Tuesday, March 29, 2016

The Cubs final 25-man roster and thoughts

Earlier today the Cubs revealed their final 25-man roster and included in it were Matt Szczur, Tommy La Stella, and Neil Ramirez along with the moves was the announcement that Javier Baez would start the season on the 15-day disabled list with a thumb contusion.

The battle for the final roster spot seemed to be between La Stella/Szczur but the injury to Baez opened the door for them to both made the roster. Szczur probably had the upper hand anyway due to the fact that he was out of options, but both had been injured early on in the Spring and had recently returned to game action. Both have had good spring with Szczur going 7-16 with a pair of home runs and La Stella hitting 5-16 with a walk. Although the best option would be to have Baez healthy and having to choose between La Stella and Szczur. Both of them should be able to make an impact off the bench and give the Cubs extra flexibility.

Neil Ramirez had a lights out season in 2014 but seemed to be relying on a bit of luck to get through it with a 3.48 xFIP compared to his 1.44 ERA and a LOB% a well above average 82%. In 2015 he was on and off the disabled list with shoulder and abdominal issues and was limited to just 19 appearances. He pitched well in those games with a 3.21 ERA (4.04 xFIP) but it wasn't enough to guarantee him a roster spot for 2016. He hasn't pitched particularly well in Spring Training with a 12.60 ERA in 5 innings giving up 7 earned runs and striking out only four while walking one.

Overall I think this is the best roster the Cubs could come up with the Baez injury. They have a player that can play every outfield position in Szczur and who can play two infield positions in La Stella. I think Szczur was going to be on the roster no matter what because the Cubs didn't want to risk losing him early on to a team like the Phillies who are looking for outfielders. Ramirez has been battling a velocity drop only throwing in the early 90s this spring and not generating as many strikeouts as he did a few years ago so the Cubs will get an extended look at him early on in the year, but will have to decide on his future with the organization early on. I think he still has a ton of potential to be a top notch reliever in the NL but he will have to earn the playing time out of the 'pen.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Cubs trade Welington Castillo to Mariners

The Cubs made a trade today sending catcher Welington Castillo to the Seattle Mariners for reliever Yoervis Medina. Castillo had long been the subject of trade rumors dating back to when the Cubs signed David Ross to a 2-year contract back in December.

Castillo, 27, hit .163/.234/.349 with a .172 BABIP in only 47 plate appearances. His playing time had been limited due to Montero-Ross being the Cubs primary catchers and while his pitch framing had improved significantly from last year (albeit a small sample size) he simply was the odd man out.

Medina, 26, is coming off a pair of excellent seasons with the Mariners where he posted a combined 2.81 ERA in 129 appearances and 125 innings pitched. He is off to a decent start in 2015 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 appearances although a 5.37 xFIP tells a different tale. His biggest issue has been his control with a 5.25 BB/9 so far this year and his strikeouts have been down at 6.75.

The move is a good one for the Cubs as they already had enough major-league depth at catcher and they needed bullpen depth to have options in case the Cubs ran into a situation in which the bullpen is gassed, although I think this is more than just depth because if Medina can figure out his control he could end up being a solid piece in the Cubs pen.

Monday, May 18, 2015

Cubs DFA Coke, option Schlitter

The Cubs made a few moves during todays off day designating Phil Coke for assignment, optioning Brian Schlitter to AAA Iowa, and recalling Tsuyoshi Wada and Junior Lake from Iowa.

Phil Coke, 32, was signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal at the beginning of Spring Training and made the roster, but struggled posting a 6.30 ERA. His BABIP was way inflated at .406 and that made his FIP 3.55 and xFIP 2.95, which are very good indicators that he had been getting unlucky.

Schlitter, 29, struggled as well posting a 8.10 ERA in 9 appearances but a .400 BABIP and a 6.75 FIP and 3.95 xFIP suggests that he was going through some bad luck.

Wada, 34, is making his first appearance of the year after starting the year on the disabled list with a groin injury. He had a fantastic rookie year for the Cubs last year with a 3.25 ERA in 13 starts and 69.1 innings pitched.

Lake, 25, has received 14 plate appearances this year for the Cubs going 4-14 with a double and a steal. He has spent the majority of his time in AAA Iowa with a .250/.353/.291 slash line in 85 plate appearances and a 26% strikeout rate and a 14% walk rate.

The Cubs 40-man roster stands at 38.

The Cubs need a bench bat and fast

Coming into todays off day the Cubs are in second place in the NL Central with a 21-16 record just 4 games behind the pesky Cardinals. But there is one glaring issue on their roster, the bench,

 The Cubs roster makeup is currently 14 pitchers and 11 position players, yes the bullpen is gassed but that only gives the Cubs room for 3 bench-players, 2 of whom are catchers. The current bench ( David Ross, Welington Castillo, and Jonathan Herrera) is a combined 2-26 with 4 walks and 9 strikeouts. Overall Cubs pinch-hitters are hitting .143/.250/.222 and a tOPS+ of 33, but a BABIP of .190 suggests that luck is having a slight affect on the stats.

The most notable affect is the lack of pinch-runners, if the Cubs go to the ninth in a close game and one of the slower members of the team reaches base there really isn't any options to go to off the bench.

 The Cubs should really consider going back to 13 pitchers now that Travis Wood has been moved to the bullpen and him and Edwin Jackson could be considered long-relievers now and Joe Maddon has stated he isn't afraid to use Wood in other situations as well.

For the extra bench player they should recall outfielder Matt Szczur who, despite a .172/.242/.241 split has shown good speed and defense in the outfield.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Cubs trade Brett Jackson to Diamondbacks

The Cubs made a minor trade today sending former top prospect Brett Jackson to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Blake Cooper according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

Jackson, 26, was hitting .210/.298/.348 in 252 AAA plate appearances with an eye-popping 94 strikeouts and only 24 walks. Jackson was once considered a Cubs top prospect but his inability to make consistent contact affected his ability to really show his talents.

Cooper, 26,  has also struggled for the Diamondbacks AAA affiliate posting an ERA of 6.00 in 17 appearances for the Reno Aces after dominating for their AA affiliate. His primary issues has been his control with 17 walks in just 24 innings on top of 20 strikeouts.

I think this is a smart deal for both sides as both players can still turn out to be fairly solid players if they can rebound. Jackson did struggle in his MLB debut with a .175/.303/.342 line in 2012 so it will be interesting to see if the Diamondbacks can rework his swing to make more contact. I think Cooper has the potential to turn into a fringe reliever at the big league level if he can improve on his horrendous walk rate in AAA.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

What to expect from Javier Baez?

The Cubs have called up top prospect Javier Baez from AAA Iowa to make his major league debut at second base for the Cubs. Baez, 21, is hitting .260/.323/.510 in 434 plate appearances in AAA Iowa and has rebounded after an awful start where he hit .172/.238/.379 in April but managed to hit .300/.344/.600 in July for the I-Cubs.

Baez is the first player from the "Core Four" to make the big leagues and was Jim Hendrys last first round pick back in 2011 and shot through the Cubs minor league system by hitting 37 home runs last season between Class-A Daytona and AA Tennessee.

Of course it is unrealistic to expect Javier Baez to come up and hit 4 home runs in his debut especially since he got off to a slow start at every stop in the professional level. I think Baez will get off to a slow start in August with a .163/.211/.352 line in August but improve slightly and hit .211/.265/.400 to finish out the season. These next 2 months are important but it is also important to remember that he is just 21 years old and still has a few years to develop and adjust before he could be labelled a bust.

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Cubs trade Samardzija, Hammel to A's for prospects and pitcher

The first domino of the trade deadline frenzy fell on Friday when the Cubs dealt Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel for top A's prospects Addison Russell, Billy McKinney and pitcher Dan Straily with a player to be named later included.

The deal makes perfect sense for both teams as the A's needed 2 front line pitchers that could help them in their run towards the division crown and it gives the Cubs two top prospects with the potential for a 3rd one to be included.

The Cubs are getting a potential superstar in Addison Russell who was often ranked in the top 15 by multiple baseball resources including MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball America. He has the numbers in AA to prove it although it is a small sample size with a .333/.439/.500 in only 48 at bats. The Cubs also get a player who was often ranked as the A's #2 prospect in Billy McKinney, 19, who has been hitting fairly well in High-A with a .240/.330/.400 line with 10 home runs and 5 stolen bases. This only continues the Cubs way of acquiring offensive weapons to build into an amazing offensive juggernaut and building a team off of scoring runs.

The Cubs also got a young major league pitcher in Dan Straily, 25, who has spent parts of 3 seasons with the A's big league team including 152.1 good innings back in 2013. Although he has slightly struggled in 2014 with a 4.93 ERA his FIP suggests that it could be much worse. His issue this year has been the long ball and a 2.1 HR/9 rate proves that with 9 home runs surrendered in 38.1 innings.

On the A's side they are getting 2 proven players in Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel who both were having great seasons for the Cubs and have proven to be excellent pitchers who could easily help the A's as they are trying to advance past the ALDS for the first time since 2006.

There are some positional concerns involving this trade as the Cubs already have Starlin Castro at shortstop and Javier Baez already in the minor leagues so the decision to add another shortstop is questionable but the Cubs can always shift Baez to another position and Russell to another position as well.