Cubs sign interesting bounceback candidate with Trevor Williams

 In a move to shake up their shaky starting pitching the Cubs have signed former Pirates RHP Trevor Williams according to Evan Altman of the Cubs Insider. The deal is pending a physical, but once completed will pay Williams $2.5 million according to Jon Heyman.

Williams, 28, opted for free agency after being designated for assignment by the Pirates after an incredibly disappointing 2020 season. In 11 starts Williams allowed a 6.18 ERA in 55.1 innings pitched allowing an alarming 15 home runs along with 49 strikeouts and 21 walks. Blaming the shortened season would be fair, but he also had a disappointing 2019 campaign as well posting a 5.38 ERA while showing the same issue with home runs and being very hittable in general.

However, Williams has had a success as recently as 2018 where he threw 170.2 innings with a 3.11 ERA, and while he only struck out 126 batters with a below average whiff rate, he did do a good job of limiting hard contact ranking as among the best pitchers in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage. 

Like the rest of his potential rotation mates Williams is not exactly a hard-thrower with a four-seam fastball that averages 91.5 MPH that he throws 51 percent of the time. He works off the fastball with a slider in the lower 80s and a mid-80s change-up. He also throws a sinker and curveball sparingly. 

What's interesting is that in his breakout 2018 season he actually used the sinker as his secondary pitch and the slider was used just 15 percent of the time, but his sinker was probably his worst pitch, while his slider was the most used put-away pitch and induced a whiff nearly 30 percent of the time. Starting in 2019 he begun using the slider much more and the sinker significantly less to mixed results.

 In 2020 the slider was hit around to a .348 batting average against, but it's worth noting that Baseball Savant says the expected batting average against the pitch was .232. When batters made contact they only hit it at a 85.6 MPH rate with a launch angle of only 5. Despite the struggles with the pitch he also induced a whiff 39.8 percent of the time. If he can get his slider right it has the potential to be an excellent put-away pitch for Williams.

This is a really shrewd move going for an upside guy like Williams. The rotation still has question marks, but if Williams can bounceback he will be a key member of the rotation. What's even better is that he has one more season of arbitration eligibility left so if the Cubs like what they see he will be around for another season, but if they don't they will be able to cut ties.

Cubs add OF Joc Pederson

In a bit of a surprise due to the Cubs alleged money issues the team has signed outfielder Joc Pederson to one year deal worth $7 million. The deal was initially reported by Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Joel Sherman provided the financial details along with the inclusion of a 2022 mutual option.

Pederson struggled through a rough 2020 season with a .190/.285/.397 line along with seven home runs in 138 plate appearances, but he was not nearly the only player that struggled in the weird 2020 season so it's fair to give him a pass especially given his previous track record. He is coming off a two year stretch between 2018-19 where he hit .249/.331/.530 along with an impressive 61 home runs in 957 plate appearances. 

He is a very similar hitter to Kyle Schwarber, but one thing that he is significantly better at is making contact. Although 2020 saw Pedersons zone contact rate drop his career rate of 79 percent is still better than Schwarbers 76 percent mark. You can see the difference in strikeout rate as well, with Pederson striking out 24.2 percent of the time in his career with 132 per 162 games, while Schwarber has struck out 28 percent of the time with 174 per 162 games.

If there is one thing Pederson cannot do it is hit lefties. He has accumulated just 385 plate appearances against southpaws in his career and has managed to hit just .191/.266/.310 with only nine home runs and 111 strikeouts compared to 36 walks. Plain and simple, he sucks against lefties, and it's possible he finds himself in a platoon with Phil Ervin (who has an .811 OPS against lefties). It is interesting that Jeff Passan mentions Pedersons opportunity to play everyday which suggests that he could at least get a chance with lefties, but based on his track record any experiment like that will not last long.

Defensively, Pederson will most likely spend most of his time in left field, but he has also played most of his big league innings in center field so it's definitely a possibility to see him there as well. He won't wow you on defense with decent range, but he lacks the arm that Schwarber had. A Pederson-Happ-Heyward outfield has a lot of promise, but there is still some work the Cubs can do to add some depth.

The Cubs roster still has a lot of holes, especially in pitching, but it's worth noting that David Kaplan tweeted that Tom Ricketts recently increased the player payroll. He mentions how the Cubs view the division as "winnable", which makes sense when you consider that no one in the NL Central has made any significant improvements and teams like the Pirates and Reds have both lost key contributors. The Cubs still have some very good players, especially on offense, and adding Pederson gives them a very legit power bat to replace Kyle Schwarber.

Cubs sign RHP Kohl Stewart

 The Chicago Cubs announced today that they have signed RHP Kohl Stewart to a major league contract for the 2021 season.

The former fourth overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft, Stewart chose to opt out of the 2020 season and was granted free agency by the Baltimore Orioles at the conclusion of the season.

Stewart, 26, has made 17 appearances (six starts) between 2018-19 for the Minnesota Twins. In those appearances he has posted a 4.79 ERA in 62 innings, he was very hittable as hitters collected 63 hits (including 6 home runs) while he struck out just 34 batters.

The sample size is limited, but he has shown much more success as a reliever with a 3.48 ERA across 33.2 innings pitched along with striking out 20, although that does come with a concerning 1.67 K-BB ratio.

He's not going to blow away batters, but his 92 MPH fastball would actually make him one of the harder throwers in the Cubs rotation especially compared to Kyle Hendricks (87 MPH), Zach Davies (88 MPH), and Alec Mills (90 MPH).

He throws the fastball about 55 percent of the time along with a slider that he uses about 35 percent of the time, he also throws a curveball and change-up, but they are both thrown less than ten percent of the time to not exactly inspiring results.

It seems like his future is destined for the bullpen with his lack of an effective third pitch, but the Cubs are incredibly starved for pitching and he is young enough that there is still the possibility that there is some untapped potential that can be unlocked.

Cubs to sign Austin Romine

 The Cubs added to their catching depth today as they have inked veteran catcher Austin Romine to a one-year deal according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the deal is pending a physical. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports the deal is worth $1.5 million.

With the trade of Victor Caratini, a backup catcher was a pressing concern for the Cubs and after missing out on Jason Castro they make a solid signing with Romine.

Romine, 31, struggled with the bat for the Tigers in 2020 hitting just .238/.259/.323 in 37 games and 135 plate appearances. It's worth noting that he was hitting .291/.308/.418 going into September, but after a knee injury that required him to miss a few games he came back and went just 8-51 with only one extra base hit and two talks to 24 strikeouts,

Although he doesn't have much of a reputation as a hitter, he has a track record as a pretty solid defender as he saved a projected 8 runs from his pitch framing between 2017-19 and getting around 50 percent of the pitches he received called for a strike.

The veteran catcher will never be known as much of a hitter with a lifetime .639 OPS and wRC+ of 54, but he is a pretty solid defensive catcher which will be important especially given all the question marks surrounding the Cubs pitching as of now.

Despite all the question marks surrounding the Cubs future, they are actually in a really good position when it comes to the catching position. Willson Contreras is a top-5 catcher in all of baseball and Romine is a solid back up, but they also got Miguel Amaya who has been ranked as a top 100 prospect in all of baseball, and interesting names such as Ethan Hearn in the lower minors.

Yu Darvish has been traded

 In a move that will no doubt upset many Cubs fans the Cubs have traded 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish and his personal catcher Victor Caratini to the San Diego Padres in exchange for 27-year old RHP Zach Davies and four other young prospects according to Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic.

Darvish was nothing short of amazing in 2020 finishing as the runner-up to Trevor Bauer for the NL Cy Young award. In 76 innings Darvish posted a 2.01 ERA striking out an impressive 93 while walking just 17. Darvish signed a six-year contract prior to the 2018 season and had become a fan favorite thanks in part to his excellent pitching after a rocky start, but also due to his interactions with fans on social media. As good as he was, he clearly didn't fit the Cubs long-term plans and they felt they could "maximize" value, although clearly the front office and the fans have a different perception of his value.

Headed to the Padres is Victor Caratini as well, he struggled significantly with the bat hitting just .241/.333/.328 in 132 plate appearances showing very little power along with ranking in the 34th percentile for exit velocity and the seventh percentile for expected slugging. He had developed quite a rapport behind the dish with Darvish and with the Cubs depth at catching it's no surprised to see him moved. Caratini did post a 108 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 2019, so it's not like he's been unable to hit at the big league level.

For the Cubs they are getting a nice pitcher back in Zach Davies who posted a 2.73 ERA in 69.1 innings for the Friars in 2020. He's a similarly-molded pitcher to Kyle Hendricks with a fastball that averages only 88 MPH along with good control numbers. He has had consistent success limiting hard contact, but the Cubs only have control over him through this upcoming season and he is projected to earn anywhere between $6.3-$10.6 million according to MLBTR.

The four prospects the Cubs are getting: 17-year old SS Reginald Preciado, 20-year old SS Yeison Santana, 18-year old OF Owen Caissie, and 18-year old OF Ismael Mena are all considered lottery tickers as none of them have a single at-bat above rookie ball and two of them (Caissie and Mena) don't have any sort of professional statistics recorded.

On the surface this looks like an incredibly underwhelming haul for the Cubs as Preciado ranks as the highest prospect traded and he ranked just 11th on MLB.coms Top 30 Padres prospects, but it is worth noting that the Padres system is considered incredibly deep and they have a lot of riches to deal from.

Despite that it is incredibly disappointing that the Cubs are getting just their 11th, 13th, 15th, and 16th prospects. It was assumed from the outset that their top two prospects MacKanzie Gore and CJ Abrams were not part of the deal, but #4 prospect catcher Luis Campusano was rumored to be a part of the deal so it is very disappointing to not see him be a part of the final deal.

It seems like the Cubs are prioritizing quantity over quality in this one, which is only great if it pays off. They are sacrificing their chance to get a much more proven prospect to take a chance on hitting a home run on a lower level guy This also all but confirms the Cubs will likely be going into another long rebuilding stretch as all of these prospects they acquired are years off the big league level and will require a lot of development.

Cubs sign Jonathan Holder

The Cubs have announced they have signed RHP Jonathan Holder to a non-guaranteed contract that will pay him $750,000 if he makes the big league roster according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. . Holder, 27, has struggled the past two seasons, but has had success in the past.

Holder was non-tendered by the Yankees after posting a 4.98 ERA in 18 appearances while striking out just 14 batters in 21.2 innings pitched compared to 11 walks. He just plain and simply didn't fool anyone as batters hit .281/.356/.449 against him. 

It's worth noting that his numbers are inflated thanks to a dreadful final three appearances of the season. In his first 16 appearances he posted a 2.08 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 17.1 innings pitched compared to eight walks, but in his final three appearances he allowed eight runs in four and a third innings striking out none and walking three while giving up a pair of home runs.

Hitters just plain and simple made more contact against him and stopped chasing pitches out of the zone. Even before his end of season collapse his strikeout numbers were down and walks were up. His zone contact rate jumped from 80 percent to 85.4 percent and his chase percentage dropped from 31.1 percent to 26.1 percent. His velocity was basically the same and he even saw a sharp increase in his groundball rate, so what gives?

Holder struggled in 2019 as well with a 6.31 ERA in 34 appearances and 41.1 innings pitched, but he also posted by far the best strikeout numbers of his career along with keeping his walk numbers in line with his career norms. His struggles can be partly explained by a huge spike in his home run rate and a horrifically unlucky 53.6 left on base percentage.

He does have a history of success in the past as he posted a 3.42 ERA in 97 appearances split between the 2017-18 season for the Yankees with his best trait being his control as he walked just 27 batters in 105.1 innings pitched. 

Overall its a great no-risk move for the Cubs, they're getting a young, first-year arbitration eligible reliever that has had success in the past on a very cheap contract. Now the Cubs will get a chance to look under the hood and see if they can reunlock the potential he's shown in the past.

Where does Jackie Bradley Jr. fit in the Cubs plans?

 A report from Jon Morosi of Fox Sports connected the Chicago Cubs to free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. It feels like the first time in a while the Cubs have been connected to a upper tier free agent, but how much of a fit is he for the Cubs right now?

Bradley, 30, is coming off his best offensive season since 2016 posting a .814 OPS in 55 games and 217 plate appearances he also hit 7 home runs and overall that translated to a 119 wRC+. Bradleys success comes from a notable improvement in his contact rate that saw him make contact in the zone 77.6 of the time compared to 73.8 percent of the time in 2019. His line drive rate of 23.6 percent was still below league average, and he saw a sharp increase in his ground ball rate to the highest of his career. His offensive success seems to be fueled by a career high .343 BABIP that is bound to come down in 2021.

His average exit velocity is on a three year downward trend and he is coming off a three year stretch of a .726, .717,. and .738 OPS. The improvements in his contact rate shouldn't be ignored, but it's not like he was barreling the ball consistently, his hard hit percentage was actually the lowest of his career and his .299 xwOBA suggested that a lot of his success was smoke and mirrors.

Despite the questions on offense, there is zero doubt on his defensive abilities as he is an absolutely elite center fielder with seven outs above average in the shortened season and he peaked at 15 during the 2017 season. He has a ton of range thanks to his speed, and would be am upgrade over Ian Happ, who would most likely move to left field if the Cubs do sign Bradley

He also turns 31 in April of 2021 and has seen a small but slightly noticeable drop in his sprint speed, which is bound to get even worse as he gets older. Considering he plays a position that requires a ton of range and athleticism it's hard to see the Cubs wanting to commit to him on more than a two or three year deal. A short team deal would make sense for the Cubs considering they are in a bit of a transitional period with several core players becoming free agents after both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

Overall it's hard to see the Cubs making a strong push to sign Bradley Jr., unless they can get him on a modestly cheap and short contract. The Cubs do have a need in the outfield, but it's also fair to question whether he can repeat his offensive success. The defense would most likely be as good as ever, but he is also at an age where you start to wonder how long that is going to last.