He's trying to follow up a rough 2019 campaign where he posted a 4.54 ERA in 21 starts. He struggled significantly with the long ball allowing 23 long balls in 117 innings pitched while striking out 105 and walking 37. He also made 10 starts for their AAA team with a 3.86 ERA in 51.1 innings allowing just two home runs while striking out 45 and walking 17.
He made two starts for the Braves in the postseason with his first start being seven shutout innings allowing just three hits and striking out seven St. Louis Cardinals hitters. His second start, however, was a complete nightmare as he got just one out while giving up six earned runs on three hits and three walks. The Braves would lose that game and the series ending their season.
Foltynewicz, just 28, was an All-Star as recently as 2018 when he posted a 2.85 ERA (3.37 FIP) in 31 starts and 183 innings pitched. He was the ace of a Braves team that won 90 games and appeared in the postseason for the first time since 2013.
A pitcher who was this good just a few seasons ago doesn't suddenly become available just like that. but does that mean the Cubs should take a look at him?
The first thing to talk about is his velocity. In 2018 his four-seam fastball averaged a blazing 96.3 MPH, but in 2019 it had dropped to 94.8 MPH, and in his only start this year it averaged a very concerning 90.9 MPH.
You can see a similar trend in all his pitches. His sinker went from 96.5 MPH to 89.9 MPH, his slider went from 86.7 to 79.5 MPH, and his curveball went from 80 to 74.6 MPH. A velocity loss like that is extremely concerning because the slower your pitches are the opposing batters chance to put the ball in play increase significantly.
It's hard to put too much weight on the 2020 data because the sample size is too small, but the numbers speak for themselves when you look at his plate discipline and batted ball data. His swing and miss percentage (Whiff%) went from 25.4 percent in 2018 to 23.5 percent in 2019 to just 14.3 percent this year. You can see it in his strikeout rate as well as he went from striking out 27.2 percent of hitters in 2018 to striking out just 21.4 percent in 2019.
He gave up a lot more hard contact as his solid contact percentage went from 5.3 percent in 2018 to 6.9 percent in 2019. That's shows in the batted ball data where is line drive percentage jumped from 22.9 to 23.9 percent while his fly ball rate jumped from 24 to 28.8 percent and his ground ball rate went from 43.7 to 39.2 percent.
He doesn't have a significant injury history, he missed a week in 2018 with right triceps tendinitis, and he missed around a month in 2019 with a bone spur in his right elbow. It's unknown if these can be directly traced to his velocity loss.
It would be hard to find a spot for him on this Cubs team right now. They just had an excellent first turn through the rotation and with Jose Quintana set to return fairly soon from injury it would be even harder to fit him in the 2020 picture.
With the shortened season it becomes much more risky to take a chance on a bounce back candidate like this, but if he becomes available and the Cubs have an opportunity to sign him to a deal that focuses on 2021 that would be ideal to give him time to gain his velocity back.
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