in the outfield. Happ is still young enough that his struggles can be corrected, but this will be a big year for him to see him start to make those corrections.
Albert Almora Jr., 24, I've talked about Almora Jr and what to expect from him
before, but I'll talk about it again. Essentially it was a tale of two halves for Almora Jr. He went from hitting .319/.357/.438 in the first half to .232/.267/.280 in the second half. I highly doubt he is as good as he was in the first half. but he definitely is a better hitter than he was in the second half. He's an old school contact guy who won't walk too much, but also won't strike out an obscene amount. The only issue with high contact guys is they often rely on a bit of BABIP luck to hit for a high average. His defensive metrics were great as always with 8 runs saved in center. Almora should see his overall numbers remain at relatively the same numbers they were last year, though hopefully his halves aren't as extreme as last years.
Jason Heyward, 29, 2018 was Heywards best hitting season as a Cubs, and although it is still below average it gives some cause for optimism. Heyward his a respectable .270/.335/.395 last year including a walk off grand slam against the Phillies. One of Heywards more impressive traits is his ability to avoid strikeouts as he struck out just 12.3% of the time and only swung and missed just 16.7%.. Although his defense wasn't as good as it has been, he was still a very solid defender out in right with an 89% catch rate and 3 defensive runs saved. If Heyward can keep up his current offensive trajectory and still be the same defender than he is an incredibly valuable player for the Cubs, and even if the offense doesn't improve but the defense stays the same he provides a lot of value.
Ben Zobrist, 38, despite his advanced age he was excellent with the bat in 2018 on the heels of a disappointing and injury filled 2017. He hit .305/.378/.440 with a very good 10.6% walk rate and 11.5% strikeout rate. Zobrist is entering the last year of his contract and it's natural to expect some regression considering both his high BABIP (.331) and his higher than career average hard hit rate (35.5%). His biggest asset is his versatility as he can play both the infield and outfield at an above average level. He would be a big beneficiary of the NL potentially adding the DH as he could play there and potentially keep him more fresh throughout the season. Either way he probably won't be the hitter he was in 2018, but he is still a solid, versatile player that is exactly what this team needs.
