The biggest Spring Training battle for the Cubs has been the final spot in the starting rotation, with several guys competing each with their own merits for the spot.
Adbert Alzolay is the prospect on the cusp of big league success, Colin Rea was the 2019 PCL Pitcher of the Year, Alec Mills has been effective in short stints with the big league team, and Tyler Chatwood, the veteran who had been somewhat of a disappointment.
The Cubs cut Alzolay and Rea today, leaving the battle between Chatwood and Mills, and Chatwood seeming to have the edge as of right now.
During his start today, against a Giants lineup that features several regulars, Chatwood was excellent. Pitching three and two thirds innings of shutout baseball with four strikeouts and most importantly: zero walks. In total this Spring he has posted a 1.96 ERA in nine and two thirds innings pitched with 11 strikeouts and just two walks along with allowing two home runs.
Chatwood has been a frustrating player for Cubs fans over the first two years of his contract. His first year was an absolute disaster as he walked an incredible 95 batters in 103.2 innings to lead the league, he was pretty effective as a swing man last year posting a 3.76 ERA in 76.2 innings pitched with 74 strikeouts and keeping the walks mostly in check allowing just 37.
He has always had the stuff to succeed at the big league level, with a fastball that averaged 96.3 MPH and a curveball that has constantly ranked at the top for spin rate. His problem is that he hasn't been able to throw strikes consistently which has led to some less than stellar big league numbers.
Chatwood was already presumed to have the edge for the final rotation spot due to his previous big league history and the fact that he is owed $13 million for this upcoming season, but he is letting his results on the field do all the talking and as of now he definitely deserves the spot.
That isn't to say Mills hasn't been good this Spring. In his 4 appearances (3 starts) he has posted a 0.93 ERA in nine and two thirds innings pitched with seven strikeouts along with three walks and four hits allowed.
Mills big league numbers from 2019 look excellent with a 2.75 ERA in 36 innings along with an impressive 42 strikeouts to 11 walks, but his underlying numbers are a bit concerning. He has a a xFIP of 3.98 thanks to a completely unsustainable 90.5 strand percentage. His lack of overpowering stuff is also a potential red flag.
If Mills doesn't win the job it's possible he could serve the role that Chatwood served in 2019, which was multi-inning relief pitcher/occasional spot starter. It could be a good chance for Mills to finally prove himself in the big leagues, he has been fairly effective in his short stints, but has never gotten an extended opportunity to prove himself.
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