In the first half of 2018 Albert Almora could not be stopped. He hit a very impressive .319/.357/.409 and at one point was leading the league in batting. The second half, however, was a massive fall off as he hit just .232/.267/.280, a massive fall off and one that raises some questions going into 2019.
One of Almoras bright spots offensively was his ability to hit lefties, he hit a very impressive .295/.340/.402, and while the power was bit low, that was something that afflicted the Cubs as a whole so it'll be interesting to see if that bounces back in 2019.
Almoras power was the weakest portion of his game in 2018, his xSLG of .315 was one of the worst in all of baseball and his 5 barrels in 369 plate appearances was equally horrendous. His hard contact rate of 27.4 percent ranked in the bottom 10 percent in all of baseball. That's all despite his launch angle and BABIP remaining at basically the same level as 2017.
Where Almora shined in 2018 was his defense. Early in the season he was considered a prime candidate for a Gold Glove award thanks to some spectacular catches According to Baseball Savant Almora's defense was incredibly impressive as he ranked 7th in all of baseball with 12 outs above average, and his catch rate of 93 percent was 4th in all of baseball.
Almora is probably going to receive the majority of plate appearances for the Cubs in center field. Though the Cubs might favor Ian Happ in situations against a tough righty. If he can return to his first half numbers he would be a huge addition to the Cubs lineup, but if he struggles he could find his playing time reduced or even find himself back in AAA.
2019 is going to be a make or break year for Almora, the Cubs already have a glut at outfield (and that's not including the potential addition of Bryce Harper) so if he has a down season going into his first arbitration season the Cubs might look to trade him or cut bait with him.
Thursday, December 6, 2018
Sunday, December 2, 2018
Cubs should take a look at Zach Duke
One of the more notable losses the Cubs will face this offseason is the loss of lefty reliever Justin Wilson. Although his control was awful at time, he managed to post a 3.46 ERA in 54.2 innings for the Cubs, including holding lefties to a .241/.319/.345 slash.
Like every season their is a glut of free agent relievers on the market, and one of those relievers is Zach Duke. On the outset his numbers aren't that impressive. He posted a 4.15 ERA in 52 innings split between the Twins and Mariners. But a deeper look at the numbers suggest he pitched much better than his numbers indicated.
His xFIP of 3.74 and BABIP against of .394 suggest that he may have been a victim of both bad luck and poor defense behind him. He also had some pretty severe splits as righties slashed .311/.403/.370 against him compared to just .220/.283/.319 against lefties. His K-BB% of 12.5% was fairly solid and he posted the highest ground ball percentage of his career at 59.4 percent.
Duke turns 36 in April so age is not on his side, but he has generally been fairly reliable since he made the full conversion to a reliever in 2012. He wouldn't be the most glamorous addition to the Cubs team, but he's a guy I think the Cubs should definitely be looking at as a cheaper option to add to their bullpen.
Like every season their is a glut of free agent relievers on the market, and one of those relievers is Zach Duke. On the outset his numbers aren't that impressive. He posted a 4.15 ERA in 52 innings split between the Twins and Mariners. But a deeper look at the numbers suggest he pitched much better than his numbers indicated.
His xFIP of 3.74 and BABIP against of .394 suggest that he may have been a victim of both bad luck and poor defense behind him. He also had some pretty severe splits as righties slashed .311/.403/.370 against him compared to just .220/.283/.319 against lefties. His K-BB% of 12.5% was fairly solid and he posted the highest ground ball percentage of his career at 59.4 percent.
Duke turns 36 in April so age is not on his side, but he has generally been fairly reliable since he made the full conversion to a reliever in 2012. He wouldn't be the most glamorous addition to the Cubs team, but he's a guy I think the Cubs should definitely be looking at as a cheaper option to add to their bullpen.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
Cubs trade Tommy La Stella to the Angels
The Cubs have traded 29-year old pinch hitting star Tommy "3 AM" La Stella to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for cash or a player to be named later.
La Stellas numbers look just mediocre on the outset, he hit .266/.340/.331 in 192 plate appearances, but his primary value came off the bench where he led the league with 24 pinch hits, which is incredibly valuable especially in late game situations. He had very good bat control, walking in 8.9 percent of his plate appearances while striking out in just 14.1 percent, a very impressive skill in this day and age.
The move comes at the heels of the Ronald Torreyes trade, and ultimately fell victim to a roster crunch. Unlike Torreyes, he is very limited defensively as he primarily played only second and third with the Cubs and graded below average at both of those positions. La Stella was projected to earn $300k more than Torreyes in arbitration, so the move will save the team a bit of money.
La Stella, was a fan (and Jesse Roger) favorite. He will conclude his Cub career with a very solid .273/.356/.397 line. He was an important member of the 2016 team that won the World Series, and although he had his send down controversy he will be remembered fondly for his knack for hitting off the bench.
La Stellas numbers look just mediocre on the outset, he hit .266/.340/.331 in 192 plate appearances, but his primary value came off the bench where he led the league with 24 pinch hits, which is incredibly valuable especially in late game situations. He had very good bat control, walking in 8.9 percent of his plate appearances while striking out in just 14.1 percent, a very impressive skill in this day and age.
The move comes at the heels of the Ronald Torreyes trade, and ultimately fell victim to a roster crunch. Unlike Torreyes, he is very limited defensively as he primarily played only second and third with the Cubs and graded below average at both of those positions. La Stella was projected to earn $300k more than Torreyes in arbitration, so the move will save the team a bit of money.
La Stella, was a fan (and Jesse Roger) favorite. He will conclude his Cub career with a very solid .273/.356/.397 line. He was an important member of the 2016 team that won the World Series, and although he had his send down controversy he will be remembered fondly for his knack for hitting off the bench.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Cubs acquire Ronald Torreyes from Yankees
The Chicago Cubs made a small, but interesting move today acquiring recently DFA'd infield Ronald Torreyes from the Yankees in exchange for a player to be named later.
Torreyes, just 26, hit only .280/.294/.370 in 102 plate appearances for the 100-win Yankees. The move made sense on the Yankees part as they had already had a glut of infielders and are rumored to be interested in star infielder Manny Machado.
The move is interesting from the Cubs perspective as they already have players like Javier Baez, David Bote, Addison Russell, and Tommy La Stella as options on the left side of the infield. However, with Russell potentially being a non-tenure candidate due to both his domestic violence suspension and poor offensive performance the move makes sense from a depth perspective as he can play short if Baez, for example, gets injured.
Torreyes value comes in his defensive versatility as he has garnered a solid amount of innings at second, third, and short throughout his major league career. His best play has come at third where he has a 1.8 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). He could easily slot in for the Cubs at any of those three positions as a backup/injury replacement.
His offense is a bit of a concern as he is a high contact/no walk or power type of player, but he hasn't had the results that shows he can stick in the major leagues. His career OPS+ of 82 is significantly below average, and he has just 40 extra base hits in 615 career plate appearances. He seems to be more of a guy that is willing to put the ball in play and hope the ball will find a whole. He doesn't particularly hit the ball very had with an average exit velocity of 81.7 MPH in 2018, and has a high ground ball rate at 53.4%.
It's a smart move for the Cubs as they try to shore up their infield with some additional depth as they brace for either an Addison Russell non-tender or a 40-game suspension to start the 2019 campaign. Torreyes is still young, with team control and an option, and the positional versatility that the Cubs seem to love.
Torreyes, just 26, hit only .280/.294/.370 in 102 plate appearances for the 100-win Yankees. The move made sense on the Yankees part as they had already had a glut of infielders and are rumored to be interested in star infielder Manny Machado.
The move is interesting from the Cubs perspective as they already have players like Javier Baez, David Bote, Addison Russell, and Tommy La Stella as options on the left side of the infield. However, with Russell potentially being a non-tenure candidate due to both his domestic violence suspension and poor offensive performance the move makes sense from a depth perspective as he can play short if Baez, for example, gets injured.
Torreyes value comes in his defensive versatility as he has garnered a solid amount of innings at second, third, and short throughout his major league career. His best play has come at third where he has a 1.8 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). He could easily slot in for the Cubs at any of those three positions as a backup/injury replacement.
His offense is a bit of a concern as he is a high contact/no walk or power type of player, but he hasn't had the results that shows he can stick in the major leagues. His career OPS+ of 82 is significantly below average, and he has just 40 extra base hits in 615 career plate appearances. He seems to be more of a guy that is willing to put the ball in play and hope the ball will find a whole. He doesn't particularly hit the ball very had with an average exit velocity of 81.7 MPH in 2018, and has a high ground ball rate at 53.4%.
It's a smart move for the Cubs as they try to shore up their infield with some additional depth as they brace for either an Addison Russell non-tender or a 40-game suspension to start the 2019 campaign. Torreyes is still young, with team control and an option, and the positional versatility that the Cubs seem to love.
Monday, October 15, 2018
Cubs to hire Anthony Iapoce as hitting coach
According to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram the Chicago Cubs are hiring Texas Rangers' hitting coach Anthony Iapoce away from the team to take the same role with the Cubs.
Iapoce, 45, has been the hitting coach for the Rangers for three years overseeing an offense that ranked in the top half in the American League each year he was there, though they did fall off a bit in 2018.
In 2018 the Rangers ranked seventh in the American League in runs scored, eighth in home runs, fourth in walks, and 12th in total bases. Some concerning stats are that the Rangers were dead last in hits and second to last in batting average and strikeouts, but those really don't matter if they were still producing runs.
The move brings back a familiar face to the Cubs as Iapoce spent three years with the organization as special assistant to the GM overseeing the Cubs hitting program. During that tenure he oversaw current Cubs mainstays like Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras among others.
Overall it seems to be a refreshing change from Chili Davis's contact at all costs approach, as Iapoce will likely bring the focus back to hitting the crap out of the ball and giving launch angles the attention it deserves.
There are a lot of question marks surrounding the offense heading into 2019, but a good hitting coach will be able to recognize potential problems and fix them before they cripple a players ability.
Iapoce, 45, has been the hitting coach for the Rangers for three years overseeing an offense that ranked in the top half in the American League each year he was there, though they did fall off a bit in 2018.
In 2018 the Rangers ranked seventh in the American League in runs scored, eighth in home runs, fourth in walks, and 12th in total bases. Some concerning stats are that the Rangers were dead last in hits and second to last in batting average and strikeouts, but those really don't matter if they were still producing runs.
The move brings back a familiar face to the Cubs as Iapoce spent three years with the organization as special assistant to the GM overseeing the Cubs hitting program. During that tenure he oversaw current Cubs mainstays like Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras among others.
Overall it seems to be a refreshing change from Chili Davis's contact at all costs approach, as Iapoce will likely bring the focus back to hitting the crap out of the ball and giving launch angles the attention it deserves.
There are a lot of question marks surrounding the offense heading into 2019, but a good hitting coach will be able to recognize potential problems and fix them before they cripple a players ability.
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Cubs fire Chili Davis
After a disappointing season that saw the Cubs finish second in their division and lose the one game Wild Card playoff to the Colorado Rockies the Cubs have made their first change.
According to multiple reports on Twitter the Chicago Cubs have fired hitting coach Chili Davis after a season that was marred with offensive inconsistency.
Last week, I went into detail on the Cubs offensive struggles including their significant drop off in the second half, and especially in the final month of the season. Ultimately Davis was a gamble that didn't pay off, he was a highly respected coach that just couldn't get it done with this group of hitters.
It will be interesting to see what direction the Cubs move towards, their previous hitting coach John Mallee focused more on power at the expense of a higher strikeout rate, but Davis focused on contact with a lower strikeout rate at the expense of their power. It's easier said than done, but the Cubs should try to focus on a coach that will let the players be themselves and only make adjustments when it is hindering them from living up to their full potential.
For the rest of the coaching staff, Carrie Muskat tweeted that an announcement will come at a later date, but I wouldn't expect too many changes there.
According to multiple reports on Twitter the Chicago Cubs have fired hitting coach Chili Davis after a season that was marred with offensive inconsistency.
Last week, I went into detail on the Cubs offensive struggles including their significant drop off in the second half, and especially in the final month of the season. Ultimately Davis was a gamble that didn't pay off, he was a highly respected coach that just couldn't get it done with this group of hitters.
It will be interesting to see what direction the Cubs move towards, their previous hitting coach John Mallee focused more on power at the expense of a higher strikeout rate, but Davis focused on contact with a lower strikeout rate at the expense of their power. It's easier said than done, but the Cubs should try to focus on a coach that will let the players be themselves and only make adjustments when it is hindering them from living up to their full potential.
For the rest of the coaching staff, Carrie Muskat tweeted that an announcement will come at a later date, but I wouldn't expect too many changes there.
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
So what happened to the offense?
The 2018 Cubs season ended on a fitting note, three swinging strikeouts of Terrence Gore, Javier Baez, and Albert Almora Jr. It concluded a stretch of scoring 2 runs in 22 innings in the two biggest games of the season. It creates the biggest question mark for this off season. What happened to the offense, and what is the plan to fix it?
In the first half of the season it seemed like the Cubs offense was gonna keep doing their thing, they scored 476 runs in the first half which was good for first in the National League and fourth in all of baseball. They had the fifth highest walk rate and ninth lowest strikeout rate.Their only problem was a lack of power, but they were still getting on base and producing runs.
However, things fell apart in the second half for the Cubs, they scored just 285 runs in the second half, which ranked just 19th in all of baseball. Their walk rate dipped significantly along with a rise in their strikeout rate. Their power, which was already an issue in the first half, became even worse in the second half with just a .140 ISO which ranked 27th in all of baseball. Their overall wRC+ for the second half was 89, which means on average their offense was 11 percent worse than league average.
If you just go by Septembers numbers the Cubs got even worse, their walk rate dropped, their strikeout rate climbed, and their power somehow got even worse. Obviously it's easy to blame the 30 games in 30 days stretch, but when it comes to crunch time they just did not get the job done and now they will go home ending a stretch of three consecutive NLCS appearances.
A look at the Cubs plate discipline stats paint a grim picture, for the overall season the Cubs had the sixth highest outside swing percentage, 14th in zone swing percentage, 22nd in overall contact, and had the 10th most swinging strikes. Their numbers actually rank pretty similar to the 2017 team, but that's a problem when the Cubs changed their hitting philosophy for the 2018 season.
Of course it wasn't all bad for the Cubs. Javier Baez had a breakout season and is a legitimate MVP contender, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist both bounced back in a big way, and Anthony Rizzo came back from a terrible start to have another very good season.
The easy scapegoat for this is hitting coach Chili Davis, who was brought in after being fired by the Red Sox after a disappointing 2017 season. The Red Sox offense immediately improved in 2018 after adding JD Martinez, which is possible could be due to firing Davis, but it's also impossible to tell. It's possible that with velocity becoming an increasingly important factor in todays game, that Davis's prioritizing contact over power philosophy just doesn't work in todays game.
The Cubs brought Davis in to increase contact, but the problem is that it has come at the cost of the Cubs power and their ability to grind out at bats consistently throughout the game. The Cubs made Kyle Freeland throw just 82 pitches (60 strikes) in 6.2 innings, which seems to be the exact opposite mojo of the team that won the World Series in 2016.
The Cubs have some big decisions to make this off season and it should start with making a change at hitting coach and going after Nationals star OF Bryce Harper. It's clear that whatever the Cubs tried to do on offense this year did more harm than good, and signing a big time hitter like Harper could help jump start the offense and potentially lead to another ring for the North Side.
In the first half of the season it seemed like the Cubs offense was gonna keep doing their thing, they scored 476 runs in the first half which was good for first in the National League and fourth in all of baseball. They had the fifth highest walk rate and ninth lowest strikeout rate.Their only problem was a lack of power, but they were still getting on base and producing runs.
However, things fell apart in the second half for the Cubs, they scored just 285 runs in the second half, which ranked just 19th in all of baseball. Their walk rate dipped significantly along with a rise in their strikeout rate. Their power, which was already an issue in the first half, became even worse in the second half with just a .140 ISO which ranked 27th in all of baseball. Their overall wRC+ for the second half was 89, which means on average their offense was 11 percent worse than league average.
If you just go by Septembers numbers the Cubs got even worse, their walk rate dropped, their strikeout rate climbed, and their power somehow got even worse. Obviously it's easy to blame the 30 games in 30 days stretch, but when it comes to crunch time they just did not get the job done and now they will go home ending a stretch of three consecutive NLCS appearances.
A look at the Cubs plate discipline stats paint a grim picture, for the overall season the Cubs had the sixth highest outside swing percentage, 14th in zone swing percentage, 22nd in overall contact, and had the 10th most swinging strikes. Their numbers actually rank pretty similar to the 2017 team, but that's a problem when the Cubs changed their hitting philosophy for the 2018 season.
Of course it wasn't all bad for the Cubs. Javier Baez had a breakout season and is a legitimate MVP contender, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist both bounced back in a big way, and Anthony Rizzo came back from a terrible start to have another very good season.
The easy scapegoat for this is hitting coach Chili Davis, who was brought in after being fired by the Red Sox after a disappointing 2017 season. The Red Sox offense immediately improved in 2018 after adding JD Martinez, which is possible could be due to firing Davis, but it's also impossible to tell. It's possible that with velocity becoming an increasingly important factor in todays game, that Davis's prioritizing contact over power philosophy just doesn't work in todays game.
The Cubs brought Davis in to increase contact, but the problem is that it has come at the cost of the Cubs power and their ability to grind out at bats consistently throughout the game. The Cubs made Kyle Freeland throw just 82 pitches (60 strikes) in 6.2 innings, which seems to be the exact opposite mojo of the team that won the World Series in 2016.
The Cubs have some big decisions to make this off season and it should start with making a change at hitting coach and going after Nationals star OF Bryce Harper. It's clear that whatever the Cubs tried to do on offense this year did more harm than good, and signing a big time hitter like Harper could help jump start the offense and potentially lead to another ring for the North Side.
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