The Cubs have a problem that all major league teams would all love to have: too many talented position players, but not enough positions to play them in. It's a good problem to have, but ultimately it leaves someone as the odd man out.
Ian Happ is the one that has been in rumors the most, especially for Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom, but after a slow start he has been crushing the ball with a .253/.375/.445 line. The strikeouts for Happ are an issue as he has struck out at a 35% clip, however, although the samples sizes are small he has brought down his strikeout rate through each month of the season. Happ has been the beneficiary of some good luck with a BABIP of .390 that most likely will go down. One key value that Happ provides is that he can play multiple positions as he has seen time at all three outfield spots along with seeing time at third base. The Cubs might be preparing Happ to fill the role as a Ben Zobrist-type super utility player after Zobrist's contract expires after the 2019 season. Happ is just 23 and still has a lot of potential and if he is traded the return would have to be significant for the Cubs
Addison Russell is another name that was brought up in rumors a few months ago when he was struggling and Manny Machado was still available. Russell is just 24 has had an alright season with the bat with a .264/.335/.374 line which adds up to a 92 wRC+. His 9.3% walk rate along with a 20.3% strikeout rate is pretty solid and shows he at least has good plate discipline and bat control. Russell's lack of power is concerning with just a .110 ISO and a 5.7% HR/FB rate, which may be due to a decrease in both exit velocity and launch angle and a significant decrease in his hard hit percentage. What Russell doesn't provide on offense he certainly does on defense as he is a top tier defensive shortstop with an 11 defensive runs saved and a 2.4 ultimate zone rating. I think Russell is ultimately unlikely to be traded as he provides a ton of defensive value at a premier position and from the outside his offensive issues seem easy to fix.
David Bote initially came up when Ben Zobrist went down in April with some minor back tightness and although he has shuffled up and down between Iowa and Chicago he has done nothing but hit. He has put up a .327/.422/.519 line including a game-tying two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth last Thursday off the Diamonbacks. Like Happ, Bote has benefited from some significant good luck with a .395 BABIP and a most likely unsustainable 95.4 MPH exit velocity and 57.5 hard hit percentage. One thing Bote is really lacking is that he doesn't have the versatility Ian Happ has and his primary position is already locked down by former NL MVP Kris Bryant, who is currently on the disabled list. Ultimately I think Bote is the most likely to be traded as he is the oldest of the trio, and although he won't necessarily provide the return that Ian Happ could provide I think teams would be much more willing to meet the demands for Bote than for Happ. However, with the Cubs current injury situation it is highly unlikely a deal for Bote would happen in-season.
The Cubs are in a tough spot, all three players could provide significant value to the team there ultimately isn't enough playing time to go around when the team is healthy. If the Cubs can use one of these players to make a significant upgrade to their shaky pitching staff I think it would ultimately be the best for the Cubs competitive window.
Monday, July 30, 2018
Sunday, November 6, 2016
Cubs decline 2017 option on Jason Hammel
The Chicago Cubs have declined their team option on RHP Jason Hammel, making him a free agent.
Hammel, 32, had an option that would've given him a $12 million dollar salary, but instead he will receive a $2 million dollar buyout.
Hammel had a decent year with a 3.83 ERA in 166.2 innings pitched, but a spike in the home run rate led to the Cubs leaving him off of their postseason roster. His 13.8 HR/FB rate ranked among the bottom in starting pitchers and his left on base percentage of 76 percent, well above his career average, suggested even more regression was due.
Hammel, like last year, pitched very well in the first half 3.46 ERA in 17 starts and 79-30 K-BB rate, but in the second half his numbers ballooned to a 4.35 ERA in only 13 starts and 11 home runs given up in just 70 innings.
Despite his struggles with the long ball Hammel was still mostly effective and it is a surprise to see his option decline especially since this years starting pitching free agency class is pretty weak, but it's possible the trade market could open up on that end.
Hammel, 32, had an option that would've given him a $12 million dollar salary, but instead he will receive a $2 million dollar buyout.
Hammel had a decent year with a 3.83 ERA in 166.2 innings pitched, but a spike in the home run rate led to the Cubs leaving him off of their postseason roster. His 13.8 HR/FB rate ranked among the bottom in starting pitchers and his left on base percentage of 76 percent, well above his career average, suggested even more regression was due.
Hammel, like last year, pitched very well in the first half 3.46 ERA in 17 starts and 79-30 K-BB rate, but in the second half his numbers ballooned to a 4.35 ERA in only 13 starts and 11 home runs given up in just 70 innings.
Despite his struggles with the long ball Hammel was still mostly effective and it is a surprise to see his option decline especially since this years starting pitching free agency class is pretty weak, but it's possible the trade market could open up on that end.
Saturday, November 5, 2016
The Cubs should re-sign Dexter Fowler
As the hangover from the celebration of the Cubs first World Series title begins to somewhat die down, it becomes time for the Cubs to look ahead on next years ball club as they try to repeat as World Series champions.
The Cubs have several free agents including most notably lead off hitter Dexter Fowler and stud closer Aroldis Chapman. While Chapman will most likely sign with a different team the Cubs have a difficult choice with Dexter Fowler
Fowler will most likely be tenured a qualifying offer which means either accept a one-year $17.2 million dollar deal or go into free agency and cost the team that signs him either a first or second round pick depending on the draft position.
At first glance it doesn't really make sense for the Cubs to re-sign Fowler they already have a very serious outfield glut with Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr, and Jorge Soler all projected to play major roles plus with a full strength Kyle Schwarber being able to play the field and Matt Szczur emerging as a quality reserve player.
But Fowler provided significant value to this team with a .276/.393/.447 line including an incredibly impressive .390/.483/.720 line when leading off the game. His bat would be extremely hard to replace, especially with Soler and Heyward being huge question marks on offense.
Fowler historically hasn't been highly regarded defensively to say the least, but in 2016 he made major strides on defense which he said was due to an effort to play deeper in the outfield. His defensive runs saved of 1 isn't particularly impressive but when you compare it to last years -12 his defense looks a lot more impressive.
This offseason will probably be Fowlers last chance to get a big score in the free agent market as he is already 30 and interest is likely to be heavy with teams like the Indians, Cardinals, and Blue Jays all being potential options.
Fowler would most likely look for a 3-4 year deal around $18-20 million a year after being such a huge cog at the top of the order for the Cubs he will get a chance to earn top dollar for a team looking for offense.
If the Cubs do not re-sign Fowler they will have to rely on players who haven't really proven themselves in the outfield.
Albert Almora Jr. is probably the number one candidate to replace Fowler if he chooses to leave and he impressed in a small sample size hitting .277/.308/.455 including scoring the first run that helped the Cubs clinch their first World Series title in 108 years.
What sets Almora apart is his defense and while he doesn't necessarily have the strongest arm he is able to cover a ton of ground and had a UZR of 2.5 in 193 innings in center field. He could also move to a corner outfield role which would allow Jason Heyward and his strong arm to patrol center field.
Heyward struggled massively on offense this year as he ranked as one of the worst offensive players in all of baseball with a .631 OPS in 592 plate appearances, but on defense he was a star with 14 defensive runs saved in right field.
Heyward did suffer from some bad luck this year with a .266 BABIP which is well below his career average of .30, but it seemed that so much of the time he put the ball in play it wasn't hit hard and his soft hit rate of 27 percent is his highest since 2011 and his hard hit rate of 26.4 percent is tied with 2014 for the lowest in his career.
If the Cubs do trade an outfielder it would likely involve Jorge Soler for young pitching. Soler had an alright year hitting .238/.333/.436 with 12 home runs, but only played in 86 games as he missed almost two months with a left oblique strain. Staying healthy has been an issue for Soler as he missed significant time last year dealing with injuries.
However, a trade for Soler is unlikely at this time because his value is probably at an all time low and the Cubs would like to see him build some value so they could get a better player
Going back to Fowler, he was the most well rounded outfielder on the Cubs this year with the struggles of Heyward. He provided so much value to the team with his on-base skills and his ability to get the game started with a bang and with the Cubs questions marks in the outfield, re-signing Fowler should be a priority.
He is very likely to get a multi-year deal this offseason and whether it be for the Cubs or someone else he is likely to anchor the top of a teams lineup for the next few years.
The Cubs have several free agents including most notably lead off hitter Dexter Fowler and stud closer Aroldis Chapman. While Chapman will most likely sign with a different team the Cubs have a difficult choice with Dexter Fowler
Fowler will most likely be tenured a qualifying offer which means either accept a one-year $17.2 million dollar deal or go into free agency and cost the team that signs him either a first or second round pick depending on the draft position.
At first glance it doesn't really make sense for the Cubs to re-sign Fowler they already have a very serious outfield glut with Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr, and Jorge Soler all projected to play major roles plus with a full strength Kyle Schwarber being able to play the field and Matt Szczur emerging as a quality reserve player.
But Fowler provided significant value to this team with a .276/.393/.447 line including an incredibly impressive .390/.483/.720 line when leading off the game. His bat would be extremely hard to replace, especially with Soler and Heyward being huge question marks on offense.
Fowler historically hasn't been highly regarded defensively to say the least, but in 2016 he made major strides on defense which he said was due to an effort to play deeper in the outfield. His defensive runs saved of 1 isn't particularly impressive but when you compare it to last years -12 his defense looks a lot more impressive.
This offseason will probably be Fowlers last chance to get a big score in the free agent market as he is already 30 and interest is likely to be heavy with teams like the Indians, Cardinals, and Blue Jays all being potential options.
Fowler would most likely look for a 3-4 year deal around $18-20 million a year after being such a huge cog at the top of the order for the Cubs he will get a chance to earn top dollar for a team looking for offense.
If the Cubs do not re-sign Fowler they will have to rely on players who haven't really proven themselves in the outfield.
Albert Almora Jr. is probably the number one candidate to replace Fowler if he chooses to leave and he impressed in a small sample size hitting .277/.308/.455 including scoring the first run that helped the Cubs clinch their first World Series title in 108 years.
What sets Almora apart is his defense and while he doesn't necessarily have the strongest arm he is able to cover a ton of ground and had a UZR of 2.5 in 193 innings in center field. He could also move to a corner outfield role which would allow Jason Heyward and his strong arm to patrol center field.
Heyward struggled massively on offense this year as he ranked as one of the worst offensive players in all of baseball with a .631 OPS in 592 plate appearances, but on defense he was a star with 14 defensive runs saved in right field.
Heyward did suffer from some bad luck this year with a .266 BABIP which is well below his career average of .30, but it seemed that so much of the time he put the ball in play it wasn't hit hard and his soft hit rate of 27 percent is his highest since 2011 and his hard hit rate of 26.4 percent is tied with 2014 for the lowest in his career.
If the Cubs do trade an outfielder it would likely involve Jorge Soler for young pitching. Soler had an alright year hitting .238/.333/.436 with 12 home runs, but only played in 86 games as he missed almost two months with a left oblique strain. Staying healthy has been an issue for Soler as he missed significant time last year dealing with injuries.
However, a trade for Soler is unlikely at this time because his value is probably at an all time low and the Cubs would like to see him build some value so they could get a better player
Going back to Fowler, he was the most well rounded outfielder on the Cubs this year with the struggles of Heyward. He provided so much value to the team with his on-base skills and his ability to get the game started with a bang and with the Cubs questions marks in the outfield, re-signing Fowler should be a priority.
He is very likely to get a multi-year deal this offseason and whether it be for the Cubs or someone else he is likely to anchor the top of a teams lineup for the next few years.
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Cubs send Dan Vogelbach and Paul Blackburn to Mariners for Mike Montgomery and unknown AAA pitcher.
Tim Kurkjian just reported on ESPN according to Buster Olney that the Chicago Cubs are closing in on a trade with the Seattle Mariners. Olney adds that the Cubs have been looking at Mariners lefty reliever Mike Montgomery.
Update #1: According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports the Cubs would send 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach to the Mariners if a trade is completed
Vogelbach, 23, is enjoying a breakout season for the Iowa Cubs hitting an impressive .318/.425/.548 with 16 home runs, but didn't have a future in Chicago because the Cubs already had Anthony Rizzo at first base and Vogelbach didn't play any other position.
Meanwhile Montgomery has appeared in 32 games for the Mariners this season with two of them being starts. He has pitched to a 2.34 ERA in 61.2 innings pitched with a 7.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Most of his success has come against lefties with a .164/.269/.254 line against them.
Update 3: Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has confirmed the deal
Update 4: Jon Morosi of Fox Sports and Rosenthal both report that the deal could expand.
Update 5: Rosenthal says the Cubs are sending RHP prospect Paul Blackburn to the Mariners as well and the Cubs will get a Triple-A pitcher in return.
Blackburn, 22, has pitched well for the Tennessee Smokies this year with a 3.17 ERA in 18 starts and 102.1 innings pitched with a WHIP of 1.19. Although he projected as more of a backend starting pitcher he could have more value in the pitchers friendly Safeco Field.
Update 6: Bob Nightengale reports that the AAA pitcher the Cubs are getting is 26-year old right hander Jordan Pries. He has pitched more as a swingman for the AAA Tacoma Rainers this year making three starts and four relief appearances. In his starts he has pitched 6 innings in each of the starts with an ERA of exactly 2 giving up 16 hits and striking out 16 while walking five.
Update #1: According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports the Cubs would send 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach to the Mariners if a trade is completed
Vogelbach, 23, is enjoying a breakout season for the Iowa Cubs hitting an impressive .318/.425/.548 with 16 home runs, but didn't have a future in Chicago because the Cubs already had Anthony Rizzo at first base and Vogelbach didn't play any other position.
Meanwhile Montgomery has appeared in 32 games for the Mariners this season with two of them being starts. He has pitched to a 2.34 ERA in 61.2 innings pitched with a 7.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Most of his success has come against lefties with a .164/.269/.254 line against them.
Update 3: Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has confirmed the deal
Update 4: Jon Morosi of Fox Sports and Rosenthal both report that the deal could expand.
Update 5: Rosenthal says the Cubs are sending RHP prospect Paul Blackburn to the Mariners as well and the Cubs will get a Triple-A pitcher in return.
Blackburn, 22, has pitched well for the Tennessee Smokies this year with a 3.17 ERA in 18 starts and 102.1 innings pitched with a WHIP of 1.19. Although he projected as more of a backend starting pitcher he could have more value in the pitchers friendly Safeco Field.
Update 6: Bob Nightengale reports that the AAA pitcher the Cubs are getting is 26-year old right hander Jordan Pries. He has pitched more as a swingman for the AAA Tacoma Rainers this year making three starts and four relief appearances. In his starts he has pitched 6 innings in each of the starts with an ERA of exactly 2 giving up 16 hits and striking out 16 while walking five.
Cubs send Dan Vogelbach to Mariners for Mike Montgomery
Tim Kurkjian just reported on ESPN according to Buster Olney that the Chicago Cubs are closing in on a trade with the Seattle Mariners. Olney adds that the Cubs have been looking at Mariners lefty reliever Mike Montgomery.
Update #1: According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports the Cubs would send 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach to the Mariners if a trade is completed
Vogelbach, 23, is enjoying a breakout season for the Iowa Cubs hitting an impressive .318/.425/.548 with 16 home runs, but didn't have a future in Chicago because the Cubs already had Anthony Rizzo at first base and Vogelbach didn't play any other position.
Meanwhile Montgomery has appeared in 32 games for the Mariners this season with two of them being starts. He has pitched to a 2.34 ERA in 61.2 innings pitched with a 7.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Most of his success has come against lefties with a .164/.269/.254 line against them.
Update 3: Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has confirmed the deal
Update #1: According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports the Cubs would send 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach to the Mariners if a trade is completed
Vogelbach, 23, is enjoying a breakout season for the Iowa Cubs hitting an impressive .318/.425/.548 with 16 home runs, but didn't have a future in Chicago because the Cubs already had Anthony Rizzo at first base and Vogelbach didn't play any other position.
Meanwhile Montgomery has appeared in 32 games for the Mariners this season with two of them being starts. He has pitched to a 2.34 ERA in 61.2 innings pitched with a 7.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Most of his success has come against lefties with a .164/.269/.254 line against them.
Update 3: Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has confirmed the deal
Sunday, July 3, 2016
Mets finish sweep of Cubs
The New York Mets finished a four games sweep of the struggling Chicago Cubs at Citi Field with a final score of 14-3. The Mets poured it on the Cubs early on and rode some great pitching by young flamethrower Noah Syndergaard.
Jeimer Candelario made his major league debut for the Chicago Cubs starting at third base and struck out on three pitches in his first two at bats but in the seventh inning he collected his first major league hit with a single off of Syndergaard.
The day got off to a good start for the Cubs in the first inning Jason Heyward doubled with one out and Rizzo eventually drove him in with an RBI single. But in the bottom of the frame Curtis Granderson, with a lifetime .223/.296/.397 line against lefties tied the game at one with a home run off of Jon Lester right after a pitch that should've been a called strike three.
The game quickly fell apart for the Cubs as Wilmer Flores led off the second with a home run for the Mets, his first of a remarkable six hits in the game. Rene Rivera hit a home run to make it 4-1, then Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, and Wilmer Flores hit four straight RBI singles to make it 8-1 finally knocking Lester out of the game.
The Cubs bullpen struggled today with Spencer Patton (3 ER) and Joel Peralta (2 ER) both allowing the Mets to pour it on and bottom of the seventh with two outs Cubs manager Joe Maddon put in catcher Miguel Montero to pitch and he threw an inning and a third giving up one run on four hits.
Wilson Contreras led off the ninth with his fourth home run of the year off of Logan Verrett and Javier Baez later scored on a wild pitch to conclude the scoring.
The game wasn't necessarily all negatives for the Cubs as Javier Baez had a good 3-4 game with a double but was picked off on a play that should've been called a balk, Albert Almora Jr went 2-2 and Addison Russell went 2-3.
Jeimer Candelario made his major league debut for the Chicago Cubs starting at third base and struck out on three pitches in his first two at bats but in the seventh inning he collected his first major league hit with a single off of Syndergaard.
The day got off to a good start for the Cubs in the first inning Jason Heyward doubled with one out and Rizzo eventually drove him in with an RBI single. But in the bottom of the frame Curtis Granderson, with a lifetime .223/.296/.397 line against lefties tied the game at one with a home run off of Jon Lester right after a pitch that should've been a called strike three.
The game quickly fell apart for the Cubs as Wilmer Flores led off the second with a home run for the Mets, his first of a remarkable six hits in the game. Rene Rivera hit a home run to make it 4-1, then Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, and Wilmer Flores hit four straight RBI singles to make it 8-1 finally knocking Lester out of the game.
The Cubs bullpen struggled today with Spencer Patton (3 ER) and Joel Peralta (2 ER) both allowing the Mets to pour it on and bottom of the seventh with two outs Cubs manager Joe Maddon put in catcher Miguel Montero to pitch and he threw an inning and a third giving up one run on four hits.
Wilson Contreras led off the ninth with his fourth home run of the year off of Logan Verrett and Javier Baez later scored on a wild pitch to conclude the scoring.
The game wasn't necessarily all negatives for the Cubs as Javier Baez had a good 3-4 game with a double but was picked off on a play that should've been called a balk, Albert Almora Jr went 2-2 and Addison Russell went 2-3.
Saturday, May 14, 2016
Cubs activate Miguel Montero, DFA Ryan Kalish
The Chicago Cubs made a move today activating Miguel Montero from the disabled list, and in a corresponding move designated reserve outfielder Ryan Kalish for assignment.
Montero has been on the shelf since April 28th with lower back stiffness, but has been on a rehab assignment with AAA Iowa for the past few days going just 2-10 with three strikeouts.
Overall Montero had gotten off to a slow start in 2016 hitting just .208/.316/.333 in his 57 plate appearances before going on the DL, but his presence is still a boost for the Cubs as he is well regarded as a good defensive catcher with great pitch framing skills.
Kalish was a late signing by the Cubs as he joined the team right before they started playing Spring Training games. He had his contract purchased by the Cubs when Matt Szczur went on the disabled list after hitting .368/.471/.509 in 70 plate appearances for the Iowa Cubs.
Dumping Kalish for Montero is an interesting move because the Cubs already have catchers David Ross and Tim Federowicz on the active roster, but they have a ton of positional flexibility on the roster with Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Tommy La Stella, and Ben Zobrist so they probably figured they could role with three catchers.
Montero has been on the shelf since April 28th with lower back stiffness, but has been on a rehab assignment with AAA Iowa for the past few days going just 2-10 with three strikeouts.
Overall Montero had gotten off to a slow start in 2016 hitting just .208/.316/.333 in his 57 plate appearances before going on the DL, but his presence is still a boost for the Cubs as he is well regarded as a good defensive catcher with great pitch framing skills.
Kalish was a late signing by the Cubs as he joined the team right before they started playing Spring Training games. He had his contract purchased by the Cubs when Matt Szczur went on the disabled list after hitting .368/.471/.509 in 70 plate appearances for the Iowa Cubs.
Dumping Kalish for Montero is an interesting move because the Cubs already have catchers David Ross and Tim Federowicz on the active roster, but they have a ton of positional flexibility on the roster with Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Tommy La Stella, and Ben Zobrist so they probably figured they could role with three catchers.
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