Monday, December 28, 2020

Yu Darvish has been traded

 In a move that will no doubt upset many Cubs fans the Cubs have traded 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish and his personal catcher Victor Caratini to the San Diego Padres in exchange for 27-year old RHP Zach Davies and four other young prospects according to Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic.

Darvish was nothing short of amazing in 2020 finishing as the runner-up to Trevor Bauer for the NL Cy Young award. In 76 innings Darvish posted a 2.01 ERA striking out an impressive 93 while walking just 17. Darvish signed a six-year contract prior to the 2018 season and had become a fan favorite thanks in part to his excellent pitching after a rocky start, but also due to his interactions with fans on social media. As good as he was, he clearly didn't fit the Cubs long-term plans and they felt they could "maximize" value, although clearly the front office and the fans have a different perception of his value.

Headed to the Padres is Victor Caratini as well, he struggled significantly with the bat hitting just .241/.333/.328 in 132 plate appearances showing very little power along with ranking in the 34th percentile for exit velocity and the seventh percentile for expected slugging. He had developed quite a rapport behind the dish with Darvish and with the Cubs depth at catching it's no surprised to see him moved. Caratini did post a 108 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 2019, so it's not like he's been unable to hit at the big league level.

For the Cubs they are getting a nice pitcher back in Zach Davies who posted a 2.73 ERA in 69.1 innings for the Friars in 2020. He's a similarly-molded pitcher to Kyle Hendricks with a fastball that averages only 88 MPH along with good control numbers. He has had consistent success limiting hard contact, but the Cubs only have control over him through this upcoming season and he is projected to earn anywhere between $6.3-$10.6 million according to MLBTR.

The four prospects the Cubs are getting: 17-year old SS Reginald Preciado, 20-year old SS Yeison Santana, 18-year old OF Owen Caissie, and 18-year old OF Ismael Mena are all considered lottery tickers as none of them have a single at-bat above rookie ball and two of them (Caissie and Mena) don't have any sort of professional statistics recorded.

On the surface this looks like an incredibly underwhelming haul for the Cubs as Preciado ranks as the highest prospect traded and he ranked just 11th on MLB.coms Top 30 Padres prospects, but it is worth noting that the Padres system is considered incredibly deep and they have a lot of riches to deal from.

Despite that it is incredibly disappointing that the Cubs are getting just their 11th, 13th, 15th, and 16th prospects. It was assumed from the outset that their top two prospects MacKanzie Gore and CJ Abrams were not part of the deal, but #4 prospect catcher Luis Campusano was rumored to be a part of the deal so it is very disappointing to not see him be a part of the final deal.

It seems like the Cubs are prioritizing quantity over quality in this one, which is only great if it pays off. They are sacrificing their chance to get a much more proven prospect to take a chance on hitting a home run on a lower level guy This also all but confirms the Cubs will likely be going into another long rebuilding stretch as all of these prospects they acquired are years off the big league level and will require a lot of development.


Thursday, December 17, 2020

Cubs sign Jonathan Holder

The Cubs have announced they have signed RHP Jonathan Holder to a non-guaranteed contract that will pay him $750,000 if he makes the big league roster according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. . Holder, 27, has struggled the past two seasons, but has had success in the past.

Holder was non-tendered by the Yankees after posting a 4.98 ERA in 18 appearances while striking out just 14 batters in 21.2 innings pitched compared to 11 walks. He just plain and simply didn't fool anyone as batters hit .281/.356/.449 against him. 

It's worth noting that his numbers are inflated thanks to a dreadful final three appearances of the season. In his first 16 appearances he posted a 2.08 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 17.1 innings pitched compared to eight walks, but in his final three appearances he allowed eight runs in four and a third innings striking out none and walking three while giving up a pair of home runs.

Hitters just plain and simple made more contact against him and stopped chasing pitches out of the zone. Even before his end of season collapse his strikeout numbers were down and walks were up. His zone contact rate jumped from 80 percent to 85.4 percent and his chase percentage dropped from 31.1 percent to 26.1 percent. His velocity was basically the same and he even saw a sharp increase in his groundball rate, so what gives?

Holder struggled in 2019 as well with a 6.31 ERA in 34 appearances and 41.1 innings pitched, but he also posted by far the best strikeout numbers of his career along with keeping his walk numbers in line with his career norms. His struggles can be partly explained by a huge spike in his home run rate and a horrifically unlucky 53.6 left on base percentage.

He does have a history of success in the past as he posted a 3.42 ERA in 97 appearances split between the 2017-18 season for the Yankees with his best trait being his control as he walked just 27 batters in 105.1 innings pitched. 

Overall its a great no-risk move for the Cubs, they're getting a young, first-year arbitration eligible reliever that has had success in the past on a very cheap contract. Now the Cubs will get a chance to look under the hood and see if they can reunlock the potential he's shown in the past.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Where does Jackie Bradley Jr. fit in the Cubs plans?

 A report from Jon Morosi of Fox Sports connected the Chicago Cubs to free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. It feels like the first time in a while the Cubs have been connected to a upper tier free agent, but how much of a fit is he for the Cubs right now?

Bradley, 30, is coming off his best offensive season since 2016 posting a .814 OPS in 55 games and 217 plate appearances he also hit 7 home runs and overall that translated to a 119 wRC+. Bradleys success comes from a notable improvement in his contact rate that saw him make contact in the zone 77.6 of the time compared to 73.8 percent of the time in 2019. His line drive rate of 23.6 percent was still below league average, and he saw a sharp increase in his ground ball rate to the highest of his career. His offensive success seems to be fueled by a career high .343 BABIP that is bound to come down in 2021.

His average exit velocity is on a three year downward trend and he is coming off a three year stretch of a .726, .717,. and .738 OPS. The improvements in his contact rate shouldn't be ignored, but it's not like he was barreling the ball consistently, his hard hit percentage was actually the lowest of his career and his .299 xwOBA suggested that a lot of his success was smoke and mirrors.

Despite the questions on offense, there is zero doubt on his defensive abilities as he is an absolutely elite center fielder with seven outs above average in the shortened season and he peaked at 15 during the 2017 season. He has a ton of range thanks to his speed, and would be am upgrade over Ian Happ, who would most likely move to left field if the Cubs do sign Bradley

He also turns 31 in April of 2021 and has seen a small but slightly noticeable drop in his sprint speed, which is bound to get even worse as he gets older. Considering he plays a position that requires a ton of range and athleticism it's hard to see the Cubs wanting to commit to him on more than a two or three year deal. A short team deal would make sense for the Cubs considering they are in a bit of a transitional period with several core players becoming free agents after both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

Overall it's hard to see the Cubs making a strong push to sign Bradley Jr., unless they can get him on a modestly cheap and short contract. The Cubs do have a need in the outfield, but it's also fair to question whether he can repeat his offensive success. The defense would most likely be as good as ever, but he is also at an age where you start to wonder how long that is going to last.

Thursday, December 10, 2020

Cubs take Gray Fenter in Rule V draft

 Today was the Rule V draft which gives MLB organizations the opportunity to select an unprotected player from a different organization.

The Cubs drafted 24-year old RHP Gray Fenter from the Baltimore Orioles organization, and he is certainly an interesting pick. He has not thrown a pitch above A-ball despite being a seventh round pick in the 2015 draft.

He's pitched quite well at the A-ball level with a 2.90 ERA among 36 appearances (19 starts) and 121 innings. He has shown good stuff striking out 123 and allowing just four home runs, he did walk 56 batters, but he made up for it by allowing just 92 hits. 

If there had been a minor league season in 2020 he likely would've been able to get up to the Double-A level, but no one really knows what sort of progress he has made since the 2019 season. It's a good "why not?" move for the Cubs as they get to take a flier on a young arm who hasn't really gotten a chance to prove himself at the upper levels

In a scouting report for Birdwatcher, Nick Stevens described him as: "That curveball is something else. His big 12-6 curve that works well with a low-90s fastball coupled to produce an effective outing to kick off his 2019 campaign. He needed 63 pitches to get through his first outing, throwing 35 strikes. Of those 35 strikes, 12 were swings and misses (34%). Left-handed hitters went just 2-12 against the right-handed Fenter,"


Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Cubs lose Eugene Emeralds

 After six seasons with the Chicago Cubs organization the Eugene Emeralds are longer affiliated with the Chicago Cubs and will become an affiliate of the San Francisco Giants organization according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.

The Emeralds had been affiliated with the Cubs since the 2015 season and had won the Northwest League title twice in both 2016 and 2018. 

The full statement from the Emeralds:

"The Eugene Emeralds would like to give our sincere gratitude to the Chicago Cubs organization for being an outstanding partner for the past 6 years. The immediate impact the Cubs had on this organization is undeniable. In 2016, in only our second season of affiliation with Chicago, the Emeralds ended a 41-year Northwest League Championship drought posting a final record of 54-22. The success continued in 2017 with another trip to the championship round and again in 2018 where the Emeralds won the Northwest League title. During those past 6 seasons, our fans have witnessed future and current Major League Baseball stars like Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Adbert Alzolay, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Adbert Alzolay and Chase Strumpf start their careers right here in Eugene. We can’t imagine there being a better era to have partnered with the Cubs as they not only ended our championship drought but also experienced their historic World Series Championship in 2016.

From past baseball legends like Bob Boone, Greg Lizinski, Tom Gordon, Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt to the hundreds of recent Emerald alumi, Eugene, Oregon has been a proving ground for baseball. To say we are excited for the next chapter of Ems Baseball is putting it mildly. We are absolutely thrilled to have baseball back in 2021 and cannot wait to showcase our award-winning gameday experience for our fans at PK Park next year."

In other Cubs affiliate news they have extended an invitation to the Iowa Cubs, Tennessee Smokies, Myrtle Beach Pelicans, and South Bend Cubs to remain with the organization, all of these offers are expected to be accepted. Notably, the Pelicans and Cubs will switch levels with the Pelicans becoming a Low-A team and the Cubs becoming a High-A team.

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Cubs hire Willie Harris as third base coach

 With Will Venable departing for the Boston Red Sox the Cubs had a vacancy for their third base coach position, and according to Buster Olney of ESPN they are hiring former MLB utilityman Willie Harris to fill that role.

Harris, 42, spent 12 seasons split between seven teams hitting .238/.327/.346 in 2816 career plate appearances. He was quite useful in the fact that he was a very versatile defensively getting significant playing time in both the infield and outfield. He was respectable on the basepaths as well going 107-147 on steal attempts (a 73 percent success rate).

After his playing career he started his minor league coaching career for the Chicago White Sox organization in 2017 as the manager of the Winston-Salem Dash. After the season concluded he moved to the San Francisco Giants organization and spent two years as the manager for the Double-A Richmond Flying Squirrels. 

After 2019 he moved to the Cincinnati Reds as their new base running and outfield coordinator, and now will take over a position that has been a bit of a revolving door being the third different coach since the conclusion of the 2017 season when Gary Jones departed.

Thursday, December 3, 2020

Report: Len Kasper leaving Cubs

 This will come as a shock to many, but Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that the long time TV voice of the Cubs Len Kasper will depart the Cubs organization to become the new radio play-by-play announcer for the Chicago White Sox.

Kasper joined the Cubs from the Florida Marlins organization after the 2004 season as the successor to Chip Caray and he has been in that role ever since. He saw the peak of the Ramirez-Soriano-Lee era where they won back-to-back division crowns, he saw the Theo Epstein era play out from start to finish, and was the TV voice of the 2016 team that won the World Series.

Losing Kasper is a momental blow to the organization, he is by far one of the best play-by-play broadcasters in baseball and has basically become synonymous with the Cubs organization. His use of analytics was great for the hardcore fans and helped increase the understanding of more casual fans.


Here are some of his highlights throughout the years:

Aramis Ramirez walk-off

Fukudome Opening Day Home Run

Carlos Zambrano completes his no-hitter

Kris Bryant walks off the Rockies